MVP/Playoff chat with John Hollinger

[Chase 209]

Marian (Berlin)

 

 

Has D. Howard really a chance to become the MVP?

 

John Hollinger

 

None. Rose is going to win MVP, as much as people like me might think it's the wrong choice. The real impact of the debate we've had this year, if any, is going to come several years down the road as more empirical ways of looking at award votes sink in.

 

 

 

 

Adnan (Chicago)

 

 

Should Howard's suspensions have any impact on his MVP chances? Seems like he should know better than to be suspended when his team needs him.

 

John Hollinger

 

 

His team needs him for what, exactly? To earn home-court advantage in a Finals meeting against the Nuggets? They're already locked in to the fourth seed.

 

 

 

Chris Cook (Austin, TX)

 

 

Any chance your Hawks get out of the first round versus the Magic?

 

John Hollinger

 

 

The ankle sprain Jason Collins suffered in the San Antonio game could have a big impact on that answer. If he's healthy I don't think the Hawks will win, but they can make it ugly for Orlando and extend the series to 6 or 7 games. If Collins can't play they'll lose in five.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bob (Denver)

 

 

How do you still not think Rose deserves MVP when Jorda, LeBron James, Phil Jackson all say he deserves it. It's like saying there is no snow at the north pole, when people who have actually all been there and experienced it says there is.

 

John Hollinger

Because they're saying it based on the way we've always done it ... that the heartwarming story on the surprise team gets the trophy unless somebody goes Shaq-in-2000 on the league. But this is a silly way to determine "most valuable."

 

 

 

 

Nick (Dayton)

 

 

Why do you like the Hawks? Their PER is no good.

 

John Hollinger

 

Atlanta isn't a good team. They've given up more points than they've scored. But Orlando could not be a more perfect match up for them. They won three of the four meetings in the regular season because the one thing Jason Collins was put on this earth to do is frustrate behemoth centers. He does the same things to Howard he used to do to Shaq.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jason J (NYC)

 

 

How do you respond to the contention that a player like Dwight, whose inability to shoot free throws limits his effectiveness as scoring option late in close games and throws his whole team offense out of whack, has too big a whole in his skill set to be MVP? I'm not sure I buy that argument, but I'd like your take.

 

John Hollinger

 

 

Two reasons. First, I don't understand why everyone assumes their team is the one with the ball in these situations. When the other team has it, you'd take Dwight over every other player in the league except possibly Tony Allen.

 

John Hollinger

 

Second, I don't think people get that getting to the line -- almost regardless of how bad a foul shooter somebody is -- is a hugely positive play. Howard shoots 59; that's an expected return of 1.18 points even if he never gets an and-one and none of his misses are ever rebounded. Nobody in the league gets 1.18 points per possessions on anything, with the exception of a couple recent Suns teams on 3-pointers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Blake (Chicago)

 

 

I think the issue with Dwight's foul shooting at the end of games has less to do with points per possession, and more to do with the way it changes his game -- he's scared to get fouled and is therefore less aggressive, resulting in him just passing to a team mate and not getting fouled at all.

 

John Hollinger

I agree that Howard is less offensively aggressive at the end of games. The funny thing is he's shot really well in clutch situations this year, both on FGs and FTs; he just hasn't shot that often. By the way, Howard leads the NBA in Rebound Rate in late/close, according to 82games.com

 

 

 

Aaron (Chicago)

 

 

If you played out the Eastern Conference playoffs 100 times, how many times do you think Boston, Miami, Chicago, and Orlando would get to the finals?

 

John Hollinger

 

I'll say something like 20-35-40-5

 

 

 

 

 

Matt (Miami)

 

 

Thoughts on Orlando vs Chicago second round? I think Orlando might have matchup advantages there.

 

John Hollinger

 

They do, and I think that could allow them to extend the series, but I would be surprised if they actually won it.

