Justin Jaudon

I'm guessing Hedo playing around 30 a game for Orlando will push Howard's scoring from just under 22 a game to just under 25 a game. I was having a conversation with my brother-in-law tonight durring the first big run where Howard didn't shoot much, and he said to me that Orlando is better when Howard doesn't touch the ball on offense. As soon as he said it San Antonio started to defend the break again and Dwight settled into abusing their half court offense. Hedo is so key to Orlando being able to do this. We now have at least three guys who can make plays for Howard, and what's great is that all three can be on the floor at the same time. Hedo certainly is the best at this, though. He showed it tonight. I really feel good about that prediction. When Orlando settles down into their half court offense Hedo to Howard will increase our efficiency so much. Thus Howard close to 25 a night by seasons end.

We should only get Matt Bonner if he can bring Christian Drejer with him. And when they get here, we can use Drejer in a way no one else is suited for... Every time Dwight gets mad and is about to do something that will get him T'd up, he punches Drejer in the face instead. We all win with that one. And he can bring Matt Walsh in once Drejer's head caves in.

OK, I gotta say that video does make me wish things could have worked out with Vince. I thought when he came to Orlando he could still be a star in this league, and I think now in Phoenix he can succeed where in Orlando he couldn't. Phoenix won't ask too much of him on D, and I think Nash will do wonders for his numbers. He just never fit the system in Orlando. As much disappointment as I have had with his on-court game in Orlando, the guy was always a class act and I hope he does well in Phoenix. Orlando doesn't always attract good people though. I'm looking at you JJ Reddick. I know what you did to that stripper when you were at Duke. What did Hans ever do to you! All he wanted was to dance!

The most difficult thing to master will also be the most beneficial. Once Jameer and Gilbert learn to play on the same court (which I see no reason to believe can't happen), Orlando will be scary good. Two guys who can get into the defense and make plays, both of whom are solid mid-range guys as well, that is a recipe for success. They will be faster, tougher, and have better ball movement when those two guys learn their roles together. I think in a couple of weeks we will see a really good Orlando team that pushes the ball more on offense and put more pressure on the defensive perimeter. Also, 2 PG on the floor really helps Dwight, because they have to respect that kind of explosiveness. It's harder to collapse on Howard when you know the guys on the perimeter might not be where you left them once he passes back out. It also helps pick-and-rolls, because if the defense makes a quick jump at the ball-handler from another wing position (which teams do a lot), more speed and better passing means the perimeter players will find each other and get easy threes. And lastly, if we see a lot of minutes with Nelson, Arenas, and Turk on the floor Dwight will be up to 25 per before seasons end. Give it a couple weeks and this is a top 3 or 4 team in the league again.

OK, Jameer is not a terrible defender. He is short, and not super fast; but he knows what he's doing. He doesn't make huge mistakes that cause open looks. Other than deciding not to guard Derrick Fisher on the break in that Finals game, he usually makes the right decisions on defense. I'm not saying he's a great defender, or even above average. All I'm saying is, he'll do. As a defender he's not really an asset; nor is he a liability. He's the basketball equivalent of a fat security guard.

Sorry, didn't mean to get competitive on you. Old habits... Anyway, I actually think Jameer and Gil would be a good defensive backcourt. Gil is a better defender than people give him credit for, and he can put pressure on the passing lanes. This, to me, is Orlando's biggest weekness defensively. They rely too much on one-on-one defending and let good perimeter players to get in a rhythm by allowing them to catch balls comfortably and not trying to trap them ever. Hedo cannot trap, big as he is. He just fouls when forced to play D tight inside someones arm length. His strength defensively is his own length, which is great defending guys who are dribble-drivers, but he lets players get a lot of comfortable jumpers. Gil can stick with 2's as well as JRich, and JRich can defend 3's better than Hedo. So logically, the Arenas line-up is better defensively. Understand, that's most of the time. Some guys Hedo seems to really like guarding. I actually think he guards Labron as well as anyone Orlando has thrown at him. He gets called for a lot of fouls, but who doesn't against Labron. Conversely, Hedo should under no circumstances be left in a room with Paul Pierce, because Paul has renamed him Toby and sold his kids for more field hands. Gil can play effective D against Ray Allen, and JRich won't get abused any more than most against Pierce. And to say one more thing of Gil's passing on the break. I live in Richmond, VA, which is a DC market to be sure. So I see a lot of Wizards games, and Gil may not be Jason Kidd, but he can run a break just fine.

