2014 Draft Thread

[JamminJ21 35]

 

 

the odds for our pick tonight

[CTMagicUK 1,488]

So we have a 70% chance of top 4? That's not too bad..

[TreyMachine 398]

Are there any watch parties here in Orlando to watch the Magic Lottery drawing tonight?

 

I'm honestly freaking out over our future being controlled through a lottery. 8PM cannot come soon enough.

[jmmagicfan 302]

 

 

the odds for our pick tonight

 

I really hate these kinds of graphics, because they are so simplistic and completely wrong it isn't even funny. No one knows what their odds are to win pick #2 until pick #1 is done, and no one knows the odds of winning #3 until after #2 is done. The odds change depending on who won the preceding pick(s).

 

Here is how it works. There are 14 ping pong balls in the hopper, and they pick 4. That means there are 1001 possible combinations. 1000 of them are assigned to the 14 lottery teams. (if combo 1001 comes up they do a re-pick).

 

1. Milwaukee Bucks: 25.0 percent (250 number combinations)

2. Philadelphia 76ers: 19.9 percent (199 number combinations)

3. Orlando Magic: 15.6 percent (156 number combinations)

4. Utah Jazz: 10.4 percent (104 combos)

5. Boston Celtics: 10.3 percent (103 combos)

6. Los Angeles Lakers: 6.3 percent (63 combos)

7. Sacramento Kings: 4.3 percent (43 combos)

8. Detroit Pistons: 2.8 percent (28 combos)

9. Cleveland Cavaliers: 1.7 percent (17 combos)

10. New Orleans Pelicans: 1.1 percent (11 combos)

11. Denver Nuggets: 0.8 percent (8 combos)

12. New York Knicks: 0.7 percent (7 combos)

13. Minnesota Timberwolves: 0.6 percent (6 combos)

14. Phoenix Suns: 0.5 percent (5 combos)

 

After the top pick is won, they re-fill the hopper with all 14 balls and pick 4 for the next combination. If the combo for pick #2 belongs to the team that already won the top pick, they do over. The same goes for pick #3. The combinations of the winners of pick #1's and pick #2's are no longer valid, and would cause a redraw. The odds of getting the second and third pick varies directly based on who won the preceding pick(s). For example:

 

Say Milwaukee won the first pick, there are now 750 valid combos for #2 (1001 combos - 1 unassigned - 250 assigned to Milw)

Orlando's odds of winning pick number two is now 20.8% (156 combos out of possible 750)

 

But let's say Phoenix won the first pick, now there are now 995 valid combos (1001- 1 unassigned- 5 assigned to Phoenix)

Orlando's odd of winning pick number two is now 15.7% (156 out of 995)

 

If Milwaukee and Philly get #1 and #2, Orlando's odds of winning #3 are 28.3% (156 out of 551)(1001 - 1 - 250 - 199)

If Phoenix and Minnesota went #1 and #2, our odds of winning #3 are 15.8% (156 out of 989)(1001 - 1 - 5 - 6)

[JamminJ21 35]

Are there any watch parties here in Orlando to watch the Magic Lottery drawing tonight?

 

I'm honestly freaking out over our future being controlled through a lottery. 8PM cannot come soon enough.

 

 

last year they hosted one at the Amway, but you had to be on a list to get in - used it as a way to get people's contact to reach out about ticket packages. I'm sure they're doing something similar this year

[CTMagicUK 1,488]

I really hate these kinds of graphics, because they are so simplistic and completely wrong it isn't even funny. No one knows what their odds are to win pick #2 until pick #1 is done, and no one knows the odds of winning #3 until after #2 is done. The odds change depending on who won the preceding pick(s).

 

Here is how it works. There are 14 ping pong balls in the hopper, and they pick 4. That means there are 1001 possible combinations. 1000 of them are assigned to the 14 lottery teams. (if combo 1001 comes up they do a re-pick).

 

1. Milwaukee Bucks: 25.0 percent (250 number combinations)

2. Philadelphia 76ers: 19.9 percent (199 number combinations)

3. Orlando Magic: 15.6 percent (156 number combinations)

4. Utah Jazz: 10.4 percent (104 combos)

5. Boston Celtics: 10.3 percent (103 combos)

6. Los Angeles Lakers: 6.3 percent (63 combos)

7. Sacramento Kings: 4.3 percent (43 combos)

8. Detroit Pistons: 2.8 percent (28 combos)

9. Cleveland Cavaliers: 1.7 percent (17 combos)

10. New Orleans Pelicans: 1.1 percent (11 combos)

11. Denver Nuggets: 0.8 percent (8 combos)

12. New York Knicks: 0.7 percent (7 combos)

13. Minnesota Timberwolves: 0.6 percent (6 combos)

14. Phoenix Suns: 0.5 percent (5 combos)

 

