Should we extend Jameer? (Brian Schmidtz Blog)

[bhnole 153]

This is the latest from Brian Schmidtz:

 

quote:

Will Magic Let Jameer Nelson Test Free Agency?

 

The Magic, through GM Otis Smith, told me several weeks ago that point guard Jameer Nelson is not guaranteed a contract extension this summer like his buddy, Dwight Howard.

 

Smith said he "wanted to see more out of Jameer," a pointed message reflecting his uneven season.

 

Nelson showed Smith a lot in hitting the tying and game-winning 3-point shots in beating the Knicks Monday night, delivering one of the Magic's biggest victories this season.

 

If the Magic do not extend Nelson this summer, he will become a restricted free agent after next season.

 

That means the Magic can match any other suitor's offer. They also gamble that it won't be sky-high.

 

They have already used the same strategy with 7-foot forward Darko Milicic this summer.

 

While Milicic is a young, skilled big, he hasn't put up the kind of nights that Nelson has since he arrived with Howard in the 2004 NBA draft. Not even close. What he has on Nelson is 14 inches of height.

 

The Magic aren't going to Milicic in the clutch, asking him to win a game. Nelson is their go-to guy most of the time, largely because he doesn't fear the responsibility.

 

So, Nelson has established his value as a go-to scorer, if not a run-the-offense point guard. He is --- and likely never will be --- a pure point. He still commits way too many turnovers, and doesn't always pay attention defensively, seemingly saving himself for the offensive end.

 

The Magic likely see Nelson as a back-up -- and maybe other teams will, too. Nelson's size is a factor, whether he likes to hear that or not. But there are teams who desperately need a point and in the right system, Nelson might be worth a considerably hefty contract.

 

The Magic are leaning more toward signing him for something close to what Seattle point guard Luke Ridnour received (three years, $19.5 million). If Nelson wants Kirk Hinrich money (5 years, $47.5 million), he and the Magic are miles apart this summer.

 

But if they expose him to restricteid free agency, all it takes is one team to maybe split the difference, forcing the Magic to make a call --- and that's after Nelson goes on a salary-drive next season.

 

What the Magic have to decide this summer is simple: Is Jameer their point guard of the future or not? If Smith's stated goal is winning a title, is Nelson a guy to lead them there? If not, they need to go find another point, perhaps a more traditional point.

 

If they do, then at least they answer that question. The next one could be whether they decide to match an offer for Nelson --- who could be coming off the bench in a Vinnie Johnson-type role --- or let him go.

 

 

 

I am really torn on this issue, one minute Jameer spends a game throwing more passes to our opponents then our guys. But name one other player on this team that has hit as many big shots as him this season. A guy who wants to take and can hit that shot is a rare commodity. Point Guard is also the hardest position in the league to learn, so I think he still can grow a lot in that regard.

 

At this point I would offer him a Ridnour type deal, anything more and we should take the Darko approach and let him establish his value on the open market next summer as a restricted free agent.

[bhnole 153]

This is the latest from Brian Schmidtz:

 

quote:

Will Magic Let Jameer Nelson Test Free Agency?

 

The Magic, through GM Otis Smith, told me several weeks ago that point guard Jameer Nelson is not guaranteed a contract extension this summer like his buddy, Dwight Howard.

 

Smith said he "wanted to see more out of Jameer," a pointed message reflecting his uneven season.

 

Nelson showed Smith a lot in hitting the tying and game-winning 3-point shots in beating the Knicks Monday night, delivering one of the Magic's biggest victories this season.

 

If the Magic do not extend Nelson this summer, he will become a restricted free agent after next season.

 

That means the Magic can match any other suitor's offer. They also gamble that it won't be sky-high.

 

They have already used the same strategy with 7-foot forward Darko Milicic this summer.

 

While Milicic is a young, skilled big, he hasn't put up the kind of nights that Nelson has since he arrived with Howard in the 2004 NBA draft. Not even close. What he has on Nelson is 14 inches of height.

 

The Magic aren't going to Milicic in the clutch, asking him to win a game. Nelson is their go-to guy most of the time, largely because he doesn't fear the responsibility.

 

So, Nelson has established his value as a go-to scorer, if not a run-the-offense point guard. He is --- and likely never will be --- a pure point. He still commits way too many turnovers, and doesn't always pay attention defensively, seemingly saving himself for the offensive end.

 

The Magic likely see Nelson as a back-up -- and maybe other teams will, too. Nelson's size is a factor, whether he likes to hear that or not. But there are teams who desperately need a point and in the right system, Nelson might be worth a considerably hefty contract.

 

The Magic are leaning more toward signing him for something close to what Seattle point guard Luke Ridnour received (three years, $19.5 million). If Nelson wants Kirk Hinrich money (5 years, $47.5 million), he and the Magic are miles apart this summer.

 

But if they expose him to restricteid free agency, all it takes is one team to maybe split the difference, forcing the Magic to make a call --- and that's after Nelson goes on a salary-drive next season.

 

What the Magic have to decide this summer is simple: Is Jameer their point guard of the future or not? If Smith's stated goal is winning a title, is Nelson a guy to lead them there? If not, they need to go find another point, perhaps a more traditional point.

 

If they do, then at least they answer that question. The next one could be whether they decide to match an offer for Nelson --- who could be coming off the bench in a Vinnie Johnson-type role --- or let him go.

 

 

 

I am really torn on this issue, one minute Jameer spends a game throwing more passes to our opponents then our guys. But name one other player on this team that has hit as many big shots as him this season. A guy who wants to take and can hit that shot is a rare commodity. Point Guard is also the hardest position in the league to learn, so I think he still can grow a lot in that regard.

 

At this point I would offer him a Ridnour type deal, anything more and we should take the Darko approach and let him establish his value on the open market next summer as a restricted free agent.

