Why Dwight is Overrated by ESPN's Peter Keating

[ball junkie 277]

quote:

Theoretically, there's another way for blocked shots to create value: by setting up fast breaks and increasing your own team's chances of scoring. Huizinga and Weil call this the "Russell," but nobody does it much today. However your team gets the ball back after you block a shot, the expected value of its next possession is pretty much the same.

 

Huizinga and Weil looked at the top 170 shot-blockers in the NBA, calculating the cumulative difference their blocks made in their respective opponents' expected points and adding the smaller effect of their Russells. (There are points-saved and points-created matrices involved here, cross-indexing how any given chance starts with the type of shot it produces to get values for various possible situations; for those, you will have to look at Huizinga and Weil's actual paper, which I will link to as soon as it's online.) The best season they found: Theo Ratliff in 2004, when he generated a monstrous 300 points off blocks. Marcus Camby in 2008 was No. 2, at 275.

 

The data yields all kinds of instructive contrasts, most clearly between Duncan and Howard (hence the name of Huizinga and Weil's paper). In 2008, Howard had 232 blocked shots, but he either saved or created just 124 points; Duncan had 149 blocks, but generated 167 points. On a points-per-block basis, Duncan has four of the top 10 seasons, according to Huizinga and Weil. Howard has three of the bottom 10.

 

This research leads to a number of interesting questions: Do players' shot-blocking skills change over time? Is it possible to predict how a player's blocks will change if you put him on a different team? Watching Huizinga present the data, I also wondered if he and Weil could expand their points-saved methodology to look at all defensive plays, or at least further types of defensive plays. In the meantime, though, it's clear we need to pay attention not only to the number of shots a player or team blocks, but to which plays are blocked and, especially, what kind of results those blocks generate.

 

Not sure if it's an insider article or not...gave you the last 4 paragraphs.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/esp...7&name=keating_peter

[ball junkie 277]

quote:

Theoretically, there's another way for blocked shots to create value: by setting up fast breaks and increasing your own team's chances of scoring. Huizinga and Weil call this the "Russell," but nobody does it much today. However your team gets the ball back after you block a shot, the expected value of its next possession is pretty much the same.

 

Huizinga and Weil looked at the top 170 shot-blockers in the NBA, calculating the cumulative difference their blocks made in their respective opponents' expected points and adding the smaller effect of their Russells. (There are points-saved and points-created matrices involved here, cross-indexing how any given chance starts with the type of shot it produces to get values for various possible situations; for those, you will have to look at Huizinga and Weil's actual paper, which I will link to as soon as it's online.) The best season they found: Theo Ratliff in 2004, when he generated a monstrous 300 points off blocks. Marcus Camby in 2008 was No. 2, at 275.

 

The data yields all kinds of instructive contrasts, most clearly between Duncan and Howard (hence the name of Huizinga and Weil's paper). In 2008, Howard had 232 blocked shots, but he either saved or created just 124 points; Duncan had 149 blocks, but generated 167 points. On a points-per-block basis, Duncan has four of the top 10 seasons, according to Huizinga and Weil. Howard has three of the bottom 10.

 

This research leads to a number of interesting questions: Do players' shot-blocking skills change over time? Is it possible to predict how a player's blocks will change if you put him on a different team? Watching Huizinga present the data, I also wondered if he and Weil could expand their points-saved methodology to look at all defensive plays, or at least further types of defensive plays. In the meantime, though, it's clear we need to pay attention not only to the number of shots a player or team blocks, but to which plays are blocked and, especially, what kind of results those blocks generate.

 

Not sure if it's an insider article or not...gave you the last 4 paragraphs.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/esp...7&name=keating_peter

[Miller4Prez64 1]

ESPN taking a dump on Dwight? What else is new...

[Progfrog 18]

The hate just flourishes any time the Magic play well.

 

And I think that the team feeds off of it. So let them hate.

[NotByChoice 2]

You beat Lebron and Kobe you get he ire of the national media.

 

I love it!!

[MAGICFAN365 0]

Overrated? Really ESPN. Ok, I mean since YOU say so. I will say that I sometimes wish that Dwight would block some of those shots in the direction of his teammates to start fast breaks or at least to maintain possession instead of banging it out of bounds. It is more of a highlight yes and in the heat of the moment so understand I am not complaining, but that may be why those "stats" are the way they are.

 

Even though I do leave my tv on ESPN in the mornings getting ready for work cause I love sports period, I dont expect much "love" towards anything resembling our Magic or my Bucs. So this does not surprise me in the least bit. They did give us two commercials though! Guess thats to even out BLATANT disrespect.

[AddiFB 429]

ESPN

 

/thread

[Ned Ryerson 94]

Interesting read. I guess if you were to go with only the stats, you would have to agree. However, once Dwight knocks one into the 10th row, or just the fact that he is out there, it changes the way the other team takes the ball to the basket.

 

And a team taking more jump shots because of Dwight down low, using the stats of the article, is much less successful.

[The Total Tommy 0]

Is that why even LeBron stays out of the paint when Dwight's lurking? I struggle to think of a player who has as much of an effect on other teams' slashers, making them really think twice about attacking the rim.

[The Total Tommy 0]

Sorry WPMagic... didn't mean to bite your post...

[i HATE Rich DeVos 1]

I know they're not considering how Dwight intimidates opponents into taking jump shots but Are dwights goaltending calls a factor in this martrix?

[The Total Tommy 0]

There's also the crowd-factor. At Amway, his swats get the crowd riled up, and on the road it demoralizes the fans.