MVP/Playoff chat with John Hollinger

[BMP 424]

1. I never went through an American education system, I'm born and raised in the UK.

 

2. An average is a very flawed statistic since it does not tell anything else about the data. You did realise that right?

 

Let me ask you this.

 

Why does the all star three point contest hardly ever reflect their "true" percentage of shots they would make in real life?

 

Or if you have a player who is "hot", you would go to them for a bucket when you needed it, even though on average they may have a worse FG%?

 

Or if why some players perform better in clutch situations, even though on average, they shouldn't perform any differently?

 

 

[Franchero MVP 391]

Let me ask you this.

 

Why does the all star three point contest hardly ever reflect their "true" percentage of shots they would make in real life?

 

Or if you have a player who is "hot", you would go to them for a bucket when you needed it, even though on average they may have a worse FG%?

 

Or if why some players perform better in clutch situations, even though on average, they shouldn't perform any differently?

 

Because no one here is a fortune teller, you use the law of averages to tell you whats more LIKELY to happen. Every rule has EXCEPTIONS; but because exceptions are out of the norm, you don't expect them to happen very often and therefore they are useless to include in any kind of debate.

 

edit: What are we arguing about again? :svgsad:

[Secretly Space Jesus 670]

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1. I never went through an American education system, I'm born and raised in the UK.

 

Like Xenu cares.

 

2. An average is a very flawed statistic since it does not tell anything else about the data. You did realise that right?

 

That's like saying "color" is a flawed description of an object because it doesn't tell you its size. Are you really going to criticize a data metric for only dealing with the one thing it's supposed to? Do you get mad when people describe your eye color because it doesn't include your favorite ice cream flavor?

 

Let me ask you this.

 

Why does the all star three point contest hardly ever reflect their "true" percentage of shots they would make in real life?

 

Because in games, NBA players rarely shoot 3pt shots in sets of 25, they rarely shoot them at that speed, and they rarely shoot them with no other players on the court.

 

Of course, none of those things apply to the difference between shooting a free throw in a game and shooting a free throw in a game.

 

Or if you have a player who is "hot", you would go to them for a bucket when you needed it, even though on average they may have a worse FG%?

 

Answering that question in a vacuum? Superstition. A player making 5 baskets in a row doesn't make them more or likely to make the 6th one. That players, fans, coaches, or anyone else believe it to be true doesn't mean it is, any more than a gambler rolling dice who just won 5 rolls in a row is guaranteed to win #6.

 

Or if why some players perform better in clutch situations, even though on average, they shouldn't perform any differently?

 

Most players, and Xenu means this sincerely, perform awful by nearly any metric in clutch situations, except that they score a lot on volume.

 

Kobe Bryant: 40.9% shooting while taking 38.4 FGAs per 48minutes of clutch time.

 

Derrick Rose: 39.5% shooting on 37.5 FGAs per 48.

 

The difference is that these players tend to simply take a much higher number of shots in that time frame than they do normally, so their "clutch scoring" is massively inflated by shot volume, not accuracy.

 

So to answer your question, Xenu would say that he has no reason to explain it, since it's untrue, just as Xenu has no reason to explain why the moon of Teegeeack is made out of cheese.

 

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[Berto 338]

Do you get mad when people describe your eye color because it doesn't include your favorite ice cream flavor?

 

Very much so.

[Secretly Space Jesus 670]

Very much so.

 

 

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Xenu does as well.

 

Kberto, lets never stop being friends.

 

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[Sabian Jackson 0]

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Like Xenu cares.

 

 

 

That's like saying "color" is a flawed description of an object because it doesn't tell you its size. Are you really going to criticize a data metric for only dealing with the one thing it's supposed to? Do you get mad when people describe your eye color because it doesn't include your favorite ice cream flavor?

 

 

 

Because in games, NBA players rarely shoot 3pt shots in sets of 25, they rarely shoot them at that speed, and they rarely shoot them with no other players on the court.

 

Of course, none of those things apply to the difference between shooting a free throw in a game and shooting a free throw in a game.

 

 

 

Answering that question in a vacuum? Superstition. A player making 5 baskets in a row doesn't make them more or likely to make the 6th one. That players, fans, coaches, or anyone else believe it to be true doesn't mean it is, any more than a gambler rolling dice who just won 5 rolls in a row is guaranteed to win #6.

 

 

 

Most players, and Xenu means this sincerely, perform awful by nearly any metric in clutch situations, except that they score a lot on volume.

 

Kobe Bryant: 40.9% shooting while taking 38.4 FGAs per 48minutes of clutch time.

 

Derrick Rose: 39.5% shooting on 37.5 FGAs per 48.

 

The difference is that these players tend to simply take a much higher number of shots in that time frame than they do normally, so their "clutch scoring" is massively inflated by shot volume, not accuracy.

 

So to answer your question, Xenu would say that he has no reason to explain it, since it's untrue, just as Xenu has no reason to explain why the moon of Teegeeack is made out of cheese.

 

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I think in a bizarre sort of way, you have in essence, proved the point I'm making. Using the average, or to be more accurate, the mean, to dictate how a player performs on the "next" play/shot/whatever is flawed because you're basing it on statistics of situations that hold no relevance to this next one.

