2018 NBA Draft Thread

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

Givony on the ESPN lottery machine has us taking Ayton and Jackson over doncic and has our board as Bamba, young, Carter at pick 5+. Don't know if Bagley is ahead of Bamba as there's not a scenario to let that play out. 

[Nyce_1 311]

12 minutes ago, ?4thewin said:

Givony on the ESPN lottery machine has us taking Ayton and Jackson over doncic and has our board as Bamba, young, Carter at pick 5+. Don't know if Bagley is ahead of Bamba as there's not a scenario to let that play out. 

I just saw this also. I ran it a few times we took Jackson/Bamba over Doncic and Young. Definitely seems like we're valuing bigs with our pick.

Ayton

Jackson

Bamba

Bagley

[A Better DJ & Photographer 457]

8 minutes ago, ?4thewin said:

Givony on the ESPN lottery machine has us taking Ayton and Jackson over doncic and has our board as Bamba, young, Carter at pick 5+. Don't know if Bagley is ahead of Bamba as there's not a scenario to let that play out. 

Personally I would take JJJ  over Ayton because of the difference on D but I would take Doncic over either of them. Doncic really intrigues me if you can make it as an NBA PG at his height.

Doncic, JJJ, Ayton, Young, Bamba is my top 5. If we can't get one of those I would consider trading with the Clips for 12 & 13 and taking SGA/Sexton & Robinson/Williams in the 1st, then grab 2 shooters with our 2nds. If we were lucky enough to get a pick around 20 for Vuc I'd grab Shake Milton and have 2 6'6 PGs that can also both play SG and see what develops. 

 

[Originalticketholder 133]

1 hour ago, Nyce_1 said:

I just saw this also. I ran it a few times we took Jackson/Bamba over Doncic and Young. Definitely seems like we're valuing bigs with our pick.

Ayton

Jackson

Bamba

Bagley

Just like last year was the year of the PG this year is the year of the big players.  Incredible amount of quality big men.  Next year not as much a big man year.  I would also conisder Doncic and Porter "big" because they are "big" at the positions they play.  They also have length, athleticism and scoring,  all three of Weltmann's criteria.  Hoping to stay at 5 or go up next Tuesday.  Great news is another good player is on the way!!!! 

[A Better DJ & Photographer 457]

If somehow we luck into the 1st pick on Tuesday the board is going to be a blast with the Doncic vs Ayton posts :D

[TreyMachine 395]

22 minutes ago, ROCK LEGENDS PHOTOGRAPHERS said:

If somehow we luck into the 1st pick on Tuesday the board is going to be a blast with the Doncic vs Ayton posts :D

Remember those days where we had the D12 vs. Okafor debates and some of y'all were really pulling for Okafor at #1? 

lololololololol 

[Magicfan1987 266]

12 minutes ago, TreyMachine said:

Remember those days where we had the D12 vs. Okafor debates and some of y'all were really pulling for Okafor at #1? 

lololololololol 

I remember I did, then we drafted the horror show that was brace face vs crater face. 

Remember when we read that Magic Johnson was his favorite player and we envisioned him playing small forward. Reading he grew up dribbling around cones on his home road. 

I remember playing him at SF on video games before his rookie year started. I loved Dwight :')

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

35 minutes ago, TreyMachine said:

Remember those days where we had the D12 vs. Okafor debates and some of y'all were really pulling for Okafor at #1? 

lololololololol 

This message board didn't exist until 06

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

59 minutes ago, ROCK LEGENDS PHOTOGRAPHERS said:

If somehow we luck into the 1st pick on Tuesday the board is going to be a blast with the Doncic vs Ayton posts :D

Or Jackson

Or Bamba if he continues his rate of improvement and dominates workouts. 

[Mike1989 68]

3 hours ago, ROCK LEGENDS PHOTOGRAPHERS said:

Personally I would take JJJ  over Ayton because of the difference on D but I would take Doncic over either of them. Doncic really intrigues me if you can make it as an NBA PG at his height.

Doncic, JJJ, Ayton, Young, Bamba is my top 5. If we can't get one of those I would consider trading with the Clips for 12 & 13 and taking SGA/Sexton & Robinson/Williams in the 1st, then grab 2 shooters with our 2nds. If we were lucky enough to get a pick around 20 for Vuc I'd grab Shake Milton and have 2 6'6 PGs that can also both play SG and see what develops. 

 

Part of the decision on JJJ and Ayton would depend on what our aim for next season is. If we want to compete and start to win games, then I think Ayton is the better pick because he should be able to impact the game more as a rookie than JJJ. However, if we are going to be patient with our team's development and perhaps tank for another top pick, then I think JJJ might be the better pick because of that defensive potential and if he develops offensively he can be special in his own right. Either way I think both players can be really good at the next level, however I would draft Ayton over JJJ because of his polish and my concerns over JJJ being another raw player like Isaac. 