After the top pick is won, they re-fill the hopper with all 14 balls and pick 4 for the next combination. If the combo for pick #2 belongs to the team that already won the top pick, they do over. The same goes for pick #3. The combinations of the winners of pick #1's and pick #2's are no longer valid, and would cause a redraw. The odds of getting the second and third pick varies directly based on who won the preceding pick(s). For example:

 

Say Milwaukee won the first pick, there are now 750 valid combos for #2 (1001 combos - 1 unassigned - 250 assigned to Milw)

Orlando's odds of winning pick number two is now 20.8% (156 combos out of possible 750)

 

But let's say Phoenix won the first pick, now there are now 995 valid combos (1001- 1 unassigned- 5 assigned to Phoenix)

Orlando's odd of winning pick number two is now 15.7% (156 out of 995)

 

If Milwaukee and Philly get #1 and #2, Orlando's odds of winning #3 are 28.3% (156 out of 551)(1001 - 1 - 250 - 199)

If Phoenix and Minnesota went #1 and #2, our odds of winning #3 are 15.8% (156 out of 989)(1001 - 1 - 5 - 6)

 

Of course the odds increase for us getting the 2nd pick conditional on Milwaukee getting the 1st pick but right now, as it stands, before any ping pong balls move, the Magic have a 15.7% chance at the 2nd pick. That's not "completely wrong", that's true.

[jmmagicfan 302]

Of course the odds increase for us getting the 2nd pick conditional on Milwaukee getting the 1st pick but right now, as it stands, before any ping pong balls move, the Magic have a 15.7% chance at the 2nd pick. That's not "completely wrong", that's true.

 

It is wrong because it a meaningless number, based on an impossible supposition. There is absolutely no chance that the 2nd pick will occur without the first pick happening, the balls moving, and the odds changing.

 

Furthermore, it lists our odds of winning the 3rd pick as 15.6%; the worst case scenario for our odds is if Phoenix and Minnesota go #1 and #2, as our odds then become 156/989 or 15.774%. So according to the original graphic, our "odds" of winning the third pick is actually less than the worst case scenario?!? Really, does that actually make sense to anyone?

[JamminJ21 35]

It is wrong because it a meaningless number, based on an impossible supposition. There is absolutely no chance that the 2nd pick will occur without the first pick happening, the balls moving, and the odds changing.

 

Furthermore, it lists our odds of winning the 3rd pick as 15.6%; the worst case scenario for our odds is if Phoenix and Minnesota go #1 and #2, as our odds then become 156/989 or 15.774%. So according to the original graphic, our "odds" of winning the third pick is actually less than the worst case scenario?!? Really, does that actually make sense to anyone?

 

i actually fell asleep trying to make sense of all these numbers haha...less than 4 hours!

[CTMagicUK 1,488]

It is wrong because it a meaningless number, based on an impossible supposition. There is absolutely no chance that the 2nd pick will occur without the first pick happening, the balls moving, and the odds changing.

 

Furthermore, it lists our odds of winning the 3rd pick as 15.6%; the worst case scenario for our odds is if Phoenix and Minnesota go #1 and #2, as our odds then become 156/989 or 15.774%. So according to the original graphic, our "odds" of winning the third pick is actually less than the worst case scenario?!? Really, does that actually make sense to anyone?

 

That would be because of the The Law of Total Probability. Basically the probability of an event A happening (say the Magic getting the 2nd pick, not 3rd pick for simplicity) is equal to the sum of the probability that A happens conditional on all of the events B_n ( so long as the B_n are pairwise disjoint and form the entire sample space which they do since in this case they are "insert lottery team here" gets the number 1 pick) multiplied by the probability of said B_n happening.

 

In essence the probability of the Magic picking second is the probability of the magic picking second given that the sixers pick first, multiplied by the probability of the sixers picking first added to the probability of the magic picking second given that the Timberwolves pick 1st multiplied by the probability that they pick first etc etc.

 

Obviously picking 3rd adds an extra layer as you have to use picking second as well. In essence it's not the "worst case" that the Suns/Wolves pick 1st/2nd since the probability of that happening is so ridiculously small that it adds very little to our outcome when we add up the numbers in the law of total probability.

 

Now I haven't checked the above numbers but since every source I can find lists them I assume they're correct because someone out there would have worked it out differently otherwise.

 

TL;DR you're wrong.

[Miller4Prez66 545]

Seeing that our odds are best to land the 5th pick scares me....

[jmmagicfan 302]

i actually fell asleep trying to make sense of all these numbers haha...less than 4 hours!

 

Here's the simplest answer - 15.6% chance we win the first pick, that can not change.

 

Calculating the odds beyond that, without knowing the results of the first pick is an exercise in some crazy mathematics, and reasonably pointless. Everyone's odds go up, because you still have the same number of potential winning combinations, but the "pool" is smaller.

[Nyce_1 311]

3 MORE HOURS GUYS!!!!