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2016 NBA Draft Thread

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Kris Dunn is the same age as Payton and while I don't think he's going to be a bust or anything, I don't see much of a difference between him and a reasonably improved Payton.

 

Demetrius Jackson isn't anything special.

 

Trimble might be worth looking into.

 

Baldwin I don't think will be a good pro at all. Big time struggles against Kentucky in both games don't bode well for his NBA prospects when every guard is that athletic.

 

Ulis is interesting but I'm not sure I'd spend a first round pick on a 5'9 point guard. It's one thing to get these guys on non-guaranteed deals where you can bring them in to camp and see what they can do against NBA guards. It's another thing to commit 2-4 years to a guy who might be unplayable.

 

I think Jamal Murray is the best guard in this class. But as for pure PG's I guess Dunn is the top guy, though I'm not amazed by him. I would actually love to take Ulis in the second if he's there. The size is a concern, his small frame too, but he's worth the risk in the second for sure. He kind of reminds me of Bledsoe some, but than Bledsoe is much bigger so idk. That's a pick I'd be excited about seeing how it works out though.

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I think Jamal Murray is the best guard in this class. But as for pure PG's I guess Dunn is the top guy, though I'm not amazed by him. I would actually love to take Ulis in the second if he's there. The size is a concern, his small frame too, but he's worth the risk in the second for sure. He kind of reminds me of Bledsoe some, but than Bledsoe is much bigger so idk. That's a pick I'd be excited about seeing how it works out though.

 

Maybe the best bet is Murray who isn't really a point guard but can shoot and score.

 

If he's going to take time turning into a point guard isn't this a good situation for him as we can play him next to oladipo, Fournier, and Gordon as a starter along with Watson and Hezonja off of the bench?

 

starters: Murray-Oladipo-Fournier

 

after 6 minutes shift Murray to the 2 and bring in Watson and Hezonja for oladipo and Fournier

 

after 4 minutes bring in Fournier for Murray.

 

After another 2 minutes bring in oladipo for either Watson or Hezonja based on what's working.

 

After 4 minutes bring in Murray for whoever is still in between Watson or hezonja.

 

That'd be a nice rotation.

 

I mean if we need a good shooter at point, maybe bet on the guy who just turned 19 and has hit 52 threes over the last 12 games.

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Also, we've spent years hearing how Doran Lamb, Young, Goodwin, Liggins, miller, Teague, etc were going to be great NBA players and just dealt with bad roles.

 

But all of you Kentucky fans are quiet the one time you have an undervalued, just turned 19, guard averaging (IN CONFERENCE!!!) 22.4 ppg on 48/44/80 shooting and hitting almost 5 threes a game

 

how the hell is this guy not going #2???

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Also, we've spent years hearing how Doran Lamb, Young, Goodwin, Liggins, miller, Teague, etc were going to be great NBA players and just dealt with bad roles.

 

But all of you Kentucky fans are quiet the one time you have an undervalued, just turned 19, guard averaging (IN CONFERENCE!!!) 22.4 ppg on 48/44/80 shooting and hitting almost 5 threes a game

 

how the hell is this guy not going #2???

 

What's his name bro so I can look him up? I haven't watched any college ball yet

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What's his name bro so I can look him up? I haven't watched any college ball yet

 

Jamal Murray.

 

He started off the year playing duke ok but having bad to pedestrian games against New Jersey institute of technology, Wright state, Boston University, Illinois State, Eastern Kentucky, and Arizona State. Had a 33 point game against Ohio State (who is down this year) and then followed it up with a 12 point 7 turnover 21% shooting game against Louisville. So the 2015 calendar year had him averaging something like 16 ppg on 40% shooting. Very ho-hum numbers when you look at the overall schedule.

 

He spent January becoming more efficient but theres really not a standout game. Good numbers, nothing that jumps off the page though.

 

Then something must have clicked.

 

21 against Tennessee, 35 against florida (8 threes), 24 against Georgia (6 threes), 26 @ south Carolina, 28 against Tennessee, 21 against Texas A&M, 23 against Alabama, 33 against Vanderbilt (6 threes), 21 against florida, 22 against LSU, 23 against Alabama, 26 against Georgia, 17 against Texas A&M.

 

That's an impressive stretch. Dude averaged 26 ppg on 51/49/83 shooting. Doesn't do much else, but man...

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Kris Dunn is the same age as Payton and while I don't think he's going to be a bust or anything, I don't see much of a difference between him and a reasonably improved Payton.

 

Not that I necessarily disagree with you on this but in 2012 you could have theoretically said something along those lines about Brandon Knight as an argument not to draft Damian Lillard.

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Not that I necessarily disagree with you on this but in 2012 you could have theoretically said something along those lines about Brandon Knight as an argument not to draft Damian Lillard.

 

sure, I guess it depends on how your scouts feel. If they came out and said Lillard is going to be much better than what we project knight to be after watching him for a year.

 

And maybe that's the case for Dunn. It's not like I've watched 20 providence games this year.

 

However, the scouting reports for dunn and payton sound exactly the same

 

 

 

The two biggest areas of concern surrounding Dunn offensively is his finishing around the basket and extreme turnover rate. Dunn converted an extremely poor 45% of his shots inside the paint in the half-court this season. Despite having ample strength and explosiveness, he shows average touch around the rim when forced to finish over length, and tends to avoid contact at all costs, showing a concerning lack of toughness in the process. Some of this might have to do with amount of time he missed with injuries and concerns about getting hurt again, but this was an issue prior to that as well. To his credit, he has a very nice floater he's developed from the middle of the paint that helps make up for his struggles at the rim to a certain extent.

