Should we match for Harris?

[jmmagicfan 302]

Just my opinion but I'd rather pay Hezonja (my favorite prospect in the draft) 4-5 million than pay Harris 13 million

 

I like Hezonja, but I have a couple of concerns about him.

1) He doesn't seem interested in playing defense, at all.

2) At draft positions 5-8 his starting salary might not be enough to persuade him to come over - he might get an offer to stay in Europe. Max for pick #5 is $3.74M for the first year. Attached below is part of the 2015-16 rookie salary cap taken from Real GM http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale/2016

 

* First round picks can sign for as much as 120% and as little as 80% of the rookie scale.

 

Pick 1st Year Salary 2nd Year Salary 3rd Year Option Salary

 

1 $4,753,000 $4,966,800 $5,180,700

2 $4,252,600 $4,444,000 $4,635,300

3 $3,818,900 $3,990,700 $4,162,600

4 $3,443,100 $3,598,100 $3,753,000

5 $3,117,900 $3,258,200 $3,398,600

6 $2,831,900 $2,959,300 $3,086,800

7 $2,585,200 $2,701,500 $2,817,900

8 $2,368,300 $2,474,900 $2,581,500

 

My point being, even if you want to, you can't pay him $4-5M to start. 1st round draft picks are locked in to the rookie scale, and while you can pay 2nd round picks and undrafted players whatever you want, he won't stay on the board that long.You would have to get him as a top 3 pick to pay that, and I don't think he is a top 3 talent.

[gporter_ 1]

Also, the final updated stats are available from 82 games. Harris is a really weird player.

 

His production vs opponents production differential is the highest on the team. This indicates he generally plays better than his matchup.

 

However, his on/off numbers are negative. This indicates we play better when he's not in the game.

 

That's weird.

 

For comparison, Payton's opponents play significantly better than him at least statistically (which makes sense because his rookie season was pretty unremarkable from a box score perspective). Yet his on/off numbers were extremely positive. The team played significantly better with him on the floor. That's in line with what we see when watching games

 

Harris might just be an empty stat guy right now. That's fine, because a lot of talented players start out as empty stat guys (like Zach Randolph) but he could also go the Nick young route. It's so hard to project what a 22 year old really is. matching Harris could be the smartest or dumbest thing Hennigan does

 

His production vs opp doesn't mean much. Not many SFs average 17 and 6, so most of the time he is going to outproduce other SFs. That isn't going to paint him as a good or bad player.

 

His horrible defense outweighs his offensive impact, which isn't much. That's why he is a net negative.

 

Not weird.

 

Payton isn't a volume stat stuffer, except for his assists numbers. So his "production vs opp" looks bad. Doesn't matter much though.

 

Payton positively affects the defense and offense when he is on the floor. Runs the offense(low TOs) without chucking his brains out and provides great defense on the other end. His on/off reflects this.

 

He(Tobias) could be a good player if he played better defense. He can play the 3-4 on offense, space the floor, and provides 17ppg on 55% TS. His contract situation makes it hard to keep him though.

[LaVar 108]

I like Hezonja, but I have a couple of concerns about him.

1) He doesn't seem interested in playing defense, at all.

2) At draft positions 5-8 his starting salary might not be enough to persuade him to come over - he might get an offer to stay in Europe. Max for pick #5 is $3.74M for the first year. Attached below is part of the 2015-16 rookie salary cap taken from Real GM http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale/2016

 

* First round picks can sign for as much as 120% and as little as 80% of the rookie scale.

 

Pick 1st Year Salary 2nd Year Salary 3rd Year Option Salary

 

1 $4,753,000 $4,966,800 $5,180,700

2 $4,252,600 $4,444,000 $4,635,300

3 $3,818,900 $3,990,700 $4,162,600

4 $3,443,100 $3,598,100 $3,753,000

5 $3,117,900 $3,258,200 $3,398,600

6 $2,831,900 $2,959,300 $3,086,800

7 $2,585,200 $2,701,500 $2,817,900

8 $2,368,300 $2,474,900 $2,581,500

 

My point being, even if you want to, you can't pay him $4-5M to start. 1st round draft picks are locked in to the rookie scale, and while you can pay 2nd round picks and undrafted players whatever you want, he won't stay on the board that long.You would have to get him as a top 3 pick to pay that, and I don't think he is a top 3 talent.

 

 

it is a dream of his to play on the highest stag. I believe, he also wants more playing time... It was stated that he needed to be in the 10 top to come - money wise. I believe. Plus, his contract is NBA friendly for a reason. He wants to come over.

