John Denton: Arenas knee's still an issue

[fedupwithwince 9]

Another bonehead trade by Otis, how does having Areanas make the Magic better? Bad knee's, turnovers, running into his own players, and always a horrible defensive effort. Does Otis think an old dog like Areanas is going to learn and change his ways. Never works

[Miller4Prez66 545]

Arenas' knee will supposedly keep him out of action tonight vs Cleveland.

[jacklj13 16]

i am not worried about his knees it is his brain that concerns me.

[Chase 209]

Another bonehead trade by Otis, how does having Areanas make the Magic better? Bad knee's, turnovers, running into his own players, and always a horrible defensive effort. Does Otis think an old dog like Areanas is going to learn and change his ways. Never works

 

Not saying your wrong but maybe it was a future invesment?

 

Rashard wasn't getting any younger and no one would have picked up his contract. Maybe when healthy gil will be a force again in the future. Maybe we havn't seen what Gil can do, even....... (dare I say it) lead this team if need be.

 

So It was either hold on to a lazy/ageing SF/PF or upgrade at the PG position and have a Solid PG rotation for a few years?

 

I think Otis did a decent job with the situation.

[Babir_9 95]

Not saying your wrong but maybe it was a future invesment?

 

Rashard wasn't getting any younger and no one would have picked up his contract. Maybe when healthy gil will be a force again in the future. Maybe we havn't seen what Gil can do, even....... (dare I say it) lead this team if need be.

 

So It was either hold on to a lazy/ageing SF/PF or upgrade at the PG position and have a Solid PG rotation for a few years?

 

I think Otis did a decent job with the situation.

 

Arenas has more guaranteed years on his contract and 30 millions more than Rashard. Otis had to get a first round pick or one of Wizards young bigs in that terrible deal.

 

Rashard could be much more useful off the bench than Arenas. He could play both forward positions and easily get 18-22 minutes a game and be productive.

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

Arenas for Lewis in the short term was a good deal. Lewis portrayed a complete lack on energy during this season with the magic. He was shooting his worst fg% since his rookie year, his worst 3pt% since '03 and his worst ft% since '00. This was his production against "good" teams:

 

Miami- 0-9 2 points 3 rebounds L

Atlanta- 2-7 4 points 6 rebounds W

Utah- 6-15 16 points 7 rebounds L

SA- 5-10 14 points 3 rebounds L

Miami 5-10 14 points 4 rebounds W

Chicago- 4-8 13 points 4 rebounds W

Atlanta 3-11 10 points 3 rebounds L

Portland- 4-10 11 points 6 rebounds L

Utah- 6-9 11 points 6 rebounds L

 

In other games he's played well and he's played poorly but we need him to show up against better teams. We'd still win 50 something games with him on the roster but I don't know if he would have increased his performance. In November I excused his play as I don't like to judge shooters based on a low number of games. By the time he was traded, Lewis had played in 25 games with the magic and that is enough to judge him by. His energy was nothing like it was during previous years. His play, in addition to Carter's, had a direct effect on the body language of this team. Although you could point out a few "efficient" games in the list above, none of those stat lines really impress anyone after watching Bass and Anderson over the last month or so.

 

Bass and Anderson's stat lines against good teams post rashard trade:

 

Bass; Anderson

Atlanta: 5-12 13 points 5 rebounds; DNP L

Dallas: 3-5 6 points 3 rebounds; DNP L

San Antonio: 8-11 17 points 6 rebounds; 3-8 10 points 3 rebounds W

Boston: 8-15 21 points 9 rebounds; 2-9 10 points 9 rebounds W

New York: 5-8 14 points 7 rebounds; 5-8 14 points 5 rebounds W

New Orleans: 3-13 6 points 9 rebounds; 5-9 14 points 8 rebounds L

OKC: 3-8 8 points 4 rebounds; 5-10; 15 points 5 rebounds L

Boston: 4-7 13 points 3 rebounds; 5-8 16 points 8 rebounds L

Chicago 4-9 9 points 4 rebounds; 2-8 9 points 4 rebounds L

 

As you can see, after trading Lewis, one of our Power Forwards have generally matched or exceeded "typical" Rashard production during big games. Our win/loss record is the same against top level teams too (despite facing an new rotation with players who haven't adjusted yet). At the very least you could argue that the "starting power forward" (or player who gets starters minutes in this case) production is equal before/after the trade. At the very best you could argue that the Power Forward position is more explosive offensively in big games after the trade (Both Anderson and Bass have had better single game stat lines than Lewis in big games this season). Thus the value change of the power forward position post trade (in big games) is greater than or equal to zero (i.e. we haven't taken a step backward).

