2016 Off-Season Thread

[Mack1085 57]

Realize this is a new cap landscape, but the guys making the most money on the team tend to find themselves starting.

 

(Deserved or not).

 

You've got correlation but not causation. Players don't start because they make the most money. Players start because they are the best players and as the best players they are therefore paid the most money. However, when the cap increase drastically overnight and most players are locked into contracts signed under a lesser cap (or a rookie deal), you're going to get some lower paid players starting over higher paid new contract players.

 

With all that said, I don't have a clue who will be starting. Except Ibaka. He's the only person I'm 100% confident about.

[jrjr1229 9]

You've got correlation but not causation. Players don't start because they make the most money. Players start because they are the best players and as the best players they are therefore paid the most money. However, when the cap increase drastically overnight and most players are locked into contracts signed under a lesser cap (or a rookie deal), you're going to get some lower paid players starting over higher paid new contract players.

 

With all that said, I don't have a clue who will be starting. Except Ibaka. He's the only person I'm 100% confident about.

 

I am sure Evan and Payton and Vuc will

[Franchero MVP 391]

With all that said, I don't have a clue who will be starting. Except Ibaka. He's the only person I'm 100% confident about.

 

Agreed. I don't know who is starting for sure at the C position but to use money as a reason is illogical.

[Miller4Prez66 545]

It isn't about who makes the most money starts, it's that there is no way the Magic would prioritize and spend so much on Biyombo if they envision him as a backup. It's obvious that Vogel is prioritizing interior defense and saw that Vucevic is absolutely terrible at it and wanted to upgrade. I know Nik is a popular player around these parts, but be prepared to see him in another uniform soon. I'm completely fine with it too, I've always been open to dealing him at the right price and now that we have a legit starting center to replace him it makes that so much easier.

[Franchero MVP 391]

Honestly, Augustin was looking towards possibly falling completely out of the league until his solid stint in Denver after the trade deadline. I like his shooting but it wouldn't shock me if Watson stole some minutes. Especially since Vogel already knows him.

 

I can't see how you can trash the Jeff Green deal when it's only one year. Even if he plays like trash, he's 15 million expiring at the deadline.

 

Did you see what other legit backup centers are getting in the market? Could that explain why a legit backup (which is a need in Vogels system) is getting paid big money right now?

 

I'm not saying Vuc is staying forever. But if Vuc is traded and we don't get someone who is very potentially an AS this year then I would be disappointed in Rob.

[Franchero MVP 391]

I actually think that we're keeping Vuc till, at the most, the trade deadline. If Payton falls flat again, they'll be packaged for a PG or an SF. Like I said, unless an AS calibur player becomes available this summer. Butler and Hayward are names still going around, but with no legit source.

 

Until then, we're gonna keep him and use him for now.

[magicjed23 12]

I don't think Rob will trade Vucevic. Nobody here has ever predicted a Hennigan move. Maybe people wishing for some lesser player they overrate and after several chances we eventually get that player, like Biyombo and Watson people say they called it, but those aren't predictions. If you think that it was clear we would trade Victor, it really wasn't at all because he has improved every year even if he isn't an All-Star. You could say that we wondered if Payton and Victor were a good fit together. And some might have decided that Fournier was more impressive than Vic because he had some impressive offensive games this season, but most smart fans expected Fournier to get more, but few ever suggested Oladipo would be less valued and be replaced by Evan. I think he might get an offer after Durant chooses a team, but the way it sounds, teams think they still can get him. Remember no deals are official, but at $17 million Fournier is a steal.

 

It is becoming very obvious that Rob views 3 players as mainstays: Payton, Fournier, and Vucevic. Mario and Gordon are very high potential and if either becomes a star or close enough, then Rob was reasonably successful at worst. But, even though we thought we would see more offense from Hezonja, Skiles treated him like it was boot camp and went from being tempted to start him to basically not letting him learn until playoffs became a long shot. Make no mistake about it, every team wants him, but they just want him free essentially. Harris was one of Robs guys, but after Harris didn't show improvements and to try and appease Skiles and Martins, Rob reluctantly traded for what he could at the time.

 

As for free agency, Rob thought because Milsap interviewed that others would too. But, we didn't go after anyone either because Henny keeps it hush hush when most players want their name mentioned to drum up attention. I think he felt he made an amazing trade for Ibaka, when it's just a very risky trade. He remembers the extra raw Ibaka that was only going uphill in Rob's OKC days. Question is which Ibaka are we getting ? Bad knees or first team defense Serge? But he feels that was the big "free agent" so to speak and won the summer. Or he just gave up because nobody has really moved or left their current team. Super teams are dead because it is like buying a ring and those team don't get the same glory because they are expected to win.