[UBBALLER8 248]

How do you respond to the contention that a player like Dwight, whose inability to shoot free throws limits his effectiveness as scoring option late in close games and throws his whole team offense out of whack, has too big a whole in his skill set to be MVP? I'm not sure I buy that argument, but I'd like your take.

 

John Hollinger

 

 

Two reasons. First, I don't understand why everyone assumes their team is the one with the ball in these situations. When the other team has it, you'd take Dwight over every other player in the league except possibly Tony Allen.

 

 

Say whaaaat?

[BMP 424]

How do you respond to the contention that a player like Dwight, whose inability to shoot free throws limits his effectiveness as scoring option late in close games and throws his whole team offense out of whack, has too big a whole in his skill set to be MVP? I'm not sure I buy that argument, but I'd like your take.

 

John Hollinger

 

 

Two reasons. First, I don't understand why everyone assumes their team is the one with the ball in these situations. When the other team has it, you'd take Dwight over every other player in the league except possibly Tony Allen.

 

 

Say whaaaat?

 

 

Allen is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, so in some situations he could be a better option than Dwight. . .

[Captain Hi-Top 791]

Second, I don't think people get that getting to the line -- almost regardless of how bad a foul shooter somebody is -- is a hugely positive play. Howard shoots 59; that's an expected return of 1.18 points even if he never gets an and-one and none of his misses are ever rebounded. Nobody in the league gets 1.18 points per possessions on anything, with the exception of a couple recent Suns teams on 3-pointers.

 

I can't count how many times DoM has made this exact point on the forums.

[Sabian Jackson 0]

I can't count how many times DoM has made this exact point on the forums.

 

 

I would've thought the obvious response to this is, that regardless of how valuable or positive shooting free throws is, if we had anyone else who was relatively consistent at drawing fouls and shooting FTs, we would never give the ball to Dwight in these situations.

 

The reason it adversely affects his MVP chances is because practically everyone else in most peoples top 10 would be better free throw shooters, and are fairly likely to also get fouled towards the end of the game, therefore meaning a better return to what Dwight would get with his 1.18 pts per 2 shots.

 

I also think, that there are may be psychological factors affecting your team, if you see your key player go to the line, and miss both shots (which isn't unlikely in his case). But I won't really argue that point too strongly, since it's difficult to prove and the effect is probably quite debatable.

 

Finally, I do believe that there is some relevance to the factor that he gets himself banned with a lot of technicals. I do realise its tough for him, and he does get really badly decisions against him, but the reaction not only means he could get banned, but again, could adversely affect his teammates when it comes to seeing his reaction. He's a leader, but being a leader, on the bench in a suit, is not helpful.

[Optimist Prime 197]

I would've thought the obvious response to this is, that regardless of how valuable or positive shooting free throws is, if we had anyone else who was relatively consistent at drawing fouls and shooting FTs, we would never give the ball to Dwight in these situations.

 

The reason it adversely affects his MVP chances is because practically everyone else in most peoples top 10 would be better free throw shooters, and are fairly likely to also get fouled towards the end of the game, therefore meaning a better return to what Dwight would get with his 1.18 pts per 2 shots.

 

I also think, that there are may be psychological factors affecting your team, if you see your key player go to the line, and miss both shots (which isn't unlikely in his case). But I won't really argue that point too strongly, since it's difficult to prove and the effect is probably quite debatable.

 

Finally, I do believe that there is some relevance to the factor that he gets himself banned with a lot of technicals. I do realise its tough for him, and he does get really badly decisions against him, but the reaction not only means he could get banned, but again, could adversely affect his teammates when it comes to seeing his reaction. He's a leader, but being a leader, on the bench in a suit, is not helpful.

 

I think it's worth pointing out that even if Dwight doesn't have the ball, he still effects the offense. The bigs aren't going to leave him open down low, and him getting the ball is always on their minds. So, they are going to have at least two guys available to run at him if he does get the ball.

