NBA analyst Rich Steinlauf ranks Duhon signing 1 of 5 worst this off-season(S.I.)

[ball junkie 277]

Steinlauf is an example of the entrepreneurial approach to statistical valuations that is revolutionizing the NBA. How many hundreds of number-crunchers are at their computers every day trying to make sense of this league? Every team is seeking to find a balance between the old-fashioned opinions of scouts and the cutting-edge analysis of statistics. What makes Steinlauf's formula especially interesting is that he places a dollar sign on his valuations -- because isn't that what matters most in today's NBA?

 

Now, Steinlauf is seeking to sell his system to an NBA team. A year ago, he sent all 30 franchises his analysis of the 2009 free-agent market. He determined that Ben Gordon would prove to be the worst signing of 2009 -- that he should be making $2.5 million less than the $10 million he was paid last season by the Pistons -- and that Ron Artest was the most cost-efficient pickup, worth $4.1 million more than the $5.9 million he was paid last season by the Lakers. Of the top 20 signings, Steinlauf turned out to be correct last season on all but one of them. His only mistake was to rate former Knicks center David Lee as a $6 million player in what turned out to be an All-Star season.

 

Here are Steinlauf's five best and five worst free-agent signings of this summer:

 

THE BEST

1. LeBron James. He'll make $14.5 million, and Steinlauf rates him at $31 million.

 

2. Dwyane Wade. He'll make $14.2 million, but Steinlauf believes he'll be worth $22.5 million in 2010-11.

 

3. Shaquille O'Neal. The Celtics will pay a veteran's minimum of $1.4 million for a future Hall of Famer who can be expected to play like a $5.5 million player. "I had him as the second-best player for Cleveland in the Boston series last year," Steinlauf said. "When you're the second-leading scorer for your team in one of the marquee playoff series, you're probably a pretty good player."

 

4. MATT BARNES. He'll make $1.8 million but he projects as a $4 million performer for the Lakers. "He's a good glue guy if you have a team with scorers," Steinlauf said.

 

5. John Salmons. The Bucks will pay him $8 million, but he's worth $9 million. "He fit very well with Brandon Jennings in that backcourt,'' Steinlauf said, "and I don't see why that shouldn't continue.''

 

 

 

THE WORST

1. Richard Jefferson. The Spurs re-signed him at a starting salary of $8.4 million, but Steinlauf believes he's worth $5 million. "I get the sense that Jason Kidd meant even more to him than one might have thought," he said.

 

2. Kyle Lowry. The Rockets will pay $5.8 million to a bench player rated at $3.5 million by Steinlauf.

 

3. Darko Milicic. He'll make $4.3 million with Minnesota, but Steinlauf rates him as worth no more than $2.5 million.

 

4. CHRIS DUHON. His salary of $3.5 million is at least $1.5 million too much, according to Steinlauf.

 

5. Amir Johnson. Steinlauf projects him as a $4 million player next season, but the Raptors will pay him $5 million. Most troubling to Steinlauf is that Johnson received four guaranteed years at $23 million. "He's being handed starter's money before he proves it," Steinlauf said. "I'd rather see him show that he can do it before he's guaranteed all of that money."

 

Interesting read...Click the link:

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/ian_thomsen/09/02/free.agent.bargains/index.html?eref=twitter_feed

[Secretly Space Jesus 670]

How incredibly arbitrary.

[Waiting For That Day 49]

Now, Steinlauf is seeking to sell his system to an NBA team. A year ago, he sent all 30 franchises his analysis of the 2009 free-agent market. He determined that Ben Gordon would prove to be the worst signing of 2009 -- that he should be making $2.5 million less than the $10 million he was paid last season by the Pistons -- and that Ron Artest was the most cost-efficient pickup, worth $4.1 million more than the $5.9 million he was paid last season by the Lakers. Of the top 20 signings, Steinlauf turned out to be correct last season on all but one of them. His only mistake was to rate former Knicks center David Lee as a $6 million player in what turned out to be an All-Star season.

 

:svgsad:

 

I hope he is wrong about Chris Duhon....