 

C- Vucevic will be starting (unless something big happens).Biyombo and Dedmon back up. Vuc is more likely to be traded to help acquire a star next summer and allow us to keep Ibaka if he has a great year

 

PF- Ibaka will start at 4 for sure and will chase C's and PF's as Vuc can't. Vucevic will clog the lane on defense and when his man gets the ball Ibaka will be looking for blocks and weakside rebounds. Same thing when Biyombo comes off the bench, except he assumes Ibaka's role. Smith backup.

 

SF- Aaron Gordon starts at 3 and will be pushed by Jeff Green and possibly Hezonja. Green is aggressive offense and what we need from Hezonja and Gordon, hope is that makes the young guys, who Rob sees as the future if either develop the way we hope. Marble is insurance and garbage time unless injuries force us to use him.

 

SG- Fournier is the obvious SG starter who will be spelled by Hezonja , and Meeks to a lesser extent.

 

PG- Payton starts and if he is off, Augustin gets lots of time. Watson is the defensive option Hezonja gets used for stretches at point-forward.

 

Bench- Green becomes a 6th man type and battles Hezonja for minutes at 3. We will look to keep Dedmon and Smith. Watson is a wait and see guy and Shabazz is cut or D-league. Marble makes the team as the last player. Zimmerman is D-league unless Dedmon is offered too much (Dedmon becomes a force this year) or Smith goes.

 

Small ball as needed. Ibaka, Gordon, Hezonja/Green, Fournier/Meeks, Payton/Augustin (Watson for defense at 1 or 2.)

 

The offense will be run through Vucevic because he is a solid 18-20ppg and best offensive player (Fournier can't create unless his counterpart is slower or weaker than him but he does not create offense, this is our Achilles heel this year, creating when Vucevic is off his game or a defense buckles down and will get us beat in the playoffs, we need this hole and to convince a star that a capable star will solve and take the offensive reigns from Vucevic) Fournier will be option 2a, Ibaka 2b. Gordon gets the garbage still. Bench will be ran through Green and later Hezonja, and swing the ball to the open guy for 3's and alley-oops for our 3 athletic bigs, and Green, and Hezonja.

 

If we get reasonable improvements for Aaron and Mario, Ibaka returns to previous form, we get point guard consistency, Evan and Nik improve slightly, and players play their roles we have a playoff team, how high depends on cohesive play. And great defense inside.

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Please post what percentage you think the following occur. Just for fun.

Chance we make playoffs: 55%.

Chance at 10 game improvement: 55%

Chance at utter collapse or failure: 45%

Fournier gets 20 ppg: 55%

Vogel is Coach of the Year: 30%

Payton is Most Improved: 70%

The 6th Man is a Magic player: 50%

We have a player in All-Star game: 30%

Air Gordon gets his revenge in dunk contest: 100%

Change at 2017 free agent: 35%

Gordon or Hezonja becomes a star in 2-3 years: 60%

Chance Ibaka is not declining permanently: 40%

Ibaka has career year: 25%

Chance Ibaka re-signs: 30%

Chance Ibaka is 30+ years old: 85%

Chance Henny is fired if we miss playoffs: 90%

Chance Henny is fired if we make playoffs but strike out in 2017 free agency: 90%

[Miller4Prez66 545]

Did you see what other legit backup centers are getting in the market? Could that explain why a legit backup (which is a need in Vogels system) is getting paid big money right now?

 

I'm not saying Vuc is staying forever. But if Vuc is traded and we don't get someone who is very potentially an AS this year then I would be disappointed in Rob.

 

They aren't being paid what Biyombo is, and honestly I can't see him choosing us if he wasn't told he'd be the starter. I know money talks, but we aren't the only team with money trying to sign guys. I honestly think he chose us because of a nice paycheck, he was told he'd start and because he'd play with Ibaka a fellow countryman.

[Miller4Prez66 545]

I actually think that we're keeping Vuc till, at the most, the trade deadline. If Payton falls flat again, they'll be packaged for a PG or an SF. Like I said, unless an AS calibur player becomes available this summer. Butler and Hayward are names still going around, but with no legit source.

 

Until then, we're gonna keep him and use him for now.

 

I'm not so sure why you're adamant about getting an All Star caliber player in return for a player who is not that.

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

I don't think biyombo starts.

 

But I think he's getting 30 mpg

 

And Vucevic has to be traded. Otherwise Hezonja and Jeff green don't play

[Magicman28 295]

I don't think biyombo starts.

 

But I think he's getting 30 mpg

 

And Vucevic has to be traded. Otherwise Hezonja and Jeff green don't play

 

 

Fournier/Hezonja

AG/Green

Ibaka/AG

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

So ok, it's 12:45am and in doing this off the top of my head. Numbers are not going to be exact.

 

Ibaka 17.7 million cap hold

Biyombo 18

Fournier 15.8

Vucevic 12.3

Augustin 7.1

Gordon 5.5

Hezonja 4.1

Payton 3.3

 

That's 83.8 million

 

Cap of 110

 

 

26.2 in cap space.

 

We'd need to shed 5 million to get to a max contract of the 7-9 year variety, 10 million to get to the 10+ max