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The Neighborhood Bully

2018-19 Official Season Discussion Thread

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2 minutes ago, Odin said:

More from the Ringer on Magic:

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/1/14/18181720/nba-misused-players-justise-winslow

I agree with a lot of this, besides the final conclusion. (What is with the national media always wanting us to trade away any youngster that shows any ability? Then when we invariably do (Because this team is sometimes not very smart) they go 'hahaha, look at the Magic trading away any player that ever becomes good.') But it is kind of funny that they publish this article after two of his better games this season.

Yeah. It's basically what I've been saying this season. We're catering to Vucevic which isn't necessarily bad. It works pretty often. But it's limiting some of the other guys around him because that style of play doesn't mesh with the roster as a whole. 

And I think that's why the bench has been bad. 

And it's why Birch has helped. He knows what he is. He doesn't try to play like vucevic. So the last two games we've played like two different teams based on lineups and it's helping. 

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43 minutes ago, Odin said:

More from the Ringer on Magic:

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/1/14/18181720/nba-misused-players-justise-winslow

I agree with a lot of this, besides the final conclusion. (What is with the national media always wanting us to trade away any youngster that shows any ability? Then when we invariably do (Because this team is sometimes not very smart) they go 'hahaha, look at the Magic trading away any player that ever becomes good.') But it is kind of funny that they publish this article after two of his better games this season.

The national media is justified with that attitude if you really know this franchise. Most magic players have either been traded or left our team disgruntled in some way. 

This goes all the way back to Shaq and Penny. 

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Just now, hootie249 said:

The national media is justified with that attitude if you really know this franchise. Most magic players have either been traded or left our team disgruntled in some way. 

This goes all the way back to Shaq and Penny. 

Most NBA players are traded or leave disgruntled. It's not a magic centric problem. If they were gruntled they wouldn't leave. 

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1 hour ago, ?4thewin said:

Plus Lowe, Vecenie, and Kevin O'Connor have come out recently saying Gordon's a victim of his circumstances

Absolutely. He needs to be able to facilitate more.

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Quote

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B

At 19-24 the Magic are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 16.9 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 14 good wins vs 7 bad losses. They have won 35% of their road games and were expected to win 32%. At home they have a 52% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 46%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (5-7, 42%) is better than their expected 39% win percentage. In simulations where the Magic played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 40.9% of the time (#23 in the league). They have moved up from #29 in the league back on 7/9. 

STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 53.9% (#25 in League). They average 103.3 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 104.7. On the road they average 100.8 (103.6 expected), and at home 105.5 ppg (105.7 expected). 

DEFENSE (AVERAGE): They are an average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 55.5 true FG% (#15 in League). They allow 107.2 pts per game vs an expected value of 108.1. They are allowing 105 (109.2 expected) on the road, and at home 109 ppg (107.1 expected). 

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 2.7 per game (#24 in league). 

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.3 per game (#15 in league). 

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY

The Magic next 5 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 3 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 45% chance of winning, and 7 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (34% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 9.5%. Their chances of winning their next 5 are 1%. At #9 in the conference, they are behind the Hornets by half a game. With a +0.49 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are in a battle with Pistons in the conference. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Pistons. There is only a -0.17 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Magic are the 8th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Magic are playing 7 games, traveling 5932 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #13 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

https://www.scout.com/basketball/nba/news/orlando-magic-projected-to-improve-on-their-19-24-record-with-34-wins-next-season-but-still-not-in-the-east-playoff-picture/

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Vuc is basically an NFL running back. He is highly productive at an oversaturated position and he lacks the versatility to fit everywhere.

 

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31 minutes ago, The Neighborhood Bully said:

I like breakdowns like this especially the fatigue stats as those kind of numbers are not brought up in everyday breakdowns even places like here where we obsess over the team. 

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4 hours ago, Jay Magic said:

Share the ball more guys...

It's easier to get assists when your shots go in. 

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