[SmackDaddy 30]

I don't like the idea of allowing PGs to establish their market value. See: Mike James

 

They have the ball in their hands the majority of the game and could very easily destroy team chemistry while playing for a larger contract.

 

I guess all I'm saying is that PGs playing for a payday can tend to be selfish. Do we really want Jameer playing even more selfish than he already is?

[Ned Ryerson 94]

Schmitz mentioned backup pg several times. Nelson won't buy that. If that were the case though, we would have to pick up another pg (sorry guys, Diener won't be with us after this year). What is the chance, considering our cap situation, that we could pick up a traditional pg?

 

...But I guess that question can't really be answered considering we have no idea what our cap room will be like after next season.

[Soul Bro 1,421]

Smack, I agree with you. Honestly, if we get a traditional SG that can light it up, I would just assume let Jameer walk instead of giving him a bloated deal. I think Ridnour is overpaid and also wonder if Jameer is even worth 6.5 mil/yr (like Ridnour receives). That is a lot of jack for a pg that plays like Jameer (shoots first, commits high tos, struggles on defense, etc.). Keep in mind, he really isn't that young, either (25). Give me Duhon (or his equivalent) at 3 mil/yr, with his leadership, good a/to ratio, and defense, next to a guy like Vince instead of Jameer at 6.5 mil/yr. Get my drift?

[bhnole 153]

quote:

Originally posted by SmackDaddy:

I don't like the idea of allowing PGs to establish their market value. See: Mike James

 

They have the ball in their hands the majority of the game and could very easily destroy team chemistry while playing for a larger contract.

 

I guess all I'm saying is that PGs playing for a payday can tend to be selfish. Do we really want Jameer playing even more selfish than he already is?

 

I see your point Smack, but how high are you willing to go on an extension?

 

I got a feeling that Jameer is going to place a much higher value on his services than Otis is willing to pay.

[ball junkie 277]

Tough call. Here's my take.

 

I don't like him as a point guard. Especially when we have so many other scoring options on our team and possibly adding Vince next year.

 

I did a thread not to long ago titled, "you wanna know why Jameer sat in the green room on draft night"?

 

I think we all know why he slipped. He's a tweener. To little to play shooting guard and doesn't pass enough or good enough at it to be a point guard.

 

Plus, for all you Redick fans I think everyone would agree that a backcourt of Redick and Nelson would never work for various reasons.

 

I said all that to say this, "doggone that boy can shoot in the clutch"! We Magic fans have seen him do it plenty of times.

 

The other night against the Knicks he hit not 1 three-point shot but "TWO" in the last minute and a half to win the game. How many times have you seen that in the NBA?

 

How do you not keep a guy like that on your team?

 

Glad I'm not Otis.(lol)

[Soul Bro 1,421]

Junkie, you're killin' us. What would you do? Get off that fence!

[Emory889 353]

I really don't know what I would do if I was Otis. I guess I would try to sign him to a reasonable contract if possible. If he wants Hinrich money then let him test the free agent waters next offseason. If he starts playing selfishly then its the coach's responsibility to nip it in the bud. I doubt Hill will do that but Otis really can't help that. Until Jameer shows that he is worth Hinrich money Otis shouldn't be jumping through hoops to pay him.

[Drain-O 369]

I would offer him a Ridnour type contract and if he did not want it let him play out next season.

 

1. If any team has watched this year Jameer Nelson is not an elite point guard. In my estimation the teams that need new starting point guards are Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, LAL, Miami, Minnesota, Seattle, Memphis, and Milwaukee. I leave out the New York Knicks and Sacramento because it is very unlikely that Marbury or Bibby are opting out thus keeping them with their teams for 2 years after this one.

 

2. Now take a look at the 2008 NBA draft prospects. It is very possible that it could be one of the best point guard drafts of all time. It could include Derrick Rose, OJ Mayo, Eric Gordon, Darren Collison, Javarious Crittendon, Ramon Sessions, Ty Lawson, Jamont Gordon, Jerryd Bayless, Michael Conley Jr., Taureen Greene, and Ronald Steele. That does not even include 2 or 3 international point guards who could go in the first round. Crittendon and Conley Jr. are the only ones who might go in the 07 draft in my estimation. One of the teams above could very well snatch one of them up.

 

3. My point is why would one of the teams above overpay Jameer when they could have someone who has a higher upside and is 4 or 5 years younger. I think he is agent would be doing him a disservice if he allows him to go into next year without an extension. It will be a Bonzi Wells or DeShawn Stevenson situation in my honest opinion.

[SmackDaddy 30]

Jameer IMO, has proven this year that he would be a GREAT backup PG. However, as a starter I think he should be averaging 4 assists per game on alley-oops to Dwight alone.

 

There are the two schools of thought about Jameer.

 

1) He is a selfish scorer that fails to get his teammates involved in the offense.

 

2) He is forced to be a scorer with a SG that plays out of position and misses every 5th game along with a SF that is shooting 41% from the field this season.

 

Which is it? Honestly, I'm not sure.

 

My biggest criticism of Jameer has nothing to do with his shot attempts or assist to turnover ratio. I would just like to see him play 80 feet of defense on every possession. I hate the fact that he takes possessions off and can't ever seem to guard the perimeter or fight through screens properly.

 

If he played defense, I wouldn't care how many shots he threw up every night. But, not playing defense combined with his lack of true PG skills puts him in a category with Francis, Monta Ellis, Derek Fisher, Smuch Parker, etc.

[~O~ 565]

Jameer was already part of this young future of a team when that hot streak happened at the end of last season. Like I said, I never doubted Jameer at all and knew what Jameer was capable of IF Jameer just made his shots. The guys getting his extension no matter what.