[Shock Phantom 263]

Of the top 20 signings, Steinlauf turned out to be correct last season on all but one of them

 

Based on what? So he said Ron Artest was worth 10 million dollars, and he had 1 good finals game and he is "correct"?

 

Duhon's salary is fine. The years is what I have a problem with. I think Steinlalalalalf is just comparing his salary to JWill's last year and thinks that Duhon won't give us much more prodution than JWill did.

 

Also, thanks Junkie, for posting yet another negative article.

[E27 33]

Well it's official. We'll be in the lottery. Can't argue with a random link about saying how "bad" the Duhon signing is (which I completely disagree with. I love the signing).

[Shock Phantom 263]

I'd like to pose a question. How do you guys feel about the Duhon signing in comparison to the Lakers' Steve Blake signing, which was 4 years, 16 million I believe? Better value? Not too familiar with Blake, or Duhon for that matter. Didn't really pay attention to them last season.

[Emory889 353]

I'm not sure exactly how his formula is calculated. How do you determine without a doubt that a player is worth 3 million and not 4? I know that I don't need a formula to know that signing Artest for a major discount is a good signing.

[magicLA 57]

4. CHRIS DUHON. His salary of $3.5 million is at least $1.5 million too much, according to Steinlauf.

+1.5M is meaningless if contextualized within the market supply and demand specific to when Otis made the decision. The analyst is gauging his formula over a broad general framework and time period. But at the time of the signing there was only one free agent point guard available that was marginally better than Duhon; Steve Blake - who was quickly snapped up by LA and given a similar deal. The talent drop off was considerable after that with no one available that had legitimate starter chops. Otis' decision clearly was the right choice and he paid what it took to ensure he got what was needed by a team in contention for a championship. A team who's starter is fantastic but prone to injury. $1.5 is nothing when you consider that Steinlauf is not taking into account the intangible value that the safety net (Duhon) is providing the Magic. It is an intangible value similar to that of Gortat who is overpaid for a backup center, but to a team whose Center position is so crucial to a specific style of play and whose starter is constantly in foul trouble the safety net is more valuable than any stat can accurately measure.

[magicLA 57]

I'm not sure exactly how his formula is calculated. How do you determine without a doubt that a player is worth 3 million and not 4? I know that I don't need a formula to know that signing Artest for a major discount is a good signing.

 

that formula is super flawed because it doesn't adjust to specific circumstances.... Blake can get signed by the Lakers at $4M but for him to sign on a team for example like Minnesota would have taken a considerable jump in pay scale ($5-7M range) because they suck and its the frozen tundra and he was the best available unrestricted free agent point guard on that very specific day. Specific situations change value.

 

Duhon (the best available unrestricted free agent point guard after Blake) needed to be lured into a non-starting role - which for a player in his prime who is capable of starting - is absolutely part of the equation when arriving at a $ value. Is his production worth $3.5, no one knows until the full season is played.... is $3.5M too much to secure a starting caliber point guard into a back up role - NO, he's wearing a Magic uniform right?

[jec 427]

I thought Duhon was an excellent signing. He's an upgrade at the backup point guard slot. What more could we have hoped for?

[Secretly Space Jesus 670]

Reading the article, it makes it sound like he doubled Nash's worth from last year just cause he felt like it. If he is allowed to do that, then what's the point of his system? And if you look at his rating for Nash before he randomly doubled the number, he's suggesting that having Lebron on your team is worth almost as much as having a Steve Nash-caliber player at every position.

Or more to the point, a system like his that only points out the obvious is useless, particularly when it's specifically bending to unlisted, arbitrary rules.

[Airidas 4]

Based on what? So he said Ron Artest was worth 10 million dollars, and he had 1 good finals game and he is "correct"?

 

 

Speaking about Artest, that was huge signing for Lakers. He wasn't always good at offense, but he played tremendous defense and had played extremely well in that Game 7 of the finals. I think Steinlauf was correct, because Artest brought that toughness to L.A team.

Speaking about Duhon, i'm hoping, that he will be a good back up and he will show his value :) Of course, only season will show us that so those predictions are not always a thing, which you have to believe.

And by the way, i agree that Jefferson is number 1 worst signing, because RJ doesn't fit the Spurs :)