(observational note: production of "bench" power forward before/after trade (bench players after the trade being PF with less minutes) is similar. Still supports the >0 findings)

 

Prior to the Lewis/Arenas trade Duhon was the primary backup point guard. In the same big games used in the Lewis comparison, Duhon had the following stats:

 

Miami: 0-1 1 point 1 assist 2 TO

Atlanta: 1-3 4 points 4 assists 2 TO

Utah: 0-4 0 points 3 assists 2 TO

SA: 2-6 6 points 2 assists 0 TO

Miami 0-1 0 points 1 assist 2 TO

Chicago: 1-5 2 points 1 assist 2 TO

Atlanta: 3-6 7 points 2 assists 1 TO (playing as a starter)

Portland: 1-1 2 points 1 assist 0 TO

 

So in big games prior to the trade, Duhon had 22 points 15 assists and 11 turnovers in 8 games. He usually played 18-24 minutes in these games too (lowest being 14:34 against Miami; Highest being 32:34 against atlanta)

 

Post-Trade Arenas stats in big games:

 

Atlanta: 2-11 10 points 3 assists 2 TO

Dallas: 1-6 2 points 4 assists 2 TO

San Antonio: 6-14 14 points 9 assists 3 TO

Boston: 2-9 5 points 2 assists 2 TO

New York: 4-10 10 points 6 assists 3 TO

Dallas: 5-11 14 points 1 assist 3 TO

New Orleans 2-5 4 points 2 assist 2 TO

Oklahoma City: 3-8 9 points 5 assists 0 TO

Boston: 2-6 7 points 2 assists 3 turnovers

Chicago: 5-13 11 points 3 assists 4 TO

 

So in 10 big games Arenas has 88 points 27 assists and 26 turnovers. His worst games (lets say boston as it allowed him to have a few games with the team) he went for 5 points 2 assists and 2 turnovers. Production wise, thats comparable to any big game Duhon has played in. In Duhon's one start he had 7 points 2 assists and 1 turnover (32 minutes). In Arenas' one "start" (chicago) he had 11 points 3 assists and 4 turnovers (32 minutes). While I wouldn't say most of these performances are "good", his offense has been much more dangerous to other teams than Duhon's. His minutes in big games hasn't been that much different than Duhon"s either. He isn't playing up to contract, but our backup point guard position is better with him than with Duhon. As you can see, Arenas/Bass/Anderson > Lewis/Bass/Duhon thus the trade was beneficial in the short term.

 

Also, concerning Arenas. We don't really need him to be a high volume scorer on this roster. Between Jameer, JRich, Dwight, JJ, Anderson, Bass, and Hedo we have enough scorers. What we need Arenas to do is have one or two ben gordon/J.R. Smith/Jason Terry type of games in the playoffs. Eventually we're going to need that one explosive scoring night to pull out a win when we otherwise should have lost. Something like that could change an entire playoff series. He's shown he can do that on Washington this year against Chicago and us. I don't care if he keeps his current production up for the rest of the year as long as he has a few good games in the playoffs that help us along the way. 9 points and 4 assists off the bench is fine for the regular season as long as we're still winning.

 

 

Our overall record before the trade was 16-9 after we are 15-8 (though it is notable that after the 3 game adjustment period with a short roster in the first game and no anderson in all three, the magic are 15-5. Thats a win% of 75%) We have 35 games remaining. If we can pull off the current trend of 15-8 throughout the rest of the season we'll have between 52-53 wins on the season. If we keep up the 15-5 type of play we'll win 56-57 games for the rest of the season. We have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way. 20 of the 35 games left are against teams we're definitely better than. We get Miami, LAC, NO, LAL, WASH, SAC, OKC, CHA, NYK, CHI, POR, DEN, NJN, CHA, MIL, CHI, and IND at home. We get MEM, WASH, BOS, PHI, MIA, SAC, GSW, PHX, LAL, MIL, CLE, NYK, NYK, ATL, TOR, CHA, and PHI away. After we play at Boston this upcoming Sunday, we get 8 of the next 9 games at home. We can use that to gain momentum into a tough March where we play 10 of 15 away including a 5 game west coast trip that somehow ends in Milwaukee. If we can make it through that April is pretty easy.

