The Official 2015-2016 Regular Season Thread

[Odin 137]

Hey I can actually post! Awesome!

 

 

I am struggling to see how anyone can say Randle is better than Gordon. There are very few numbers that back up the "Randle is better" narrative, unless you ignore their entire body of work and just focus on their last match-up, which was one of Randle's best games of the year and one of Aaron Gordon's worst.

 

If we are going to create this narrative that one game proves that one player is better than another, than Aaron Gordon is better than Draymond Green, as he outplayed Green when they faced off.

 

I don't think many of us would argue this is the case. It is just as absurd to make such a case for Randle.

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

I see 104 and 108, but maybe it depends on the site. I also think neither are accurate per prior discussion.

 

basketball reference uses a different calculation than nba.com part of it is basketball reference uses the play by play text which can inflate or deflate the numbers for a variety of reasons. Here's one example of how basketball reference calculates things:

 

Payton commits a shooting foul early in the game. shooter makes one freethrow and then Jennings comes in for Payton (for his first minutes of the game). Shooter hits a second free throw. Before the ball is even inbounded, Jennings is already listed as -1.

 

I started using nba.com because they use the sport vu cameras to calculate these things.

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

The same comparison can't be made between the two young guys, other than Gordon can defend and Randle can score.

 

Post all star game, Randle is averaging 14.2 ppg and Gordon is averaging 13.2 ppg.

 

1 ppg is all it takes to make Randle the scorer and Gordon the "not-scorer"?

[Murphy13 185]

On further review of the stats you've posted, I gave you the benefit of the doubt on using different sites but others you've posted are exactly the same as what I see (ex 57% from 0-3 feet)...while Drating clearly shows 108 vs 104. I know you aren't pulling a catman are you? FWIW, you incredulously said that I would just shrug off further fg%'s bc Randle's a big, though I said that 3's weren't a part of either their games, but their 3pt % is 29% vs 30%. Let's be real, neither of them are shooters.

 

Also FWIW, Randle has taken 50% more shots than Gordon. Gordon's numbers are based on a small sample size and more likely to be inaccurate.

 

EDIT: we appear to be having two conversations, with each lagging the other. You are using stats from more than one site, gotcha.

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

On further review of the stats you've posted, I gave you the benefit of the doubt on using different sites but others you've posted are exactly the same as what I see (ex 57% from 0-3 feet)...while Drating clearly shows 108 vs 104. I know you aren't pulling a catman are you? FWIW, you incredulously said that I would just shrug off further fg%'s bc Randle's a big, though I said that 3's weren't a part of either their games, but their 3pt % is 29% vs 30%. Let's be real, neither of them are shooters.

 

Also FWIW, Randle has taken 50% more shots than Gordon. Gordon's numbers are based on a small sample size and more likely to be inaccurate.

 

You don't get to use the sample size argument on Gordon's 439 shot attempts. That's sufficiently large enough to use.

[Murphy13 185]

Post all star game, Randle is averaging 14.2 ppg and Gordon is averaging 13.2 ppg.

 

1 ppg is all it takes to make Randle the scorer and Gordon the "not-scorer"?

 

There are so many dynamics at play in such a small sample size. Randle has been having Kobe and BScott issues-like Payton...Gordon's been getting a lot of garbage time opportunities. A small stretch like this does not overrule the big picture. There will be stretches where any player can do something better than another player that tends to be better at that something. You know this, you would not let that fly if it were reversed.

[Murphy13 185]

You don't get to use the sample size argument on Gordon's 439 shot attempts. That's sufficiently large enough to use.

 

Not compared to Randles 687. There is definitely a sample size argument, that's only 6 shots a game...how many of those come off offensive rebounds? half? Randle is very much so a primary focus of the other team's better defender, for example when the Magic play against them he gets Gordon. Gordon is left alone on offense. You're really clutching at straws here.

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

On further review of the stats you've posted, I gave you the benefit of the doubt on using different sites but others you've posted are exactly the same as what I see (ex 57% from 0-3 feet)...while Drating clearly shows 108 vs 104. I know you aren't pulling a catman are you? FWIW, you incredulously said that I would just shrug off further fg%'s bc Randle's a big, though I said that 3's weren't a part of either their games, but their 3pt % is 29% vs 30%. Let's be real, neither of them are shooters.

 

Also FWIW, Randle has taken 50% more shots than Gordon. Gordon's numbers are based on a small sample size and more likely to be inaccurate.

 

EDIT: we appear to be having two conversations, with each lagging the other. You are using stats from more than one site, gotcha.

 

I use two different sites because the normal counting numbers (fg%, ppg, rebounds are the same on both sites). The only thing different is offensive/defensive rating.

 

I like nba.com because it makes more sense with 100 being the standard benchmark for good/bad. You get a layup and score. your offensive rating is 200. you shoot a jumpshot and miss, your offensive rating is 100. 2 points, 2 possessions. 1 point per possession. 100 points per 100 possessions.

