Bhnole's Preseason Fiscal State of the Magic address

[Soul Bro 1,422]

Bump ... best thread in a while.

[Marc Acres 3:16 418]

If Lux tax is a concern, and it certainly seems that way then we had better move Hedo. We have to remember that we are not just bidding against teams below the cap, we are also bidding against teams overseas. This is a quote from Gabe Muoneke's blog on Hoopshype.com "People accept the money and basketball being impossible to match outside the NBA and for the most part they

[Ned Ryerson 94]

Bhnole, a la Gilbert Arenas: "Quality posts!"

[Mr Charisma 0]

Alot of good additional comments have been added.

 

I am not at all against trading Hedo so, to that point, I definitely agree with Soul Bro and Marc.

 

I expect that the Magic are wanting to start the season and let Hedo again show that he is playing at the same level as last year. This reduces the "One-year Wonder" concern that other GMs might have.

 

As the season progresses, I expect that injuries may play a big part. First off, if Shard gets hurt, God forbid, then the option of trading Hedo will likely come off the table (although we have enough depth and flexibility between Peitrus, Bogans, Lee and JJ to cover the position with some level of quality).

 

But if a team that is contending either has an injury to it's SF, or simply has a weakness there, Hedo can bring us quality in return.

 

What is most important for Otis to avoid is the situation where he waits too long, and then is faced with either getting lower value for him or risk losing him with no compensation at all.

 

The Magic roster is not deep enough for us to absorb that type of mistake.

 

As far as Battie goes, I doubt there are few that aren't anxious to see how much impact he can have playing along side Dwight, but I still think that Small Ball is still the primary method of this team winning.

 

If we go to a conventional lineup, many of the mismatches we can cause will go away, and I'm not convinced that if we play a conventional lineup that our roster is so talent-laden that we would become an elite team. A good team, yes; but to ignore the success that the mismatches granted us last year would be a mistake. If we need to go to a big lineup in certain matchups fine. But first I would make that team prove to me that they can stop us when we play Small Ball.

 

My final vote in favor of Small Ball centers around the fact that year-after-year the Magic have either changed methodology or the coaching staff itself. Well, except for when Brian Hill was here. The only adjustment that man ever made in his entire life as a head coach was having to adjust to a new clipboard after he broke his old one. My point being, the team spent all last year adapting to this new style. How about having some continuity and allow them to build on what they have already learned.

[Drain-O 369]

Absolutely fantastic thread bhnole.

 

I would like to add a couple of points of my own.

 

I know OKC and Memphis have cap space this summer but I really do not see these teams spending money until the 2010 off-season. 2010 is like the free agent lottery. Besides guys like Lebron, Wade, Bosh there are others like Dirk, Joe Johnson, etc. that are going to be very attractive. Now that is two seasons away and they all could sign extensions but I think the teams with space will see how it shakes out. Would you rather give Shawn Marion the max or say Chris Bosh?? Again a pipedream but an option.

 

Here is Chad Ford's 2009 free agent list and I really cannot see any of these guys making a ton of money by changing teams except maybe Boozer.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=f...=09FreeAgents-080915

 

The other point that I would like to make is that I completely agree with Mr. Charisma on the point of building the system. One of the great things about the Spurs is that have been doing things the same way for years and it works. They have their core players and they can mix and match other guys in and everyone knows what to expect and what they are doing. I would like to see the Magic build something similar as I think they have the players to do so.

[Live or Die Magic 383]

quote:

Originally posted by Drain-O:

The other point that I would like to make is that I completely agree with Mr. Charisma on the point of building the system. One of the great things about the Spurs is that have been doing things the same way for years and it works. They have their core players and they can mix and match other guys in and everyone knows what to expect and what they are doing. I would like to see the Magic build something similar as I think they have the players to do so.

 

I'd like to build on Drain-O and Mr. Charisma's points....

 

We hear the phrase "Success breeds success" quite often in sports. It is very true in the case of the Spurs. Their ability to win titles every few years actually reinforces the team blueprint they have in place. The long-term players on the roster (Duncan, Bowen, Manu, Parker) have total buy-in to the system and put the team first. This environment, along with the lure of winning rings, has attracted veteran role-players. This allows the Spurs to fill the gaps with very little risk to the bottom-line or the chemistry the team enjoys.

 

Add to that the consistency of having the same coach, GM, and star (all on the same page) during this time, and you see why the Spurs are the best-run team in the NBA.

 

Interestingly enough, it was losing that initially bred the success of the Spurs. Robinson going down with an injury in 1996 is the catalyst for everything that has transpired since.

 

Also of interest, the Magic unexpectedly suffered the worst record in the league in 2003 after having their star player out for the year. Make of it what you will.

[30Assists 342]

What's the deal with the Larry Bird rule and the salary cap? Can't we sign Hedo for more?

[Live or Die Magic 383]

quote:

Originally posted by 30Assists:

What's the deal with the Larry Bird rule and the salary cap? Can't we sign Hedo for more?

 

Hedo will have been with the team for 5 seasons next Summer and yes, the Magic could basically sign him to the max, irregardless of the salary cap. But Hedo isn't a max player (perception), and the question is whether the Magic are willing to go over the cap for any player not named Dwight Howard.