 

Dunn can be very wild and careless with the ball as well, as he posted the highest turnover rate in our Top-100 prospects (4.8 turnovers per-40, 22.5% TO%), and shows truly baffling decision making at times. Some of this is likely due to his lack of experience playing his first injury-free season in college, but his turnover problems are an issue we've talked about since the very first scouting report we wrote about him back in 2011. He makes some extremely impressive moves with the ball at times, but can get very sloppy with his handle as well.

 

Defensively, Dunn has all the tools you look for in a guard—elite size and length, a great frame, quick hands and feet, and outstanding instincts getting in the passing lanes—resulting in some extremely impressive plays. He forces a ton of turnovers—his 3.2 steals per-40 minutes pace adjusted ranks #1 among Top-100 prospects by a wide margin, and is also a strong rebounder at 6.5 per-40, tied for second best in the Top-100. He's big enough to stay in front of point guards and shooting guards alike at the NBA level, which give his team very nice versatility that is highly coveted these days.

 

With that said, despite the tools and talent, that didn't always result in lockdown defense at the college level. Not particularly sound from a fundamentals standpoint, Dunn tends to play very hunched over on defense, which helps him conserve energy, but neutralizes his quickness to a degree. He shies away from using his body to contain dribble penetration or fight through screens, lacking some of the physicality, grit and toughness you like to see from shutdown defenders. Providence played quite a bit of zone this season, partially to help Dunn save energy for offense and keep him out of foul trouble, so there will be somewhat of a transition for him making his way to the NBA in that regard. Nevertheless, his technique will need improvement, as will his intensity and effort-level.

---------------

 

 

The most glaring is his outside shot, which is simply not a weapon by any means at this stage, as evidenced by his 26% 3-point and 59% free throw percentages. Opposing defenses regularly sag off him significantly daring him to punish them from the outside, which he's unable to do at the moment.

 

He's also not an extraordinary finisher around the basket in the half-court, particularly considering the level of competition he plays at and the physical advantage he regularly enjoys. His lack of strength and avoidance of using his left hand contributes here, but he's also a little bit passive in the way he chooses to attack defenses at times, settling for floaters, not initiating contact, and not looking as fearless as you might hope inside the paint considering his limitations as a shooter. There are some concerns about how much of a scorer in general he might be in the NBA.

 

Payton's lackadaisical approach shows up in his very high turnover rate, which ranks 2rd amongst Top-100 prospect point guards. He gets a little careless with the ball at times, making lazy passes or not protecting the ball effectively, which is somewhat a product of his laid-back demeanor.

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Maybe the best bet is Murray who isn't really a point guard but can shoot and score.

 

If he's going to take time turning into a point guard isn't this a good situation for him as we can play him next to oladipo, Fournier, and Gordon as a starter along with Watson and Hezonja off of the bench?

 

starters: Murray-Oladipo-Fournier

 

after 6 minutes shift Murray to the 2 and bring in Watson and Hezonja for oladipo and Fournier

 

after 4 minutes bring in Fournier for Murray.

 

After another 2 minutes bring in oladipo for either Watson or Hezonja based on what's working.

 

After 4 minutes bring in Murray for whoever is still in between Watson or hezonja.

 

That'd be a nice rotation.

 

I mean if we need a good shooter at point, maybe bet on the guy who just turned 19 and has hit 52 threes over the last 12 games.

 

I"m a big Murray guy. Not sure why he doesn't get more hype. He's kind of why I wanted to lose out so we could snag him around 6-8 if he's there. I got on his bandwagon when Ohio State played them earlier in the year and he lit us up. Ohio State won but he dropped 35 on us. He was unstoppable.

 

I think when it's all said and done he goes top 5 so it won't matter, but I would love him if somehow it happened.

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I have loved Murray since he broke onto the scene in I think it was some kind of USA v World thing. Was basically unknown before that and was actually a backup plan for UK. I think he has everything you look for in a lead ballhandler in today's NBA. His passing is a question, but I think that has more to do with Ulis

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Kevin Pelton projects Brandon Ingram to be the "worst #2 prospect in any draft since 2012" of course Peltons WARP projections in 2014 ranked Marcus Smart as the best prospect in the draft (Also had Jordan Adams, PJ Hairston and McDermott above AG) and from what i understand Pelton doesn't actually watch all that much college ball but sure..

 

Maybe it's just me but I think he's one of the most over rated basketball writers out there.

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Maybe it's just me but I think he's one of the most over rated basketball writers out there.

 

Still ****s me less than Marc "I'll tweet ever possible scenario just in case it ends up happening so I can be the one who broke the story first" Stein.

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Jamal Murray.

 

He started off the year playing duke ok but having bad to pedestrian games against New Jersey institute of technology, Wright state, Boston University, Illinois State, Eastern Kentucky, and Arizona State. Had a 33 point game against Ohio State (who is down this year) and then followed it up with a 12 point 7 turnover 21% shooting game against Louisville. So the 2015 calendar year had him averaging something like 16 ppg on 40% shooting. Very ho-hum numbers when you look at the overall schedule.

 

He spent January becoming more efficient but theres really not a standout game. Good numbers, nothing that jumps off the page though.

 

Then something must have clicked.

 

21 against Tennessee, 35 against florida (8 threes), 24 against Georgia (6 threes), 26 @ south Carolina, 28 against Tennessee, 21 against Texas A&M, 23 against Alabama, 33 against Vanderbilt (6 threes), 21 against florida, 22 against LSU, 23 against Alabama, 26 against Georgia, 17 against Texas A&M.

 

That's an impressive stretch. Dude averaged 26 ppg on 51/49/83 shooting. Doesn't do much else, but man...

 

Thanks

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