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

Long term is where this deal is going to hurt us. Long term is where salary comes to play. I don't mind having a 9/4 backup point guard who is a threat to explode for big numbers during a single season, but those types of stats don't match a gigantic salary like that.

 

One potential bright spot is that Arenas is more likely to perform well for the duration of his contract. Lewis has 894 regular season games under his belt (30,764 minutes) with an additional 64 playoff games (2,463 minutes). Playing him in the post is going to shorten his career. In comparison, Peja Stojakovic began to decline during the 08-09 season after 648 games and 71 playoff games. Rashard's decline is likely to take a similar path as they have similar game styles and measurables. During the 09-10 season Peja became strictly a jump shooter and was very inefficient. Paul/Collison and West took up enough attention to keep Peja as a 5th option corner three to space out the defense. This year he was cut by toronto after 8 total games.

 

Arenas is 20-30lbs lighter than Lewis and he plays guard so his legs should last longer than a big man. He's only played in 507 games (18,528 minutes) and 20 playoff games (828 minutes). Though he had the knee surgeries they aren't "Penny" type of knee surgery anymore. He's a few years removed from the damage so if he can take care of himself then he should still be productive.

 

This is a risky scenario though. The magic took two gambles with this trade. First, that Arenas can be a piece that gets us back into the finals and keeps Dwight happy and in Orlando. Second, that several injuries and 47 games played in the three seasons prior to the 2010-2011 year is a better risk to take than Lewis averaging 12 ppg with us, approaching 930 games by season's end, adding an additional 15-25 playoff games on top of it, and another possible 200 games before his contract is up (with $10,000,000 owed if waived I'm not sure if we could get a great deal for him).

[Miller4Prez66 545]

Lewis is already on a Peja level IMO. Or at least close to it. I don't miss Rashard Lewis as a player at all. But his contract was more friendly to our future than Arenas. If we don't win a title, our best pitch to Dwight to stay in Orlando would be the summer of 2012. With both he and Rashard's contracts coming off the books, we could have Dwight play the Wade role and recruit someone like Deron Williams to Orlando with him. But now we have Gilbert Arenas' big contracts on the books that summer. We'll see how it goes, but I'm not sure the reward we could get from Arenas is worth the risk we are taking. If he helps win us a title, it's all good. But if he doesn't and his contract ends up costing us Dwight, Otis will probably be run out of town.

[KillingInTheNameOf 63]

Does anybody know the specifics of Arenas' injury? I can try to look it up, but was it a ligament injury or a tear in the meniscus? I'm a family doc and I'd be able to put my 2 cents in if I knew more of the specifics regarding his injury. Judging from the above comments that it has taken 4 years and still not 100% leads me to believe his initial injury was something major like a meniscal tear, which would require more rehabilitation. Otherwise, physical therapy that would strengthen the muscles surrounding the knee and conditioning that would improve his flexibility and reduce stiffening would be highly recommended. I have PT machines in my clinic that use radio-frequency to induce heat and I am able to help a lot of post car accident pts to recovery. I'd be willing to offer my services for free, but I'm sure Arenas has access to all of this at Jewitt.

 

Questions: Isn't tearing the meniscus less problematic than the ACL or MCL? Isn't a partial tear more accurately described as stretching it rather than actually tearing it?

 

In addition to reparing the slight meniscus tear, he had microfracture surgery. Supposedly, its not as dramatic as the procedure others like Penny, Z-Bo, Amare, & Kidd have had because it wasn't on a weight bearing bone. But, 3 of those 4 fully recovered within 2 years, & I've seen football players on the field in the same season after tearing their meniscus. Going on 4 years seems to invite concern. I think he had a couple additional surgeries, but they were more to clean it out. Interested to hear your professional opinion.

