Official 2015 Offseason Thread

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

Respectable. You could argue CJ was the best free agent PG out there. I'm fine with that money. CJ gives everything I wanted in a backup. Vet, can drain 3's, can defend, can push the tempo.

 

It's funny that we get him 6 years after we first wanted him. Can't believe he's already 31

[Bauncey Chillups 288]

Watson had by far the best season of his career last year--15.1 PER, .135 WS/48 (!), TS% 58.

[HeHateMe 697]

It's funny that we get him 6 years after we first wanted him. Can't believe he's already 31

 

Better late than never right? :D

 

I asked in the Summer League thread but is anyone trying to hit the chat room up at 11? Or is that to nerd of me?

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

Better late than never right? :D/>

 

I asked in the Summer League thread but is anyone trying to hit the chat room up at 11? Or is that to nerd of me?

 

For the jv team? That might be too much.

[heisenberg 18]

Watson was actually one of my top choices for FA points..good fit imo.

 

Now to get a PF

[HeHateMe 697]

For the jv team? That might be too much.

[/quote

 

It's the JV team first? Damn I completely botched that one. Yea never mind I had my teams mixed up.

[Jay Magic 1,247]

Tobias Harris had no shortage of suitors including Boston Celtics, Detroit Pistons, New Orleans, Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings

[HeHateMe 697]

Tobias Harris had no shortage of suitors including Boston Celtics, Detroit Pistons, New Orleans, Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings

 

Yea, from Kyler.

 

Did anyone else see this tweet from him?

 

"I was asleep, that's why I missed breaking the Tobias deal"

 

Does that even make sense to anyone? So he finally for the first time in his career can break a big signing before anyone else, but he was asleep? So he knew Harris had agreed to a deal but he said "Ehhh I don't wanna break this, I'm going to sleep". That guy.

[Magicman28 295]

 

Ok, I'm feeling nice here, so I'm going to explain this. There are four things the two of you clearly don't understand, or are unwilling to understand, that you need to:

 

 

2. Contracts matter: any "Would you trade player X for player Y, straight up?" has to include what those two players are getting paid, since any player's value is going to be determined by two things, what they do and how much it costs for them to do it, and salary is literally one of those two things. And while Favors is not on a bad contract by any stretch, there's really nothing wrong with saying you'd rather not pay Favors 34 million over the next 3 years when you can pay Gordon 14 for the same time period, AND still retain player-control of Gordon at the end of his deal.

 

3. I'm not really sure why anyone would feel a need to make an apples to apples comparison between Gordon and Favors anyway, when one was a 19 year old rookie who was injured and the other was a 23 year old 5th year player who wasn't. If anything, Favors is a good primer as to why we SHOULDN'T give up on Gordon immediately, since the stats Favors put up as a 19 year old rookie are intensely mediocre, he wasn't(and still isn't) as good a defensive player as Gordon was last year, and he fouled just all the goddamned time.

 

4. Opponents' FG% at the rim is a nonsense stat, and rim protection has become a massively overrated concept, purely on the basis that one company started tracking it and that people find it hard to do math.

 

The entire NBA averaged less than 29% of their shots within 3' of the rim last season. So right away, individual "Rim protection" is useless on AT LEAST 71% of all FGAs, depending on where you choose to start counting things as being "at the rim". So right away, you're talking about a stat that only matters on roughly 24 FGAs per game for the average team at most(24.23268292682927, to be more precise).

 

But then you have to address the issues of "rim protectors don't play 48mpg" and "proper defensive rotations mean that any given rim protector won't be in position to challenge even 2/3 of the shots they're in the game for, let alone all of them". And even Nylon Calculus, the company that insists that this stat is valuable(since it's what they sell), agrees. Last year, Andrew Bogut lead the entire NBA in "percentage of shots challenged at the rim while he was in the game" at 61%. So math says that last year, the guy who challenged a greater percentage of shots than ANYONE ELSE IN THE NBA, assuming he'd kept pace throughout the game and played 48 minutes a game, would have challenged 14.78 shots per game.

 

Of course, Bogut DIDN'T play 48mpg; he played 23.6mpg. So if we THEN assume that shots-at-the-rim are distributed evenly throughout the game(and this is something that Nylon doesn't even track), you're left having to multiply 14.78 by 23.6/48, which equals 7.27 shots per game.

 

So lets be generous, and take that 7.27 and inexplicably round it up to 8. Would you like to know the difference between a FG% of 41.4%(Bogut's rate, 3rd in the NBA) versus a rate widely considered to be horrific of 51.9%(Channing Frye) on 8 FGAs per game is? It's the difference between 6.624ppg and 8.304ppg.

 

So when you actually do the math, the difference between a "great" rim protector and a terrible one, assuming comparable minutes and comparable opportunities to challenge shots(which, as an aside, has a lot more to do with defensive scheme and teammates than it does individual defensive prowess in most cases) is almost 1 FG per game.

 

Even Nylon Calculus's own numbers, which seemed to have been arrived at by magic in some cases, agree: they have a calculation called "points saved per game", and while their calculations don't seem to jive with any possible math I can think of, even they only list a total of a whopping 12 players in the NBA whose "rim protection" was worth more than a point a game last season.

 

And that ultimately gets back to a point I've been making since Marcus Camby stole a DPOY award from Tim Duncan: stop talking about rim protection like it matters; talk about "defense" instead. No one would ever say someone was a good shooter just because they shot well within 3 feet of the rim, and ignore everything else on the court. Why do the same on defense?

 

I don't get it.

 

Excellent post and this is all I want from Harris. I don't care about some high flyer who blocks 1-2 shots a game. I just want Tobias to defend and rebound. Drop 20+ all you want just take some of that energy and put it on the defensive side and make good offensive decisions. He does that (along with everyone else), I'm happy.

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

Yea, from Kyler.

 

Did anyone else see this tweet from him?

 

"I was asleep, that's why I missed breaking the Tobias deal"

 

Does that even make sense to anyone? So he finally for the first time in his career can break a big signing before anyone else, but he was asleep? So he knew Harris had agreed to a deal but he said "Ehhh I don't wanna break this, I'm going to sleep". That guy.

 

Yeah. He totally overestimates his relationship with players

[magicblue 315]

Respectable. You could argue CJ was the best free agent PG out there. I'm fine with that money. CJ gives everything I wanted in a backup. Vet, can drain 3's, can defend, can push the tempo.

 

And now I'm agreeing with you, weird. Really good value signing, great job Henny! Pretty much off-sets the $1-2M per most feel we over paid for Harris. Now sign a solid veteran big and let's call it a summer.

[HeHateMe 697]

Yeah. He totally overestimates his relationship with players

 

That's like my biggest beef with him. He always makes it seem like these players are his "boys" and that's why we should trust what he says.