2022-2023 Draft Thread

[CTMagicUK 1,491]

To be clear Pelton says he didn't have the data to project Amen and Ausar so they weren't factored into the entire exercise.

[CTMagicUK 1,491]

I'm high on Jordan Walsh if he's on the board at 36 and nice to see Pelton's stats have him top 30. People would hate it because he's a non shooter but his motor is insane, his defense is awesome and he's a terrific offensive rebounder with some passing/ball handling. Just feels like he'll stick.

[ball junkie 277]

The Athletic saying the Pistons want Ausar for anyone that hopes we get one twin 

[Soul Bro 1,422]

2 hours ago, ball junkie said:

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/37847803/nba-draft-2023-breaking-30-best-prospects
Soul …what do you think of Pelton ? …he’s got …

3 Cam Whitmore

4 Taylor Hendricks 

Grady 5 Cason 6 

Whithead 11 …Scoot 13

Black 14 

didn’t rank anyone from OTE

I like his analysis as a reference point, though I think context matters a lot in evaluations. That said, I'd be happy to add Whitmore, Hendricks, Dick or Wallace. As to point guards, I personally like Wallace over Black.

[CTMagicUK 1,491]

Also worth remembering that Kevin Pelton had Paolo Banchero ranked #11 last year. 

[orlandoholic 137]

1 hour ago, ball junkie said:

The Athletic saying the Pistons want Ausar for anyone that hopes we get one twin 

then Cam Whitmore is ours.. 

 

Look either way, we are drafting either Amen, Cam or Ausar at 6. Or we in for the big surprise and Miller drops multiple positions.. 

 

I feel comfy where we at. The good thing for us fans. We can’t be disappointed. It’s kinda like that year we drafted Suggs. It was either Suggs or Kuminga for most i knew. Some, wanted Barnes most. 
 

But we couldn’t have made a mistake. 

[ball junkie 277]

1. Chet Holmgren

Power forward | Gonzaga 
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 1

Consensus: 4.4 WARP

There's no change at the very top of my projections, with Holmgren still the top-rated in both the stats-only version and the consensus projections. Holmgren's versatility stands out. He's the first prospect ever in my database to project to block at least 5% of opponent 2-point attempts and take at least 30% of his own shots from 3-point range. Add in projected 59% accuracy on 2-point attempts and Holmgren figures to make a big impact at both ends even if he's not the kind of dominant creator who usually ranks atop draft boards.
 

2. Jabari Smith

Power forward | Auburn
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 7

Consensus: 3.3 WARP

The one minor concern about Smith as a top prospect is his solid but unspectacular efficiency. Smith's projected .545 true shooting percentage as an NBA rookie is weaker than league average (.566). To become the dominant scorer he's got the potential to be, Smith will have to turn more of his long 2-point attempts (he shot 38.5% on 2s outside 17 feet, per Synergy Sports tracking) into 3s, which he made at a 42% clip -- or an effective field-goal percentage of 63% when accounting for the extra point.

11. Paolo Banchero

Power forward | Duke
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 35

Consensus: 2.1 WARP

While the other two top prospects in this year's rankings are 1-2 overall in the consensus projections, Banchero falls outside the top 10 because of his unspectacular stats-only projection. Banchero wasn't as efficient as Holmgren and Smith. He was more accurate on long 2s than Smith (45%, per Synergy Sports) but not nearly as good from 3-point range (34%). Improvement there will help Banchero become an elite scorer. He could also stand to improve his impact on defense.

1. Victor Wembanyama

Metropolitans 92
F/C
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 4

Consensus: 3.9 WARP

Although the NCAA, G League and OTE prospects have been preparing for the draft for months, Wembanyama played his last game for Metropolitans 92 on Thursday as they lost the series, 3-0, to AS Monaco in the French Pro A league finals.

Wembanyama's stats-only projection is very good -- seventh best among No. 1 picks since 2006 -- but doesn't quite match the "best prospect since LeBron" hype.
 

2. Brandon Miller

Alabama
SF
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 5

Consensus: 3.5 WARP

Miller's season ended on a low note, as he shot 23% on 2s and 16% on 3s in the NCAA tournament. That dropped his projection, but not enough to move him out of the second spot. More broadly, Miller was weirdly ineffective against top nonconference foes, including 0-of-8 shooting in a win at then-No. 1 Houston. At the same time, Miller dominated the SEC, making 60% of his 2s and 38% of his 3s in conference play.

13. Scoot Henderson

G League Ignite
PG
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 33

Consensus: 2.1 WARP
 

Understanding the disconnect between Henderson's middling stats-only projection and the hype around him as a top-two prospect throughout the season will be one of the most important tasks for the teams picking after the San Antonio Spurs later this month. Henderson's per-game stats (16.5 points, 6.5 assists and 5.4 rebounds per game in regular-season play) looked good enough, but they masked a .510 true shooting percentage as compared to a league average of .581.

The improved 3-point shooting that Henderson showcased in a pair of exhibitions against Wembanyama and Metropolitans 92 was nowhere to be found as he shot 28% in regular-season play. It's possible that Henderson was merely limited by injury and hampered by questionable floor spacing (Ignite was dead last in 3s during the regular season). Players like Henderson have tended to beat their stats-only projections.

Still, Henderson's play is worth a deep dive from teams considering using a top-three pick on him.

14. Anthony Black

Arkansas
G
Top 100: No. 8
Stats: No. 18

Consensus: 2.0 WARP

Black and Wallace are an interesting comparison as SEC one-and-done combo guards. Black ranks higher in the top 100, while Wallace has the better stats-only projection. Wallace rated slightly better in college because of superior assist, steal and turnover rates and had strong EYBL stats. Working in Black's favor: his size (6-foot-7) and being a couple months younger than Wallace.

I’ll let you guys draw your own conclusions 

[Jay Magic 1,251]

Woj says at 14.40ish 

" Orlando we don't talk enough about them " 

[CTMagicUK 1,491]

Earlier in the year I envisioned a world where we got both Thompson twins since we seemed like the most reasonable team to make that happen.

If they're both on the board at 6 we could actually probably do that lol. Probably like a 1% chance and everyone would be so mad but it'd be fun as hell.

[CTMagicUK 1,491]

With this thread being 100+ pages long, should we have a new thread on Draft Day so people can follow everything that's commented easier? Or stick with this? 

[Soul Bro 1,422]

2 hours ago, CTMagicUK said:

Earlier in the year I envisioned a world where we got both Thompson twins since we seemed like the most reasonable team to make that happen.

If they're both on the board at 6 we could actually probably do that lol. Probably like a 1% chance and everyone would be so mad but it'd be fun as hell.

Curse you! Lol

[jmmagicfan 302]

5 hours ago, CTMagicUK said:

With this thread being 100+ pages long, should we have a new thread on Draft Day so people can follow everything that's commented easier? Or stick with this? 

I think a separate Draft Day thread would be a great idea!