A Special 10k Post, Tuesday Edition of Case Of The Mondays: Who is DoM hating now?

[Secretly Space Jesus 670]

Any long time poster on this board will know a few simple but significant truths:

 

1. When it comes to basketball knowledge, I'm near the top of this board.
2. I got tired of pretending I wasn't around early 2009.
3. When it comes to finding an example of a player who scored a lot, but did it so inefficiently that they didn't help their team win, my go-to example is the 00-01 season, when Jerry Stackhouse scored a ton of points on ghastly percentages and his team badly missed the playoffs.

Just look at this *******.

 

Stackhouse made an all-star game that year, and that makes a lot of sense: PER didn't exist yet in 2001, and people still today don't really appreciate how much PER overvalues volume shooters, and NBA fans are, on the whole, stupid creatures who see a name near the top of the NBA's scoring list and immediately shout BEST PLAYER EVER like some kind of Pavlovian response.

 

But lets actually look at what Jerry Stackhouse did that year:

 

29.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.7 blocks and 4.1 turnovers per game.

Strip those numbers of all context, and those are awesome numbers. Yeah, it's a lot of turnovers, but who cares right? He's giving you almost 30 points and over 5 assists! You can stand a few extra turnovers for that!

 

Ok. Here's some more of what Stackhouse did that year:

24.1 FGAs per game, .402/.351/.822 for an eFG% of .445 and a TS% of .521. And I'm going to go ahead and repeat that .351 number, because he was shooting almost 6 threes a game.

 

 

That is terrible. Adjusting his scoring to account for the whole "taking a shot more than once every 2 minutes of game play" thing, and you're left with a guy scoring just 1.24 points per shot attempt. That's not god-awful, but it's certainly below average.

 

For comparisons sake, here are the NBA's current top 10 scorers' points per shot attempt:

1. Kobe Bryant - 1.21

2. Kevin Durant - 1.42

3. Lebron James - 1.51

4. Kevin Love - 1.37

5. Russel Westbrook - 1.25

6. Derrick Rose - 1.26

7. Deron Williams - 1.25

8. Monta Ellis - 1.15

9. LaMarcus Aldrdige - 1.26

10. Blake Griffin - 1.32

 

That mostly fits with what we know about those players this season. Kobe shoots too much, Westbrook doesn't get to the line enough and shoots too many 3s, Rose shoots way too many 3s, Aldridge shoots too many long 2s, Deron Williams has been horrible for most of the year but better lately, every scorer's efficiency is down this year due to the lockout, and Lebron is having one of the most efficient years imaginable.

 

And then there's Monta Ellis.

 

Ellis, shown here counting the number of shots he's missed this quarter.

 

Saying that Monta Ellis is an inefficient volume shooter is fair.

 

Saying that Monta Ellis is an idiotic chucker who has repeatedly benefited from playing in a wide open offense where he was free to hog the ball, shoot as often as he wanted, never play defense, and inflate his stat totals by playing gargantuan numbers of minutes is cruel.

But also fair.

 

1.15 points per shot attempt is Nick Young-ian, and I don't say that just because I'm a person who has to watch Wizards games and daydreams about roasting marshmallows over Young's burning corpse every time he checks into the game.

 

Nick Young is currently averaging 1.12 points per shot attempt. His career average is 1.16, and that's Nick Young: the worst chucking chucker in the NBA.

Even Nick Young can't believe that a person exists who scores less efficiently than him.

Monta Ellis is a player who has made a name for himself based entirely on his ability to take a whole lot of shots and play a whole lot of minutes. But he's never won anything, and an even cursory examination of his advanced stats explains why.

 

For instance, in 2009-2010, Monta Ellis finished 6th in the NBA in scoring, averaging 25.5 points per game. And that's really good, right up until you look at his advanced stats, which suck out loud.

 

PER, as stated, greatly overvalues volume shooting. So you should keep that in mind when I tell you that his PER that year was 16.7. That's only slightly better than what JJ Redick is putting up this year. Ryan Anderson is putting up 22.3

 

Even more amazing is the number of win shares Ellis put up that season: 1.3, all of them defensive. Actually process that for a second: Monta Ellis didn't finish with a single fraction of an offensive win share in a year he finished 6th in the NBA in scoring. How is that even possible? In the year Orlando lost 18 in a row, Tracy McGrady finished the year with 8 offensive win shares, and that team only won 22 games.

 

I tried to find a picture that was as scary as that Magic team. This will do.

 

This year, yeah, Ellis is a little better. PER of 19 and even a few win shares. Of course, his team is still 3 points better per 100 possessions when he's parked on the goddamned bench. Oh, and even based on PER, he's been the third best player on his team, and 82 games has his Simple Rating at 1.7, good for 7th on his team.

 

He's a volume chucker. He's ALWAYS been a volume chucker. I thought we all knew this. I thought we all knew this.

And yet there I was last night, reading page after page of people waxing idyllic about Monta Ellis, as though they've never seen the guy play before:

" Ellis immediately becomes our second best player, a player that can be considered a cornerstone of the franchise along with Dwight"

 

It makes me wonder if I'm the only one who's watched the NBA before. Ellis isn't the second best player on a team that will most likely miss the playoffs, but he's going to get traded and suddenly become the second best player on a contender and a franchise cornerstone? Is this a prank? Am I on Punk'd right now?

 

Monta Ellis is a volume chucker who plays too many minutes, can't play within any offensive structure at all, and who is due to win a new set of steak knives the next time he actually guards someone, which will be his 10th time ever.

