Fultz4thewin 2,464 Report post Posted April 7, 2019 8 hours ago, MagicOne said: Right now I have our playoff chances at around 38 percent. Everything is stacking up in the Hornets favor. There is a great chance here that they spoil our party. Not trying to be negative and I sure hope I am wrong. But when you look at our remaining 2 games and the Hornets last three it is pretty obvious the way things will probably play out. I think we could be left out along with Miami. If we do miss out what will have cost us was losing those 3 straight games to the Bulls, Cavs, and Knicks. Either way it will have been a tremendous season and plenty to look forward to! Our playoff chances are at like 95% lol Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Just a regular Magic fan 38 Report post Posted April 7, 2019 18 minutes ago, ?4thewin said: Our playoff chances are at like 95% lol That's why I asked if anything has changed. I was a little confused after seeing that 38%. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fultz4thewin 2,464 Report post Posted April 7, 2019 1 hour ago, Barnabas Smith said: That's why I asked if anything has changed. I was a little confused after seeing that 38%. Nothing changed. If you want to come up with your own playoff odds the formula is: (The percentage chance you think we'll win today + the percentage chance you think we'll win Wednesday) + (The percentage chance that you think Charlotte will lose today + the percentage chance you think Charlotte will lose to the Cavs on Tuesday) multiplied by (the percentage chance that you think Miami will lose to Toronto + the percentage chance Miami will lose to Philly + the percentage chance that Miami will lose to Brooklyn) So if you think there's a 30% chance to win today, a 30% chance we beat Charlotte. And only a 20% chance that Miami or Charlotte lose each of their games you'd still end up with a 84% chance at making the playoffs Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Catalina Maria 64 Report post Posted April 7, 2019 It would have to be a perfect storm if we are not to make the playoffs. Any one loss from a competitor team solidifies our position and any one win from us solidifies our spot. Mere blind chance alone: 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/32 chance we do not make it judging merely by the next game. It's even lower if you factor the following game. And that's at sheer blind chance. I think we are currently better than Boston as constructed. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fultz4thewin 2,464 Report post Posted April 7, 2019 16 minutes ago, Catalina Maria said: It would have to be a perfect storm if we are not to make the playoffs. Any one loss from a competitor team solidifies our position and any one win from us solidifies our spot. Mere blind chance alone: 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/32 chance we do not make it judging merely by the next game. It's even lower if you factor the following game. And that's at sheer blind chance. I think we are currently better than Boston as constructed. That math is incorrect. If you assume every game is a coin flip it's (1/2 + 1/2) + ((1/2 +1/2)x(1/2+1/2+1/2)) which is a 250% likelihood. But just remember we're talking about probability. If you flip a coin 4 times trying to get heads once you'd expect a 200% success rate. But you can still flip tails 4 times in a row Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
magicdoc1 261 Report post Posted April 7, 2019 So if Miami and Charlotte loses today then we should be in no matter if we go 0-2. Correct? As we hold the tiebreaker with Miami. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
magicblue 315 Report post Posted April 7, 2019 18 minutes ago, magicdoc1 said: So if Miami and Charlotte loses today then we should be in no matter if we go 0-2. Correct? As we hold the tiebreaker with Miami. Yes Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Just a regular Magic fan 38 Report post Posted April 7, 2019 Nice! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Imago 17 Report post Posted April 7, 2019 Super pumped for today's game.. A shame Boston is still fighting for that 4th spot. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Magicfan1987 266 Report post Posted April 7, 2019 Boston and Philly are dysfunctional, Milwaukee and Orlando have the brightest future moving forward, pur front office are magicians. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Magicfan1987 266 Report post Posted April 7, 2019 We have the 2nd best record in the east over the last two months going 18-8 only the 19-8 Bucks have a better record than us and that's to be expected because ya know John Hammond.. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
All Eyes On Me 1,218 Report post Posted April 7, 2019 Huge day. 30 of the 32 teams in action (all but the 76ers and Bulls)!! Games that affect us schedule: 12:00 pm on NBTV - Heat at Raptors - The Heat can’t catch us if they lose and are all but eliminated from playoff contention. 4:00 pm on LP if you got it - Hornets at Pistons - if the Pistons win, they clinch a playoff berth and eliminate the Hornets from playoff contention. 5:00 pm on LP if you got it - Nets at Pacers - if the Nets win, they clinch a playoff berth and lock Indiana in to the 5 seed in the East. 7:30 pm on FSFL - Magic at Celtics - if we win, we clinch a playoff berth. Let’s get it! There’s also a chance we have a spot clinched before our game even starts tonight, if the Heat and Hornets both lose today, we’re in! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
