2016 Off-Season Thread

[fan for too long 2 532]

It depends on how many years on the contract. He will be 29 in October. And has an injury. You all want to pay a 34 yr old point guard? I am still not convinced that Payton's shot is not fixable.

[Mike1989 68]

I wouldn't be surprised if Conley leaves Memphis because their window closed last season, though arguably they missed their best chance when they got swept by the Spurs in the western finals. Don't get me wrong, Marc Gasol is still an excellent player, but who else have they got to build around? No one really of note. So while Conley can get an extra year and money from Memphis, I think if Conley wants to join a play off team and compete for a championship he'll look elsewhere. Unless he truly backs himself and Marc Gasol to be able to lead Memphis on their backs to the play offs and championship contention in the years to come...

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

It depends on how many years on the contract. He will be 29 in October. And has an injury. You all want to pay a 34 yr old point guard? I am still not convinced that Payton's shot is not fixable.

 

The max we can offer him is 5 years. So that's his 29, 30, 31, 32, and 33 seasons.

 

That's probably 3 years of his prime and 2 years as a solid veteran starter

[HeHateMe 697]

If we get Conley, what do we do with Elfrid?

 

The other nice thing about bringing in Conley is it in no way means your giving up on Payton. First of all, every team needs a good backup PG and there would still be minutes to go around for Payton as a backup. But also, and more importantly it gives Payton time time to develop his game. Then, when Payton's rookie deal is up in 3 years (I think?) we could than be able to make a decision on keeping him or not. Either way, it's gaining an asset that could help us out at that time.

[SiMON2g 5]

Conley isn't the right fit for this team.

 

He is in the sense he will improve us, but he wont be utilized efficiently.

 

With the pace we play at, it is completely different to the type of game he has modeled for himself these bunch of uyears in Memphis playing with Gasol and Randolph.

 

I do think he can adapt and be a solid player here. But he will no way come close to what his peak output in memphis was.

 

He is not a guy who will break down defense individual, he generally needs a screen to break down and penetrate. Elfrid does not.

 

If Elfrid can bring his 3P% up a few more tickets, he will be league average and no one here will be wanting to get rid of Elfrid. He is a guy who can lead a team, both ends of the floor. It's something special we have with him and Victor, it's a shame of course the shooting is not there.

 

I still am a believer that it can be improved, it's been a massive improvement from Elfrid this seaosn on both mid range and three's. He shot 32.6% from three.

 

Take for example, Rondo never exceeded Elfird's percentage this year during his years with Boston and was an all-star caliber player on a championship team getting it done.

 

If elfrid can reach a respectable rate, somewhere close to 36-38% I would say that is one heck of an improvement and I do honestly believe we should be sticking it out with him.

[The Neighborhood Bully 266]

The max we can offer him is 5 years. So that's his 29, 30, 31, 32, and 33 seasons.

 

That's probably 3 years of his prime and 2 years as a solid veteran starter

 

Pretty sure only Memphis can give him 5 years.

[Mike1989 68]

If we get Conley, what do we do with Elfrid?

 

I would assume he would be move into the back up role or be a trade asset.

 

The thing we need to do is perhaps come to the realisation that some of our young talent might not remain on this roster if we want to make the jump to the next level. It would be great if Payton, Oladipo, Fournier, Gordon and Vuc become the next competitive young team in the league. I'd love to see them become a play off team next season, then develop into a contender. But is it likely that starting five will achieve that? Probably not. We don't have a budding star in the line up. We have players good young players with upside, but no real star. Realistically that limits how far we can go, so we may have to accept that some of that line up might not remain starters long term on this roster as we aim to make the jump to the next level and beyond.

 

The other nice thing about bringing in Conley is it in no way means your giving up on Payton. First of all, every team needs a good backup PG and there would still be minutes to go around for Payton as a backup. But also, and more importantly it gives Payton time time to develop his game. Then, when Payton's rookie deal is up in 3 years (I think?) we could than be able to make a decision on keeping him or not. Either way, it's gaining an asset that could help us out at that time.

