OrlandoMagic777 19 Report post Posted April 18, 2013 This is what's called a false equivocation. The issue isn't whether or not I would bet my life's savings on a 25% chance to win. If you want your metaphor to be accurate, I'd have to have no choice but bet my life savings to win, and now I'm choosing which percentage chance I want to put it on. In that scenario, you'd have to be a completely ignorant asshat to not pick the option that has the highest probability to win. You're essentially arguing that the Magic can choose between a 25% chance of the #1 seed or a 75% chance of the #1 seed, but that's not how it works. They can choose between a 25% chance, a 20% chance, a 15.6% chance, an 11.9% chance and so on. So when given THOSE specific options, people on this board are saying that Orlando should, given the option, choose the one that provides the best possible chance of the desired outcome. The worst record in the NBA guarantees Orlando a top 4 pick, and a 46.5% of a top 2 pick. Those are the best outcomes, so the Magic should want that. And since, again, you don't understand probability(note: this makes you less intelligent than the remedial high school kids my sister teaches at Olympia): if you flip a coin, and it comes up heads, that fact will never have any bearing on any other flip of that or any other coin from then until the universe dies it's inevitable heat death. Honest coins, like honest dice and honest NBA Draft ping pong balls, don't have memories. Well said, however, this is a year where the #1 pick is a toss up. In '03 you had Lebron and '04 you had Howard. I know that even a Tim Duncan or an Allen Iverson or a Shaquille, no matter, is a risk with injury or underperformance or a draft bust like a Greg Oden can always happen. But in this year's draft class, I'd rather see us win our last game against our hated rivals and have a good benchmark and signature win(even if they are sitting some starters) and get the #2, #3 pick, than to see us lose this game and get the #1 pick and use the pick on some guy that could easily have been a #2 pick, #3 pick, #4 pic etc. Right now winning this game is more important to me in the grand scheme of things than having more ping pong balls in a vacuum. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Miller4Prez66 545 Report post Posted April 18, 2013 It is looking like we will end up with the worst record. Charlotte is up on Cleveland and we are looking bad here tonight. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
s1n1st3r12 27 Report post Posted April 18, 2013 What I read is "I am ignorant and I refuse to realize basic laws of probability". I dont understand why everone is riding this guy, why is it such a big deal to have pride in your team and want them to win. Who really care about the statistics of getting the #1 pick knowing our luck this year we probably wont get it anyway. I hope magic win it just boosts morale and you end the season on a high. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Captain Hi-Top 791 Report post Posted April 18, 2013 Dude why are you posting that panicking looking graphic as if I don't know what I'm talking about. In the last 22 years of the current system used by the NBA Draft Lottery (1000 balls, teams given weighted number of chances based on final record) the team with the worst record has won the 1st overall pick only twice (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery#Lottery_winners) (Cavs in 2003, Magic in 2004). Because you absolutely have no idea what you are talking about. However, how about I break it down to your logical "statistical analysis" for you and see what you think. Every time the Magic have had the worst record in the league, we've walked away with the first pic. Boom. We are guaranteed the top pic if we have the worst record. Stats don't lie, bro! It's all right there. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Secretly Space Jesus 670 Report post Posted April 18, 2013 I dont understand why everone is riding this guy, why is it such a big deal to have pride in your team and want them to win. Who really care about the statistics of getting the #1 pick knowing our luck this year we probably wont get it anyway. I hope magic win it just boosts morale and you end the season on a high. Had his/her only post in the thread been: "You know, I'd rather end the season on a win and deal with the draft consequences then lose and guarantee the best shot at the #1 pick", I doubt anyone would have really cared all that much. Some would disagree(I would), but no one would have cared enough to argue about it beyond a post or two. What people are annoyed by is the seemingly deliberate misrepresentation or gross misunderstanding of how probability actually works, then doubled down on the misrepresentation/misunderstanding, then called everyone bad fans for not buying that argument. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
magicblue 315 Report post Posted April 18, 2013 Well said, however, this is a year where the #1 pick is a toss up. In '03 you had Lebron and '04 you had Howard. I know that even a Tim Duncan or an Allen Iverson or a Shaquille, no matter, is a risk with injury or underperformance or a draft bust like a Greg Oden can always happen. But in this year's draft class, I'd rather see us win our last game against our hated rivals and have a good benchmark and signature win(even if they are sitting some starters) and get the #2, #3 pick, than to see us lose this game and get the #1 pick and use the pick on some guy that could easily have been a #2 pick, #3 pick, #4 pic etc. Right now winning this game is more important to me in the grand scheme of things than having more ping pong balls in a vacuum. A win tonight, when Miami has nothing to play for and are sitting Lebron, Bosh, and Chalmers is in no way, shape, or form a "signature win". Not to mention you've completely changed the subject of your earlier posts from "we shouldn't want to have the best chance because we actually don't" to "why would we want the best chance when this draft sucks". Plus we're down 13, so again...fail. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