 

I think the interesting thing to watch will be the quotes from Hedo's agent next Summer if Hedo once again outplays Rashard. Essentially, he would be able to claim that he is more valuable to the Magic than Rashard, who is making insane money. But therein lies the real problem for Hedo: right now, his value is through the roof because he is underpaid. Once he attempts to get over 10 million a season, his value - in the financial sense - significantly drops.

 

Also, the retort from Otis will go something like this: "Well, our All-World Star Center, Dwight Howard, is also making significantly less than Rashard, and you don't hear Dwight complaining!"

[nbr 15]

quote:

Originally posted by bhnole:

 

In closing the team will have some decisions to make when the trade deadline gets close.

 

*Is retaining Hedo, Cook and Gortat a priority for this off-season? If so I expect the team to shop Battie for an expiring deal. This should not be difficult since he is a serviceable big man with a contract that expires before the 2010 FA class of Lebron, Wade, and Bosh.

 

*Can we win a championship playing small ball? If not, is paying Hedo a sizable contract to come off the bench worth it or should we trade him for a quality PF and move Shard back to his natural position.

 

*AJ and Mike Wilks are not long term solutions for a back up PG. Do you use Hedo or Battie as trade bait to fix this and give us more salary room to re-sign Cook and Gortat if they prove themselves this year?

 

Personally, I favor moving Battie this year to ensure we can keep our younger bigs and Hedo. I like Battie but his best years are behind him and this team is still likely a year or two away from being Finals material. Hedo is entering his prime and was our fourth quarter go to man last year, that is a role that can not be replaced with an MLE player or draft pick. I don

[SmackDaddy 30]

A couple of what ifs to add.

 

What if we can orchestrate a sign and trade sending Hedo to Utah for Boozer? That is easily a situation where I see RDV giving Otis the go ahead to exceed the LT. For a few years, Miami has been rumored as the destination for Boozer because Utah has a young and hungry Paul Milsap waiting in the wings to get more minutes at 1/3 the salary. However, now that Miami has drafted Beasley, would Boozer fit with the Heat? Utah has always shown a propensity for including foreign players on their roster, and Okur and Hedo are countrymen that have a lone repoir playing together. With reports flying around about AK47 possibly signing with Russia, I would think the Jazz would gleefully realease Kirilenko from his contract, move Boozer's contract and replace them both with Hedo and Milsap in the starting lineup (at an enormous salary savings). I also wonder how close Boozer and D12 grew during the Olympics?

 

The second roster upgrade situation that I would love to see, but doubt will happen, is a trade involving Battie. Problem is Battie won't land the Magic squat. He's old, he's injury prone, and he's overpaid. However, sending Battie to a team that is looking to clear salary cap space for 2010 may be slightly possible. The biggets problem as I see it though, is any deal negotiated for those purposes likely lands us a guy like Zach Randolph - or another undesirable contract or attitude. Then again, who knows. Maybe we can convince one of the teams desperate to be players during the 2010 off-season to hand over a 1st round pick in exchange for Battie's expiring contract. A deal like that would satisfy two needs, young promising players to solidify the bench, while also costing less than Battie.

 

There are also numerous package deals that I can invision benefiting the Magic, but those situations won't present themsleves until midseason when the standings will determine which teams may be willing to rebuild or deconstruct.

 

After this year's offseason where I was pleasantly surprised with Otis' moves, I think we have a tremendous core to build around for the future. As I predicted more than 2 years ago, pIetrus is precisely the type of player that will bring a variety of skills to the SG position. And while I was critical that Otis didn't attempt to land a big man in the draft by acquiring an additional pick, C Lee looks very promising already.

 

But with every passing offseason, the impending offseason seems to be more and more important in the culmination of a championship.

[Live or Die Magic 383]

quote:

Originally posted by SmackDaddy:

What if we can orchestrate a sign and trade sending Hedo to Utah for Boozer?

 

The second roster upgrade situation that I would love to see, but doubt will happen, is a trade involving Battie. Problem is Battie won't land the Magic squat. He's old, he's injury prone, and he's overpaid.

 

Why not package Hedo and Battie together for Boozer before the trade deadline? It works according to Real GM's trade checker. This way, we trade Hedo for value while also freeing up a roster spot and finding a taker for Battie. Assuming the other points you bring up about Utah (saving AK's salary), then perhaps the Jazz would be willing to take on another year of Battie's salary in exchange for scoring Hedo.

 

Of course this scenario would mean that both teams would have to have some assurances that the two main players in the trade would be willing to sign extensions next Summer (an iffy proposition with Boozer's history).

[bhnole 153]

A lot of good points here.

 

Personally I am not opposed to trading Hedo if we get a nice player in return (Boozer would be great).

 

I think Battie would be easy to move only if you want to clear salary space. Generally teams want contracts that expire this year, but this year might be the exemption with quite a few teams looking forward to next years FA sweepstakes.

 

The only problem with taking on Boozer is he is likely to want a bigger deal than Hedo will get. That would make it nearly impossible to stay under the lux tax. I'd love to see BVW say he would pay it, but I heard nothing to indicate this will happen.