[Marc Acres 3:16 418]

On Wednesday, the three-time all star found out why. An MRI exam revealed that Arenas suffered a partial tear of his left medial meniscus. He underwent surgery to repair the meniscus and what the team doctor described as a defect in a bone on the side of his knee at Sibley Memorial Hospital in the District, and is expected to miss at least three months.

 

 

original injury

 

A 2nd article mentioned the lateral Meniscus. A couple of other articles mentioned that the 2nd and 3rd surgeries were to clean out debris.

 

"I repaired a partial tear of Gilbert's left medial meniscus," said Connell. "In addition, he had a nonweight-bearing articular surface defect in the trochlea treated by microfracture. We are optismitic that he will be able to return to action in three months."

My link

 

I remember reading another article that said this microfracture repair was not as serious as the ones that Webber, Penny, all those guys when through. Now Schmitz mentioned to day that the team has had to "knudge" Gilbert into the weight room...of course this is Schmitz talking to it's 70-30 whether he actually knows what he is talking about (70 being "He, has no clue what he is talking about") but if that is the case it's less about the repair job and more about not doing what he is supposed to do as far as rehab goes.

[KandiKane 136]

On Wednesday, the three-time all star found out why. An MRI exam revealed that Arenas suffered a partial tear of his left medial meniscus. He underwent surgery to repair the meniscus and what the team doctor described as a defect in a bone on the side of his knee at Sibley Memorial Hospital in the District, and is expected to miss at least three months.

 

 

original injury

 

A 2nd article mentioned the lateral Meniscus. A couple of other articles mentioned that the 2nd and 3rd surgeries were to clean out debris.

 

"I repaired a partial tear of Gilbert's left medial meniscus," said Connell. "In addition, he had a nonweight-bearing articular surface defect in the trochlea treated by microfracture. We are optismitic that he will be able to return to action in three months."

My link

 

I remember reading another article that said this microfracture repair was not as serious as the ones that Webber, Penny, all those guys when through. Now Schmitz mentioned to day that the team has had to "knudge" Gilbert into the weight room...of course this is Schmitz talking to it's 70-30 whether he actually knows what he is talking about (70 being "He, has no clue what he is talking about") but if that is the case it's less about the repair job and more about not doing what he is supposed to do as far as rehab goes.

 

I think he has not gone about rehabing and strengthing his knee as recommended.

 

Arenas comes across as a guy that would train on his shooting more than anyone in the league, but train on his body on par to the Eddy Curry. Hopefully the magic Employ a staff member to just work with Arenas to improve his strength around the knee. It has been proven league wide if a play in a similar position as Arenas, rehabs and strength conditions correctly can return to a decent level.

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

On Wednesday, the three-time all star found out why. An MRI exam revealed that Arenas suffered a partial tear of his left medial meniscus. He underwent surgery to repair the meniscus and what the team doctor described as a defect in a bone on the side of his knee at Sibley Memorial Hospital in the District, and is expected to miss at least three months.

 

 

original injury

 

A 2nd article mentioned the lateral Meniscus. A couple of other articles mentioned that the 2nd and 3rd surgeries were to clean out debris.

 

"I repaired a partial tear of Gilbert's left medial meniscus," said Connell. "In addition, he had a nonweight-bearing articular surface defect in the trochlea treated by microfracture. We are optismitic that he will be able to return to action in three months."

My link

 

I remember reading another article that said this microfracture repair was not as serious as the ones that Webber, Penny, all those guys when through. Now Schmitz mentioned to day that the team has had to "knudge" Gilbert into the weight room...of course this is Schmitz talking to it's 70-30 whether he actually knows what he is talking about (70 being "He, has no clue what he is talking about") but if that is the case it's less about the repair job and more about not doing what he is supposed to do as far as rehab goes.

 

Sports medicine has come a long way in the last decade. Webber and Penny had very little chance to continue their career after surgery. Webber succeeded to a degree, Penny didn't. Now microfracture surgery is advanced enough that most players recover within 8 months. Amar'e and Zach Randolph are two examples of players returning to their previous form.