With that said, I do agree with you about Doncic. If we land the top pick it might make sense to draft him over anyone else because he does have tremendous upside and looks fairly polished and ready to make an impact from the get go. 

As for trading back that might be avenue to consider. If the Clippers stay at 12 and 13, NBAdraft.net has them taking Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Kevin Knox, though Lonnie Walker (SG, Miami), Mitchell Robinson (C), Robert Williams (PF/C Texas A&M), Zhaire Smith (SG) and co are all available at that point in the draft. I think if we could come away from the first round with SGA and Walker I'd be pretty happy with that outcome. Though if Collin Sexton is available then I would take him and Walker. I really like the potential and upside of some of the just outside the top ten picks. 

1 hour ago, ROCK LEGENDS PHOTOGRAPHERS said:

If somehow we luck into the 1st pick on Tuesday the board is going to be a blast with the Doncic vs Ayton posts :D

It certainly will be a fun place if we do land the top pick and it would be a pleasant change to be able to have our pick of the litter rather than seeing the guy we really want go the pick before and having to select from what's left. 

[A Better DJ & Photographer 457]

26 minutes ago, Mike1989 said:

It certainly will be a fun place if we do land the top pick and it would be a pleasant change to be able to have our pick of the litter rather than seeing the guy we really want go the pick before and having to select from what's left. 

That is where those meaningless wins toward the end of the season come into play! We could have easily locked up 2nd worst,  picked no worse than 5th and had much better odds of a top 3 pick.

[The Neighborhood Bully 266]

Quote

Mikal’s NCAA 3P% (40%) and FT (84.5%) inspire promise for his shooting, while his steals, blocks, team success, and 7’2″ wingspan inspire promise for his defense.

But he was never reputed to be a great shooter, doesn’t have great form, and he lacks great strength, burst, and quickness on defense so it is easy to see him falling short of expectations in both areas.  If so, he will provide an awfully disappointing return on a top 10 pick, as he is not much of a creator, rebounder, or passer. And even if he can shoots and defends well, his upside is capped by limits in other areas.

Mikal clearly has a better shooting projection than Kenrich, but Kenrich’s superiority at everything else makes them similarly good prospects.

Is Mikal Ottomatically going to be a good pro?

Everybody loves to compare Mikal Bridges to Otto Porter, Rob Covington, and Danny Green with the hypothesis he is a solid bet to be on a similar level of goodness. The logic is that he mimicked their NBA role to be one of the most effective players in the NCAA, thus he should seamlessly translate to the same role as a pro.

This logic is dubious, as excellent NCAA play should be a pre-requisite for a 21 year old to be considered in round 1 at all. To deserve top 10 consideration, elite NCAA play at that age isn’t enough.

For comparison, he was the same age as a freshman as Otto was as a sophomore. As a quick and simple comparison, let’s see how the players fared in terms of points, rebounds, and assists per 40 minutes at the same age:

	Points	Rebs	Assists
Otto	18.3	8.5	3.1
Mikal	12.5	6.3	1.7

Otto clearly waffle crushes Mikal, which is why stat models and scouts alike rated him as an elite prospect. It’s simply not realistic to comp Mikal to a player who was THAT far ahead of him at the same age. Even if they seem similar stylistically, Otto is flat out better at basketball.

Now let’s shift focus to more realistic comps such as Danny Green and Robert Covington, comparing career per 40 min samples for the trio:

	Points	Rebs	Assists	Blocks
Green	18.9	8.2	3.5	2.1
RobCov	19.8	9.9	1.6	1.7
Mikal	16.5	6.5	2.3	1.3

This is closer, but it is still clear that Mikal is behind.

Both Green + RobCov have superior rebounds and blocks to suggest nuanced physical advantages over Mikal. They also scored more, and superior creation may have subtle impact on their NBA success even in low usage roles. RobCov offers Mikal hope as a rare example of a good NBA defensive player with a low assist rate, but overall it’s clear that his natural talent lags behind this duo as well.

Essentially Mikal’s NCAA success came from limiting his mistakes and scoring efficiently playing in an elite offensive system for an elite coach. It is plausible that this translates to a useful NBA player, but it also may not. His weaknesses will be more frequently exposed, and his easy opportunities will dry up, and even if he does succeed it is unlikely to be to the same magnitude as the aforementioned trio.

While Mikal has *some* chance of achieving an Otto/RobCov/Green level of goodness, everybody in the lottery has some chance of reaching a greater upside.

Ultimately Bridges’s hype is based on the notion that he will mimic RobCov and Otto’s production as a pro, as their success in spite of low usage makes their success seem attainable. In reality it is not, as they are special in ways that Mikal and most other 3 +D prospects are not. He’s a solid 3 + D prospect in the back end of round 1, but he isn’t special enough to justify the top 10 hype.

 

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