[Murphy13 185]

If Tobias wanted a 2 year max deal with a player option I'd give it him no questions asked. Even if he ends up being not worth that second year he still expires before we need to resign Dipo, Payton, AG etc so he doesn't hurt our long term flexibility at all. Plus he'd probably be a pretty great trade chip that last year.

 

EDIT: Although I have just realized that this deal becomes a problem if he makes a leap next year, becomes a more valuable player and we have to pay him more under the new cap.

 

He is not even close to being worth that much, why would we waste that money and space?!?

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

He is not even close to being worth that much, why would we waste that money and space?!?

 

Because in a short term deal money doesn't really matter.

[TreyMachine 398]

Because in a short term deal money doesn't really matter.

 

No way he asks for a 2 year deal. With how injuries work in the NBA, he'll be looking for (and will be paid) well for these next two years and moderately (on the scale) over another 3. No way he doesn't sign the most lucrative deal over the most number of years.

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

No way he asks for a 2 year deal. With how injuries work in the NBA, he'll be looking for (and will be paid) well for these next two years and moderately (on the scale) over another 3. No way he doesn't sign the most lucrative deal over the most number of years.

 

I agree

[A Better DJ & Photographer 461]

If we can draft or sign someone that shoots like him but plays much better D I'd let him walk.

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

If we can draft or sign someone that shoots like him but plays much better D I'd let him walk.

 

Lol. Doesn't that apply to every player?

[CTMagicUK 1,488]

I believe we're keeping Harris regardless. I was reading an article about him and it mentioned in passing that we'd given him a workout regime for over the summer which at least implies we intend to bring him back.

[HeHateMe 697]

Yea were going to overpay and keep Harris.

[The Neighborhood Bully 266]

Set to turn 23 years old in the weeks following the start of the free agency period, Tobias Harris may be celebrating that he cashed in during restricted free agency. Harris hits the market after a career year for a floundering young Magic team. He played the majority of his minutes at SF for Orlando, and recorded a career-high 3P% en route to another career-high, 17.1 points per game. With enough size and athleticism to play both forward spots, Harris is a logical fit at either of the Pistons' biggest needs. He's the right age to grow with Reggie Jackson, Andre Drummond and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and he's coming off of a year that makes it look like he's going to be a force to be reckoned with for years to come. While everything looks good on the surface, I think that Harris is one of the biggest risks on this year's market. He may very well pay off for whoever signs him, but the Pistons should proceed with caution if they're interested in the versatile, young forward.

 

Harris' ability to take advantage of post-up situations is the main advantage to playing him at SF. While you may see a decreased efficiency in isolation, pick-and-roll and spot-up situations, Harris is an excellent back-to-the-basket option at the SF spot. To put it simply, there aren't many SFs in the league not named LeBron James who can match Harris' physical nature and athleticism. The NBA's play-type statistics aren't available for seasons before the most recent one, but I have a feeling that those numbers are somewhat inverse in years when Harris played more PF than SF. For what it's worth, Harris is an excellent scorer off of cuts, notching 1.49 PPP on 110 cut possessions during the 2014-15 campaign.

 

The most discouraging number here is that Harris was mediocre at defending post-up possessions despite being bigger and stronger than the majority of his opponents. That number suggests that you may pay the price if you utilize a small-ball lineup with Harris at PF. The other numbers suggest that Orlando definitely paid the price for running Harris out at SF. There isn't a single area above where Harris was anywhere above average. He should get credit for not being atrocious in any particular area, but I would like to see more out of a guy who is probably positioning himself for a max, or near a max contract.

Chris Sheridan of the aptly-named Sheridan Hoops has gone on the record stating that Harris is going to get max money this summer. If that deal is signed with the Magic, it would look roughly like five years and $80 million. If he signs an offer sheet anywhere else, the deal would fall at four years for around $64 million. The Magic have openly stated that they'll match any offer for Harris after his stellar year; if you haven't followed the NBA long enough to know that you can't trust front office statements, now you do. As a restricted free agent, Harris is open to sign any offer sheet he wants. At that point, it turns into a matter of negotiation between the challenging team, the Magic and Harris. Orlando could very well be grandstanding to make sure they can get something in exchange for Harris in the aforementioned scenario. Regardless, it doesn't hurt to throw an offer at Harris early and see if something sticks.

 

http://sixchampdrive...ias-harris.html