 

This leads to open shots and drives for his team.

 

Just food for thought.

[Trey Time 186]

Lmao @ Heat winning the East 35 times. They're locked in to play Boston in the second round, which brings their number down to 0.

[Sabian Jackson 0]

I think it's worth pointing out that even if Dwight doesn't have the ball, he still effects the offense. The bigs aren't going to leave him open down low, and him getting the ball is always on their minds. So, they are going to have at least two guys available to run at him if he does get the ball.

 

This leads to open shots and drives for his team.

 

Just food for thought.

 

 

True, and a good point.

 

However, I would say that perhaps the openness of other players is largely irrelevant if Dwight gets hammered as soon as he touches the ball. In fact, all the players could be reasonably open, but as soon as it gets into his hands, he'll be fouled because teams don't fear him from the line. (He might not even have a chance to shoot it when he takes so long to take one as well).

 

On that note though, does a ten second violation count as a missed free throw, or is it just lost to oblivion?

[30Assists 342]

Lmao @ Heat winning the East 35 times. They're locked in to play Boston in the second round, which brings their number down to 0.

I wish there was a like button for this: I couldn't agree with you more. The Heat have no chance of beating Boston in a seven-game series, ESPECIALLY if Wade isn't 100%.

 

I hope Dwight uses not getting the MVP the same way Hakeem did when they won the title. Remember what he did to David Robinson that year? The guy who won the MVP?

 

 

Yeah - hoping Dwight does the same.

[Sabian Jackson 0]

I wish there was a like button for this: I couldn't agree with you more. The Heat have no chance of beating Boston in a seven-game series, ESPECIALLY if Wade isn't 100%.

 

I hope Dwight uses not getting the MVP the same way Hakeem did when they won the title. Remember what he did to David Robinson that year? The guy who won the MVP?

 

 

Yeah - hoping Dwight does the same.

 

Agreed.

 

Also, the green plus button? Good substitute for a "like" button.

[Secretly Space Jesus 670]

I also think, that there are may be psychological factors affecting your team, if you see your key player go to the line, and miss both shots (which isn't unlikely in his case).

 

 

*******BEGIN TRANSMISSION*******

 

This should be fun.

 

Please explain how something that has a less than 17% chance of occurring(0.41*0.41=.1681) could be described as "isn't unlikely in his case".

 

*******END TRANSMISSION*******

[Captain Hi-Top 791]

I would've thought the obvious response to this is, that regardless of how valuable or positive shooting free throws is, if we had anyone else who was relatively consistent at drawing fouls and shooting FTs, we would never give the ball to Dwight in these situations.

 

The reason it adversely affects his MVP chances is because practically everyone else in most peoples top 10 would be better free throw shooters, and are fairly likely to also get fouled towards the end of the game, therefore meaning a better return to what Dwight would get with his 1.18 pts per 2 shots.

 

I also think, that there are may be psychological factors affecting your team, if you see your key player go to the line, and miss both shots (which isn't unlikely in his case). But I won't really argue that point too strongly, since it's difficult to prove and the effect is probably quite debatable.

 

Finally, I do believe that there is some relevance to the factor that he gets himself banned with a lot of technicals. I do realise its tough for him, and he does get really badly decisions against him, but the reaction not only means he could get banned, but again, could adversely affect his teammates when it comes to seeing his reaction. He's a leader, but being a leader, on the bench in a suit, is not helpful.

 

I don't think you comprehend what the phrase "Nobody in the league gets 1.18 points per possessions on anything" really means, and that's completely disregarding the possibility of him making the shot (which is silly because, while he will be fouled on purpose, they still have to actually stop him from putting the ball up, and he just also happens to be second in the league in fg%).

 

If a team is going to foul regardless of who has the ball, you get the ball to your best ft shooters. In our case, Nelson or JJ. If we are looking to score, we're looking at our best offensive option, and that's Dwight, no matter how you look at it.