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CTMagicUK

2021 NBA Draft Thread

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5 hours ago, Mike1989 said:

Based off their listed heights, which we should alway take with a pinch of salt, there is 2 inches in it. Wagner might be taller, but he’s not a better shooter and he’s not a standout athlete. Kispert should transition well into a Joe Harris like role. That’s ideal for this team at the 2/3 spot, lights out shooter with a good IQ for team defence.

Length and age can be important, but we need contributors. We need to use that second pick smartly and identify someone that can come in and make a difference. For me, I’d rather draft the elite shooter and capable defensive talent than another project. 3 years down the line we’ll be wanting to be a play off team again and a talent like Kispert (a Harris/Bogdanovic like player) can be an ideal starter IF we have stars in other positions. 

Anyway, it’s good for us to have debate and options available for both our picks. 

Kispert isn't a standout athlete either. In fact Wagner is a much better athlete than Kispert. 

Why do we need someone who can come in and make a difference immediately versus someone who'll be the better player 2 years down the line? 

Wagner (who's just an example of one of several guys id pick over Kispert and there are at least 10) isn't even really a project. He's a high end defensive player, he's a good passer and solid ball handler and he can shoot (just not at the percentages of Kispert, but as mentioned before he didn't play with 2 of the best players in college basketball getting him open looks).

I think it's a stretch to suggest Kispert is definitely a Joe Harris/Bogdanovic type. He could easily be Doug McDermott. Or Tony Snell. 

If we want an upperclassman who can shoot id much rather draft Kessler Edwards at 34 than Kispert in the lottery. 

This exact argument is a how a team ends up picking Doug McDermott when they could have picked Zach Lavine, TJ Warren or Jusuf Nurkic.  

And there are always ways to acquire shooters that isn't use a lottery pick on them. Joe Harris was picked up off the waiver wire. Duncan Robinson went undrafted. The Jazz got Bogdanovic as a free agent. Desmond Bane was the best shooter in the 2020 draft and he was pick 30 which the Grizzlies didn't give up much to get. Etc.

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Been watching more Alperen Sengun tape and I think he's a top 10 talent. Dude is 6'10 (allegedly), won't even be 19 when he's drafted and is putting up Shaq like efficiency in Europe. I think it's hard to get a read on how much potential he has as a passer or shooter because he's so good in the post that any jump shot he takes is a bad shot efficiency wise but he hit a step back 3 in some tape I just watched, his FT% is solid and he's flashed enough as a passer to trust he'll be a positive there. 

It's so hard to look at someone who isn't super athletic and is only 6'10 at C and think he'll succeed in the NBA but his footwork is terrific, he has great hands, his body control is tremendous. He's super efficient as a roll man or in the post, he draws fouls at an insane rate and makes them at 75+%. And while he's not ever going to be Rudy Gobert he averages 1.7 blocks and 1.3 steals in 29mpg.  

I'd be incredibly surprised if we draft him given we have 2 young bigs and he's not a long athletic guy but I do believe whoever gets him is getting a potential all star.

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Giddey shot 4-8 from 3 in a game recently and in his last 11 games is a 40% 3 point shooter. I'm going to bang the Giddey drum until we draft some long athletic forward who can't shoot with the Bulls pick (Jalen Johnson).

No idea why but I'm consistently drawn to unusual international prospects. Usually because they're flashing elite qualities against grown men and often at younger ages than most college freshman (Giddey is the youngest guy in the class I think, haven't found anyone younger yet anyway)

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On 4/3/2021 at 10:27 AM, CTMagicUK said:

 

I thought Giddey with the Bulls pick might be a reach but honestly one of Giddey or Franz Wagner to go with Jalen Green and I'll be more excited than I can describe. 

 

Dude looks like Larry Bird. Lol

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Hey, I just saw a recent Instagram post by ESPN that had a mock draft.

it showed us having the #4 and #8 pick. Is that right? Do we have 2 top 10 picks this year? One of them of traded to another team? 

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15 minutes ago, TrueBlueDrew said:

Hey, I just saw a recent Instagram post by ESPN that had a mock draft.

it showed us having the #4 and #8 pick. Is that right? Do we have 2 top 10 picks this year? One of them of traded to another team? 

Yes we have the Bulls pick from the Vuc trade. But we're unlikely to have picks #4 and #8.

Currently we have 4th best lottery odds (i.e. a pick that can end up anywhere from 1-8 with varying odds) and the Bulls pick which at the time of that mock you saw was 8th best lottery odds (i.e. a pick with small odds of being 1-4 which then wouldn't convey to us or otherwise a pick in the 8-11 range) the Bulls odds at present are 11th best (i.e. there's a 90% chance it winds up being either pick 11 or 12 and about a 10% chance it jumps into the top 4 and doesn't convey to us).