s1n1st3r12 27 Report post Posted April 18, 2013 Gotta say one thing, good turnout of people on the forum most I have seen in one thread in a long time. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bauncey Chillups 288 Report post Posted April 18, 2013 Beno's stats are so empty Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
s1n1st3r12 27 Report post Posted April 18, 2013 Sometimes we really make it hard for ourselves with dumb decisions and turnovers... been killing us all season Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Miller4Prez66 545 Report post Posted April 18, 2013 I'm not going to cheer for my team to lose, especially when this lottery has no real prize. I want to win but don't care either way, I'm ready to move into the offseason. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
OrlandoMagic777 19 Report post Posted April 18, 2013 I do understand probability. By losing tonight, we would have a better shot at landing the #1 pick. I understand that. Ping pong balls don't have memories, past drafts don't count, yada yada yada I get that. But I wouldn't know who to pick at #1 in this sub par draft class, you don't either, and I don't think Hennigan does either. It's just one of those draft classes where you just don't know. This game tonight like some of you suggested, doesn't amount to a whole lot. This season is going to go down as the worst season in franchise history second only to our inaugural 1989 season where only 18 wins were achieved. I do not want our team, this season, with so much promise, with so much realistic potential at at least making the playoffs as a #8 seed, to go down as the worst team. Why am I being attacked for that? Fan-ship is all a big pissing contest anyway and basketball is a game and bragging rights are exchanged every year. There are kids starving in Africa and it's all a game in the grand scheme of things. However, at the end of the season, a simple win can carry over into the off season. Winning boosts morale. Winning your last game would be favorable to say, winning your 3rd to last game and dropping your final 2. I wonder if our 15 strong in uniform or dressed are hoping for a win tonight?? I mean, according to you guys it doesn't matter right? Nobody wants to lose. I, as a FAN, am hoping for a WIN tonight. The whole reason this is even a discussion is because I replied to a comment on page 1 about a fan not understanding why anybody would be rooting for Orlando tonight. I attempted to explain why a fan would be rooting for his own team tonight. You guys are taking this too far and if you want to cheer for the heat that's your prerogative. I for one cannot stand the heat and I am not comfortable with our signature win of the season being beating the Lakers in L.A or the Clippers. I want to beat this team even if they are playing their d-league players doesn't matter. You will never see a yankees fan rooting for the red sox when they play each other under any circumstances and vice versa. THIS IS THE LAST GAME PEOPLE. We will not see our beloved Magic play again until a half a year from today has gone by. I want our boys to send their season out with a victory, not just for me as a fan but for them after all of the strides they have made and all of the difficulties that have arisen as a result of losing Dwight and having to start from scratch with 5 rookies and 3 second year players in uniform for a few of those games. Go Magic!!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NittanyBuc 757 Report post Posted April 18, 2013 This is what's called a false equivocation. The issue isn't whether or not I would bet my life's savings on a 25% chance to win. If you want your metaphor to be accurate, I'd have to have no choice but bet my life savings to win, and now I'm choosing which percentage chance I want to put it on. In that scenario, you'd have to be a completely ignorant asshat to not pick the option that has the highest probability to win. You're essentially arguing that the Magic can choose between a 25% chance of the #1 seed or a 75% chance of the #1 seed, but that's not how it works. They can choose between a 25% chance, a 20% chance, a 15.6% chance, an 11.9% chance and so on. So when given THOSE specific options, people on this board are saying that Orlando should, given the option, choose the one that provides the best possible chance of the desired outcome. The worst record in the NBA guarantees Orlando a top 4 pick, and a 46.5% of a top 2 pick. Those are the best outcomes, so the Magic should want that. And since, again, you don't understand probability(note: this makes you less intelligent than the remedial high school kids my sister teaches at Olympia): if you flip a coin, and it comes up heads, that fact will never have any bearing on any other flip of that or any other coin from then until the universe dies it's inevitable heat death. Honest coins, like honest dice and honest NBA Draft ping pong balls, don't have memories. I graduated from Olympia, how long has your sister been working there? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