 

And this guy is gonna save our franchise? THIS is a guy you think is better option than planning for a better future with or without Dwight, who we should note can still leave anyway?

 

But that's how it always goes on this board. You dopey assholes work yourselves into a tizzy about how some insider says X, Y and Z are like, totes about to happen, you get excited for no goddamned reason(Monta Ellis? MONTA ELLIS?), then act like you've been let down. Here's an experiment for you: go on any message board about upcoming movies, and see how long it takes for someone claiming to have insider access to Hollywood film executives to show up with some huge movie scoop. You should be waiting, at most, 90 seconds.

 

This is what google thinks Hollywood insiders look like. I believe them.

 

 

Anyone on this board would call bull**** on that garbage immediately, but here? Here you lap it up like Corgi puppies.

 

On the plus side, being so stupid and looking so ridiculous IS kind of adorable.

 

And when it proves to be false, you'll run someone else off the board for telling you the rumors they heard or made up. Remember TheRevTy? He posted on this board for YEARS. Then one day, he posted a rumor he heard about Chris Paul, it proved wrong, and he was run out on a goddamned rail. And you'll do it again.

 

Because if there's one thing I've learned in the 5 and a half years I've posted on this board, it's that people here don't ever get smarter; they just find new and exciting ways to be complete idiots.

 

 

Monta Ellis?!?

As always, I'm Drunk On Mystery, and the knowledge you exist is a burden on my soul.

[DanzigMagic 11]

In his normal and arrogant way DOM makes a very valid point backed up with proper statisics.

 

 

+1

[God Hates Otis Smith 153]

[Murphy13 185]

Colorful way to bring up a redundant topic thats been explained backwards and forwards already. This probably would have fallen on more receptive ears here on TBN last week. I still believe (hope) that the majority of people here understand that Ellis is not the solution, that a vocal minority has just overrun the boards with their craziness.

[Catman 380]

I feel bad that DOM can't post without being really arrogant, but that's his own issue. He put a lot of work into this so nicely done.

 

Anyway, the "rumors" are verified now by Ken Berger, who is a top tier NBA reporter.

 

That being said, while we can argue stats and #s about Monta's inefficiency, I see it a lot simpler.

 

He can score the ball and can take over games which as a result can demand double teams.

 

When that happens with Dwight down low, the result will be a much better offense.

 

Good teams will not be able to single Dwight and single Monta like they do currently to our guards. We will finally be able to run an inside out offense properly.

 

I watch a lot of Warrior games because I have always liked the niche teams you never get to see and Monta has shown immense talent with really no one else on the floor worth passing to. They have no real C, Curry is always hurt, and the rest of the team is average. You tandem him up with Dwight and now we can finally ignite our bench as well by bringing Jameer in as 6th man.

 

Ellis/Jameer

JRich/Jameer

Steven Jackson/Liggins

Ryan Anderson (?)/Clark

Dwight/Baby

 

Is the potential rotation I see.

[Franchero MVP 391]

I definitely see the potential of him becoming the new Gilbert Arenas here, but let's not forget that Monta isn't old, isn't past his prime, and isn't injured. If he can explode to the rim and have Dwight clean up around him if he misses (kind of like what Gilbert TRIED to do), i'm cool with that. He can slash and create his own shot (unlike most people on our team currently). He would definitely get wide open looks due to Dwight being double team, and also can command a double team himself, not only setting up other teammates, but getting Dwight easier looks in the paint. He's had to deal with being the main focus of other team's defense on Golden State; well not here.

 

Regardless, If we don't have to give up Ryan, it's a no brainer. If we do, then have Dwight commit first. Thats the most important thing.

[Zara 74]

Any long time poster on this board will know a few simple but significant truths:

 

1. When it comes to basketball knowledge, I'm near the top of this board.

 

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/significant

 

:bigparty: Now let's do some trades that'll keep Dwight in ORL or use Earl at the 3 or whatever :bigparty:

[barnettej 263]

Agreeing with the above, its predicated on the system you are playing within, and who else you have on the team. Just because Ellis puts up 21+ per game on a GS team doesn't equate Ellis to doing the same in a different system like SVG's. You can take Vince Carter as your prime example, and Chris Bosh. Both players benefiting from open systems and bad teams, that allowed them to inflate their stats, because no one else could do it for their team. As soon as they move to different systems, their stats dropped because they were no longer relied on to carry the heavy load, it became a team function instead of an individual function.

[Secretly Space Jesus 670]

I feel bad that DOM can't post without being really arrogant, but that's his own issue.

 

 

In an unrelated note, there aren't enough words to describe how funny I find that Nick Young picture.

[Ibn Battuta 127]

great work, now we just need a post about stephen jackson.

 

And, even if we get monta I don't think our chances go up considerably against miami or chicago. Do we become more competitive? yeah but marginally so.

[Drain-O 369]

1.15 points per shot attempt is Nick Young-ian, and I don't say that just because I'm a person who has to watch Wizards games and daydreams about roasting marshmallows over Young's burning corpse every time he checks into the game.

 

That might be the funniest thing I have read on this board in a long, long time.

[You're Fat, Pat! 98]

I find great joy in all of the above. While I certainly follow all your above reasoning, I want Ellis here for one reason: To keep Dwight. I don't want Ellis here if Dwight doesn't sign an extension. I also think that Ellis could make some serious noise whilst being paired with the best center in basketball. Sure, he'll have a Nick Young-ian night here and there, but it comes with the territory, I guess.

 

 

A truly worthy 10,000th post. Unlike many, I'm a big DoM fan. Here's to 10,000 more in the future.