 

here's basketball references calculations:

 

•ScPoss = (FG_Part + AST_Part + FT_Part) * (1 - (Team_ORB / Team_Scoring_Poss) * Team_ORB_Weight * Team_Play%) + ORB_Part

 

where:

•FG_Part = FGM * (1 - 0.5 * ((PTS - FTM) / (2 * FGA)) * qAST)

•qAST = ((MP / (Team_MP / 5)) * (1.14 * ((Team_AST - AST) / Team_FGM))) + ((((Team_AST / Team_MP) * MP * 5 - AST) / ((Team_FGM / Team_MP) * MP * 5 - FGM)) * (1 - (MP / (Team_MP / 5))))

•AST_Part = 0.5 * (((Team_PTS - Team_FTM) - (PTS - FTM)) / (2 * (Team_FGA - FGA))) * AST

•FT_Part = (1-(1-(FTM/FTA))^2)*0.4*FTA

•Team_Scoring_Poss = Team_FGM + (1 - (1 - (Team_FTM / Team_FTA))^2) * Team_FTA * 0.4

•Team_ORB_Weight = ((1 - Team_ORB%) * Team_Play%) / ((1 - Team_ORB%) * Team_Play% + Team_ORB% * (1 - Team_Play%))

•Team_ORB% = Team_ORB / (Team_ORB + (Opponent_TRB - Opponent_ORB))

•Team_Play% = Team_Scoring_Poss / (Team_FGA + Team_FTA * 0.4 + Team_TOV)

•ORB_Part = ORB * Team_ORB_Weight * Team_Play%

 

Missed FG and Missed FT Possessions are calculated as follows:

•FGxPoss = (FGA - FGM) * (1 - 1.07 * Team_ORB%)

•FTxPoss = ((1 - (FTM / FTA))^2) * 0.4 * FTA

 

Total Possessions are then computed like so:

•TotPoss = ScPoss + FGxPoss + FTxPoss + TOV

 

Now, Individual Points Produced must also be calculated:

•PProd = (PProd_FG_Part + PProd_AST_Part + FTM) * (1 - (Team_ORB / Team_Scoring_Poss) * Team_ORB_Weight * Team_Play%) + PProd_ORB_Part

 

where:

•PProd_FG_Part = 2 * (FGM + 0.5 * 3PM) * (1 - 0.5 * ((PTS - FTM) / (2 * FGA)) * qAST)

•PProd_AST_Part = 2 * ((Team_FGM - FGM + 0.5 * (Team_3PM - 3PM)) / (Team_FGM - FGM)) * 0.5 * (((Team_PTS - Team_FTM) - (PTS - FTM)) / (2 * (Team_FGA - FGA))) * AST

•PProd_ORB_Part = ORB * Team_ORB_Weight * Team_Play% * (Team_PTS / (Team_FGM + (1 - (1 - (Team_FTM / Team_FTA))^2) * 0.4 * Team_FTA))

 

After all of that, we can finally calculate the player's individual Offensive Rating:

•ORtg = 100 * (PProd / TotPoss)

 

As a side note, we can also calculate what Oliver calls Floor Percentage, which answers the question, "What percentage of the time that a player wants to score does he actually score?":

•Floor% = ScPoss / TotPoss

 

 

too much noise.

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

Not compared to Randles 687. There is definitely a sample size argument, that's only 6 shots a game...how many of those come off offensive rebounds? half? Randle is very much so a primary focus of the other team's better defender, for example when the Magic play against them he gets Gordon. Gordon is left alone on offense. You're really clutching at straws here.

 

yes. randle is totally getting the team's better defender.

 

Not Clarkson

Not Russell

Not Kobe

Not Lou Williams

 

 

Randle...

[Catalina Maria 64]

I think a time will come when Gordon will be a 1st or 2nd option on offense for this team. If he gets that 3 point ball going consistently, he'll be so deadly.

[Soul Bro 1,422]

I like Gordon and Randle

[HeHateMe 697]

Not compared to Randles 687. There is definitely a sample size argument, that's only 6 shots a game...how many of those come off offensive rebounds? half? Randle is very much so a primary focus of the other team's better defender, for example when the Magic play against them he gets Gordon. Gordon is left alone on offense. You're really clutching at straws here.

 

AG has no go to offense at all yet. Randle is polished. People say "When AG gets a more consistent shot, he will be unstoppable", well that's funny because you could literally say the exact same thing about Randle, he just needs a mid-range.

 

I think a time will come when Gordon will be a 1st or 2nd option on offense for this team. If he gets that 3 point ball going consistently, he'll be so deadly.

 

Maybe, but that is incredibly far off. AG is still very raw and most all of his points come on hustle baskets around the rim or wide open looks because teams let him shoot. If he is the first option on our team anytime soon I'll assume we started another rebuild.

 

I like Gordon and Randle