 

Agreed, we shouldn't allow our admiration of our young talent to cloud our judgement. If we can land an upgrade in free agency or a trade, then we should do it because sooner or later we should want to be a play off team. We need some help for that to happen, unless something unexpected happens and the likes of Oladipo, Gordon and Vuc become all stars and carry this team to the play offs. I guess it wouldn't be unexpected from our fan view point, but I think most outside of here accept we have good young talent but not real great player to carry us. So for us to make that next step we may need to move on in some way from one, two, or even three of our starting line up.

[Magicman28 295]

The max we can offer him is 5 years. So that's his 29, 30, 31, 32, and 33 seasons.

 

That's probably 3 years of his prime and 2 years as a solid veteran starter

 

 

With tendinitis...

[The Neighborhood Bully 266]

Conley, according to CARMELO, is having his worst season of WAR in his last three seasons. He’s projected for a slight uptick in 2016, but his WAR descends slowly after that. For the five seasons he would be under contract, his projected WAR, which spans the middle 80% of likely WAR possibilities, are 6.2, 4.8, 4.4, 3.2, and 2.2. For reference, Stephen Curry‘s WAR over the next five years dips below 10 only once.

 

To further complicate things, Conley’s top three comps, Isiah Thomas, Chauncey Billups, and Jason Terry, all began their career descent at age 28. These three player comparisons are especially significant because they post similarity scores of 60 or above with Conley. Similarity scores above 50, according to Silver, are rare, and “similarity scores above 60 are even rarer.” So rare that Silver characterized players with similarity scores from 60-99 as “separated at birth.”

Thomas won his second championship with the Detroit Pistons at age 28 in 1990. He posted a win shares per 48 of .107, already the second-worst mark of his career to that point. Every year following 1990, according to Basketball-Reference, Thomas’ WS/48, net rating, box plus/minus, and value over replacement player fell until his retirement in 1994. That’s not to say that Thomas wasn’t a good player in those five years—he went to four All-Star games in that span. But his production suffered every year in the process.

 

Billups is a bit of different spin on the same story. In 2005, the year after HIS Pistons won the Finals, Billups posted a then-career high net rating, BPM, and VORP while netting a near career high in WS/48. The following three seasons were the best of his career, with three All-Star appearances, the final three of six consecutive Eastern Conference Finals appearances, and another Finals appearance, and he set a number of career-best marks. Basically, he did what 29- to 31-year-old guards are supposed to do.

 

But after 2008, what would be his fourth season since the end of his age 28 campaign, Billups’ numbers took a huge hit. His WS/48 dropped from a career-high .257 to .174, and his BPM dropped from a career-high 6.1 to 2.5. His age 33 year saw a marginal increase in efficiency, but nowhere near what it had been two years prior. And—same old song and dance—after his age 33 season, his numbers slipped across the board for the rest of his career.

 

http://thesportsquot...onleys-upcoming

[HeHateMe 697]

Conley isn't the right fit for this team.

 

He is in the sense he will improve us, but he wont be utilized efficiently.

 

With the pace we play at, it is completely different to the type of game he has modeled for himself these bunch of uyears in Memphis playing with Gasol and Randolph.

 

I do think he can adapt and be a solid player here. But he will no way come close to what his peak output in memphis was.

 

He is not a guy who will break down defense individual, he generally needs a screen to break down and penetrate. Elfrid does not.

 

If Elfrid can bring his 3P% up a few more tickets, he will be league average and no one here will be wanting to get rid of Elfrid. He is a guy who can lead a team, both ends of the floor. It's something special we have with him and Victor, it's a shame of course the shooting is not there.

 

I still am a believer that it can be improved, it's been a massive improvement from Elfrid this seaosn on both mid range and three's. He shot 32.6% from three.

 

Take for example, Rondo never exceeded Elfird's percentage this year during his years with Boston and was an all-star caliber player on a championship team getting it done.