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1 hour ago, CTMagicUK said:

Yes we have the Bulls pick from the Vuc trade. But we're unlikely to have picks #4 and #8.

Currently we have 4th best lottery odds (i.e. a pick that can end up anywhere from 1-8 with varying odds) and the Bulls pick which at the time of that mock you saw was 8th best lottery odds (i.e. a pick with small odds of being 1-4 which then wouldn't convey to us or otherwise a pick in the 8-11 range) the Bulls odds at present are 11th best (i.e. there's a 90% chance it winds up being either pick 11 or 12 and about a 10% chance it jumps into the top 4 and doesn't convey to us).

We are due to defy the odds and get #1 and #5 :D

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question i dont know about statistics and odds but i thought. Why don't they reverse the percentages and odds and ping pong balls, and draw 14th first?

Ex remember 1993 draft where we only did 66 balls and we only had one. What if they reversed it so we would have had 11 ping pong balls and they would have drawn for 14 first? If you include protections like the 3 worst teams cant pick outside of top 5 or 6, wouldn't it work out better? Would you like to watch a countdown draw instead of top down draw?

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I know currently they just draw the first 3 then win loss record dictates, but wouldn't doing it my way not incentivize tanking, but it also would allow that even bottom lottery teams might be able to move up more then just where they would otherwise fall with Win loss record. In fact you could push this out to all teams so even the best 5 teams could also jump around in the bottom 10 (22-32) somewhat. In my example the 2020 draft could have looked like this

Pick 14 - Phoenix Suns (Actual Pick 10)
Pick 13 - Sacramento Kings (Actual Pick 12)
Pick 12 - San Antonio Spurs (Actual Pick 11)
Pick 11 - New Orleans Pelicans (Actual Pick 13)
Pick 10 - Memphis Grizzlies (Actual Pick 14)
Pick 9 - New York Knicks (Actual Pick 8)
Pick 8 - Detroit Pistons (Actual Pick 7)
Pick 7 - Atlanta Hawks (Actual Pick 6)
Pick 6 - Washington Wizards (Actual Pick 9)
Pick 5 - Cleveland Cavaliers (Actual Pick 5)
Pick 4 - Golden State Warriors (Actual Pick 2)
Pick 3 - Charlotte Hornets (Actual Pick 3)
Pick 2 - Chicago Bulls (Actual Pick 4)
Pick 1 - Minnesota Timberwolves (Actual Pick 1)

In my idea as you get close to the bottom with all the lower picks chosen the "barely missed the playoff" team is not as penalized by getting stuck at 14 if they don't get a top 3. Also there is no benefit to a tank race to the bottom either. If ten squads blow up the roster and tank full on 7 of those teams could be picking in the back half of the lottery thus making the tank less worthwhile, since a #10-14 pick for a team with a 20-47 or 19-45 record is not going to help nearly as much. Currently as constructed tankers think if i dont get a top three im good with 4-7 pick. But if the game is flipped they could easily be picking in the 10-14. Thus they are not rewarded nearly as much for tanking. In fact the incentive for them to be better or field the most competitive team is that even if they end up 14th in the standings and don't receive a top 4 pick they still have a chance to receive a 7-14 pick thus not forever making them decide either i'm playoff bound or tank mode.  

There is no worse place to be then middle to back half of teams with no hope of getting out unless they tank and hope a top 4 pick changes their team.

 In fact giving those teams a shot at mid lottery pick vs last in the lottery gives them more flexibility. Of course no team "wants" to pick 14th but someone got to have it. Also it might incentivize more trading. A "barely missed playoff" team has almost no value to a 14th pick. In my scenarios a 14th team actually gets a 7-9 pick. Our own Orlando team could have packaged that pick and a player for the "missing piece". but no "barely made the playoff" team is going to trade for a 14th pick, but a 7-9 pick they might. In 2020 draft for Example there is basically no so far good player taken after cole at 15 (jury is still out on hampton at 24). Therefore no team would trade us something for a player and 14 (i know we picked 15 and were not in the lottery, that 1 game aaargg) however in my new scenario we would have had  more possibility in offering trade under my scenario.

Anyways food for thought its not gonna change anything lol.

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2 hours ago, ROCK LEGENDS PHOTOGRAPHERS said:

We are due to defy the odds and get #1 and #5 :D

The only way we can get #5 is if the Bulls finish in the bottom 5 lottery odds which is very unlikely. They'd likely have to lose most of their remaining games.

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