20,000 points is quite an accomplishment. To be one of 37 players in the history of the NBA to get to that mark is nothing to scoff at. Also, Basketball's Hall of Fame takes into account amateur accomplishments. Vince went to two Final Fours while at UNC, although he didn't win in either of them. He's been an 8 time all-star in the NBA. He was THE most exciting player in the league during his time in Toronto and likely has the best montage of in-game dunks in league history.
All that said, I don't think he's a HOFer. He just hasn't done enough when it's really mattered. This has been the knock on Vince for most of his career, and we witnessed it first hand last season. I tried to defend the guy and say "he's never been on a team this good, he's focused, he'll come through when it matters for US". But he didn't. And he won't.
The guy is a great player. Unbelievably talented. More physical tools than you can imagine. But mentally, he's just not there. I think he has enough credentials to make it into the Hall, but I think his reputation took a huge hit when his flaws were laid out for all to see while here in Orlando. Bottom line,, I wouldn't be surprised either way. I'd be happy for him if he does get in, he's one of the nicest guys you'll ever meet.