 

If elfrid can reach a respectable rate, somewhere close to 36-38% I would say that is one heck of an improvement and I do honestly believe we should be sticking it out with him.

 

We play at a different pace then Memphis does, but that doesn't mean Conley won't work here. In fact, like I've said before, I think his numbers could be much better if he played in a more uptempo system. He would be better utilized here than he has been in Memphis. He would be allowed to run more in transition and that's what he's really good at. He's one of the quickest PG's in the league. Conley is able to penetrate easily, not sure where your getting that he needs a screen in order to do so, because anytime I've watched him that has not been the case.

 

Also, you state that we have something special in Dipo/Payton but in 2 years I haven't seen anything special with them playing together. I have more questions marks about them succeeding together than I do certainties.

 

Why sit around and wait 2-3 years to see if Payton improves his shot to the 36-38% that you talk about when you can bring in a better overall player now? Again, this is great because if Payton improves like you think he will then in 2-3 years we can either trade Conley or Payton at that time and bring in someone to fill whatever void we may have at that time.

 

I don't know why people think if we bring in another PG, say Conley in this scenario, that it means were giving up on Payton. That just isn't the case at all. Unless we trade Payton, we have him on the books here for 3 more years so he still has plenty time to develop.

 

Again, this theory really goes for any PG we bring in whether its Conley or some other guy.

[Magicman28 295]

We play at a different pace then Memphis does, but that doesn't mean Conley won't work here. In fact, like I've said before, I think his numbers could be much better if he played in a more uptempo system. He would be better utilized here than he has been in Memphis. He would be allowed to run more in transition and that's what he's really good at. He's one of the quickest PG's in the league. Conley is able to penetrate easily, not sure where your getting that he needs a screen in order to do so, because anytime I've watched him that has not been the case.

 

Also, you state that we have something special in Dipo/Payton but in 2 years I haven't seen anything special with them playing together. I have more questions marks about them succeeding together than I do certainties.

 

Why sit around and wait 2-3 years to see if Payton improves his shot to the 36-38% that you talk about when you can bring in a better overall player now? Again, this is great because if Payton improves like you think he will then in 2-3 years we can either trade Conley or Payton at that time and bring in someone to fill whatever void we may have at that time.

 

I don't know why people think if we bring in another PG, say Conley in this scenario, that it means were giving up on Payton. That just isn't the case at all. Unless we trade Payton, we have him on the books here for 3 more years so he still has plenty time to develop.

 

Again, this theory really goes for any PG we bring in whether its Conley or some other guy.

 

 

I don't mind bringing in another pg just don't like the idea of giving max money to an near 30 year old with severely inflamed tendons.

[Bauncey Chillups 288]

Conley isn't the right fit for this team.

 

He is in the sense he will improve us, but he wont be utilized efficiently.

 

With the pace we play at, it is completely different to the type of game he has modeled for himself these bunch of uyears in Memphis playing with Gasol and Randolph.

 

I do think he can adapt and be a solid player here. But he will no way come close to what his peak output in memphis was.

 

He is not a guy who will break down defense individual, he generally needs a screen to break down and penetrate. Elfrid does not.

 

If Elfrid can bring his 3P% up a few more tickets, he will be league average and no one here will be wanting to get rid of Elfrid. He is a guy who can lead a team, both ends of the floor. It's something special we have with him and Victor, it's a shame of course the shooting is not there.

 

I still am a believer that it can be improved, it's been a massive improvement from Elfrid this seaosn on both mid range and three's. He shot 32.6% from three.

 

Take for example, Rondo never exceeded Elfird's percentage this year during his years with Boston and was an all-star caliber player on a championship team getting it done.

 

If elfrid can reach a respectable rate, somewhere close to 36-38% I would say that is one heck of an improvement and I do honestly believe we should be sticking it out with him.

 

Rondo was insanely aggressive during those prime Celtic years. Elfrid only turns it on when he wants to.