jmmagicfan 302 Report post Posted May 20, 2014 That would be because of the The Law of Total Probability. Basically the probability of an event A happening (say the Magic getting the 2nd pick, not 3rd pick for simplicity) is equal to the sum of the probability that A happens conditional on all of the events Bn ( so long as the Bn are pairwise disjoint and form the entire sample space which they do since in this case they are "insert lottery team here" gets the number 1 pick) multiplied by the probability of said Bn happening. In essence the probability of the Magic picking second is the probability of the magic picking second given that the sixers pick first, multiplied by the probability of the sixers picking first added to the probability of the magic picking second given that the Timberwolves pick 1st multiplied by the probability that they pick first etc etc. Obviously picking 3rd adds an extra layer as you have to use picking second as well. In essence it's not the "worst case" that the Suns/Wolves pick 1st/2nd since the probability of that happening is so ridiculously small that it adds very little to our outcome when we add up the numbers in the law of total probability. Now I haven't checked the above numbers but since every source I can find lists them I assume they're correct because someone out there would have worked it out differently otherwise. TL;DR you're wrong. As I said, it becomes an exercise in some pretty crazy mathematics. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JudeMorrigan 3 Report post Posted May 20, 2014 It is wrong because it a meaningless number, based on an impossible supposition. There is absolutely no chance that the 2nd pick will occur without the first pick happening, the balls moving, and the odds changing. Furthermore, it lists our odds of winning the 3rd pick as 15.6%; the worst case scenario for our odds is if Phoenix and Minnesota go #1 and #2, as our odds then become 156/989 or 15.774%. So according to the original graphic, our "odds" of winning the third pick is actually less than the worst case scenario?!? Really, does that actually make sense to anyone? Basically what CTMagicUK said, but let me work out the values for the second place team getting the second pick. (It's simpler than the math for ours.) Now, similar to the question you asked about our worst case scenario, you might suggest that the worst case scenario for Philly is that the Suns win the lottery, making their odds 199/995 or 20%, when the probability chart shows 18.8%. The actual odds are calculated by weighting the second pick possibilities by the probably the first pick probabilities. 199/(1000-250) * .250 = 0.066333 199/(1000-156) * .156 = 0.036782 199/(1000-119) * .119 = 0.02688 199/(1000-88) * .088 = 0.019202 199/(1000-63) * .063 = 0.01338 199/(1000-43) * .043 = 0.008941 199/(1000-28) * .028 = 0.005733 199/(1000-17) * .017 = 0.003442 199/(1000-11) * .011 = 0.002213 199/(1000-8) * .008 = 0.001605 199/(1000-7) * .007 = 0.001403 199/(1000-6) * .006 = 0.001201 199/(1000-5) * .005 = 0.001 Sum the probabilities and you get 0.188114. The calculations are similar for the #3 pick. There are just a lot more of them and it would be silly to not use a computer for them. The results seem unintuitive compared with the worst case scenario because the overall odds have to be lower than what the odds would be in any single scenario. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CTMagicUK 1,488 Report post Posted May 20, 2014 As I said, it becomes an exercise in some pretty crazy mathematics. But the math behind it is still 100% correct. So calling the numbers "completely wrong" just because you don't understand the process undergone to obtain those numbers would be ridiculous. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Murphy13 185 Report post Posted May 20, 2014 I have a feeling MIL gets rewarded tonight and we drop out of the top 3 (5th). I don't like it. I need to go have a couple drinks, maybe I'll feel better about things then. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mauro Pedrosa 1,033 Report post Posted May 20, 2014 My gut tells me we'll get the #4 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mauro Pedrosa 1,033 Report post Posted May 20, 2014 Hey guys, since the chat room is not working I created a private chat room somewhere else. No registration needed. I'd appreciate it if someone followed the link as soon as possible to see if it works http://us21.chatzy.com/64462463810922 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
magicblue 315 Report post Posted May 20, 2014 Hey guys, since the chat room is not working I created a private chat room somewhere else. No registration needed. I'd appreciate it if someone followed the link as soon as possible to see if it works http://us21.chatzy.com/64462463810922 Seems to work. Nice job MP! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mauro Pedrosa 1,033 Report post Posted May 20, 2014 Seems to work. Nice job MP! Thanks ! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AddiFB 429 Report post Posted May 20, 2014 We'll draft 5th. It's been my gut feeling over the past few weeks. I'm going with 5th. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
magicblue 315 Report post Posted May 20, 2014 I've been thinking 4 too. The closer we get the less important I think it is to be top 3. I just don't want 6 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mauro Pedrosa 1,033 Report post Posted May 20, 2014 I don't want Smart. I'd take Wiggins/Exum/Embiid/Randle/Parker in that order Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