 

Or to put it differently, on a case to case basis, players perform differently to the average. Which is what I was arguing when I pointed out that in over half the games this year, Howard hasn't been near to his average.

[Marc Acres 3:16 418]

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Like Xenu cares.

 

 

 

That's like saying "color" is a flawed description of an object because it doesn't tell you its size. Are you really going to criticize a data metric for only dealing with the one thing it's supposed to? Do you get mad when people describe your eye color because it doesn't include your favorite ice cream flavor?

 

 

 

Because in games, NBA players rarely shoot 3pt shots in sets of 25, they rarely shoot them at that speed, and they rarely shoot them with no other players on the court.

 

Of course, none of those things apply to the difference between shooting a free throw in a game and shooting a free throw in a game.

 

 

 

Answering that question in a vacuum? Superstition. A player making 5 baskets in a row doesn't make them more or likely to make the 6th one. That players, fans, coaches, or anyone else believe it to be true doesn't mean it is, any more than a gambler rolling dice who just won 5 rolls in a row is guaranteed to win #6.

 

 

 

Most players, and Xenu means this sincerely, perform awful by nearly any metric in clutch situations, except that they score a lot on volume.

 

Kobe Bryant: 40.9% shooting while taking 38.4 FGAs per 48minutes of clutch time.

 

Derrick Rose: 39.5% shooting on 37.5 FGAs per 48.

 

The difference is that these players tend to simply take a much higher number of shots in that time frame than they do normally, so their "clutch scoring" is massively inflated by shot volume, not accuracy.

 

So to answer your question, Xenu would say that he has no reason to explain it, since it's untrue, just as Xenu has no reason to explain why the moon of Teegeeack is made out of cheese.

 

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This post contains some of the funniest things ever said on this forum.

[Secretly Space Jesus 670]

I think in a bizarre sort of way, you have in essence, proved the point I'm making. Using the average, or to be more accurate, the mean, to dictate how a player performs on the "next" play/shot/whatever is flawed because you're basing it on statistics of situations that hold no relevance to this next one.

 

Or to put it differently, on a case to case basis, players perform differently to the average. Which is what I was arguing when I pointed out that in over half the games this year, Howard hasn't been near to his average.

 

 

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If that were really the point you were making, you'd argue we should disregard the percentage completely, since there is no way to predict a 30% FT shooter won't suddenly make 20 in a row.

 

If you want to disregard averages because they aren't perfectly predictive, then you must disregard the summation of all knowledge because nothing is perfectly predictive.

 

If you REALLY want to argue that, fine, but then the rest of your argument makes no sense.

 

Derrick Rose is a better FT shooter than Dwight Howard? Irrelevant, since averages mean nothing in an individual situation.

 

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[Secretly Space Jesus 670]

Erm...

 

If the Bulls offensive consisted of just DRose shooting 2 FTA every possession, then they would be up at 1.716.

 

If the Heats offensive consisted of either Wade or James shooting 2 FTA every posession, then they would be at 1.5 or 1.518.

 

If the Thunders offensive consisted of either Durant or Westbrook shooting 2 FTA every possession, then they would be at 1.758 or 1.678.

 

See? I can do that too.

 

It doesn't make him as effective as a go to guy in end games if he can't shoot free throws as well as other players, if we're looking purely on FTs. How is this difficult?

 

 

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The issue you seem unable or unwilling to grasp is that no one, anywhere is arguing that teams can beat a team by simply fouling Rose, Wade, James, Durant or Westbrook and making them shoot 2 FTs every possession. People are suggesting, and you seem to be agreeing, that this is the case when it comes to Dwight Howard.

 

It isn't. In fact, if your team needs points in the clutch, you'll score far more efficiently and effectively with Dwight shooting free throws than with any of the aforementioned players doing pretty much anything EXCEPT shooting free throws.

 

Derrick Rose in the clutch if he's not shooting FTs? You're looking at .76682 points per possession.

 

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[Sabian Jackson 0]

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The issue you seem unable or unwilling to grasp is that no one, anywhere is arguing that teams can beat a team by simply fouling Rose, Wade, James, Durant or Westbrook and making them shoot 2 FTs every possession. People are suggesting, and you seem to be agreeing, that this is the case when it comes to Dwight Howard.

 

It isn't. In fact, if your team needs points in the clutch, you'll score far more efficiently and effectively with Dwight shooting free throws than with any of the aforementioned players doing pretty much anything EXCEPT shooting free throws.

 

Derrick Rose in the clutch if he's not shooting FTs? You're looking at .76682 points per possession.

 

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So, what you're saying is that if we went to Howard every single possession in the clutch, we would pretty much never lose a close game?

[Secretly Space Jesus 670]

So, what you're saying is that if we went to Howard every single possession in the clutch, we would pretty much never lose a close game?

 

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Your strawmen are as adorable as they are transparent and pathetic.

 

No, what Xenu is saying is that the most effective, efficient thing the Orlando offense can do in clutch situations is give the ball to their best player, and that the standard argument of "they can just foul him and make him shoot free throws" is stupid and wrong, since Howard shooting free throws is more efficient than any other player on our team doing anything.

 

You really should have realized you were on the wrong side of this argument when you started arguing against "Give the ball to our best player".

 

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[VCplusD12 91]

We only have a 5% chance of making the Finals?

 

John, U mad?