Hedo averages 2.9 assists per game for his career. Look it up. His best season, he still didn't meet Arenas' worst as a starter. Arenas is a good passer. He's not a great one, but he is good. For god's sake, Nelson's career high is well under six. there are 2 types of great passers in this league: guys like Grant Hill who never put up huge assist numbers but always seem to make the right pass, and guys like Rondo and Nash who put up huge numbers because they ALWAYS have the ball until they find someone a shot. This offense will never accommodate the later, and Orlando doesn't have the former. So we are comparing two guys who are good passers, but not great. Well, Turk can pass to Dwight Howard, I'll give you that. He's good on the pick-and-rolls, but what else? Can he find open guys on the break? Can he find guys running back door cuts? He's not terrible at these things, for a forward, but Arenas does all of the above, and at a good level. And unlike Turk, he can break down the front of a teams defense, not just the wings. Breaking into the heart of a defense is so huge. Breaking in from a wing is good when you can, but it limits your passing options. Notice how smooth the offense was when Rafer was cutting into the top of the key. You force at least 3 defenders to react to you, and you can go in any direction you want. Like I said, do not keep this up.

The key here, Gilbert and Jameer can distribute the ball. Seriously, man. Just stop. You are going to loose this argument if you tell me Orlando will distribute the ball better with Hedo starting than with Arenas. Hedo is a very good distributor for a forward. Arenas is good for a point guard.

I seem to remember going to the finals with 3 pull up pull-up shooters and a jumpshooting power forward.

Jameer absolutely will not be benched, unless he starts shooting 30% from the floor every night and turning the ball over. Say what you will about the guy, but Orlando hitched their wagon to him when they brought him back in the finals. And that is not a bad thing; the guy reminds me of a younger, more aggressive Derrick Fisher on offense. As long as Orlando doesn't think he's going to one day become a consistent threat for 20 a night or something, they will be in good shape. I'm telling you, Nelson and Arenas on the same floor can work out really well, we just have to give it time.

I will reiterate a little of what I said before. I think after a few games Hedo will be coming off the bench, and Gilbert will be playing more with Nelson. The problem with that to this point has been that they haven't practiced together. Nelson hasn't played off the ball much the last year-and-half, so he will need some practice time to get that right. And any Miami heat fan can tell you that two guys who are used to having the ball in their hands a lot need some serious time to figure out how to play on the same floor. I doubt if they'll have it totally down before the playoff push, but I think once they do (hopefully by the playoff start) they will be nasty for each other. The great thing about having these two on the floor together is the potential for penetration from the 2G position; something we haven't had since what, Penny Hardaway. When you have two guys on the floor who can break through a defense' perimeter, it makes life so much easier on your guys underneath, and it opens up great backdoor opportunities for your 3rd wing (JRich has been good at this his whole career). Another good thing about this is that sometimes Nelson goes cold, and when that happens he tends to go stagnant. he doesn't try to create so much as just hand the responsibility to someone else. That is when it's going to be nice to slide Hedo in with Arenas and JRich in the back-court and let them run pick-and-rolls. As I have said, I love Bass' offense, but he has always been a bad defender. One-on-one, mostly he's not so bad, but as has been stated he is a liability off the ball. That is where we will miss Lewis most; not his floor stretching 3's, because those were gone last year. Say what you will about the guy being soft on D (which he was), he was still smart on D. The guy knew where he was supposed to be, and he knew when to take chances. That being said, being soft on D at the 4 is about like having Einstein in a bear pit; no matter if he can outsmart the thing for a while, eventually he's gonna get eaten (somewhere in the back of my mind, Anthony Hopkins is shouting, "I'M GOING TO KILL THE BEAR!"). Bass needs to start, get 25 to 30 minutes, and then we need to bring in a guy who can defend for 18 to 23 minutes. That is textbook on how to wear down a great 4, by the way. Throw different looks at him. Bring in one guy for half the game who pushes him on one side of the floor, then another to pressure him on the other. JRich will find his shot, and when he does he will be HUGE for this team. And his defense already looks better than it did in Phoenix and Golden State; hopefully he can keep it up.

They actually ran up court after getting a rebound. And the defense looked much better. Hedo really is an underrated defender. When the Col. speaks well of you, you can't be too bad. Not that he is a "defensive stopper", but the man can stay in front of all but the quickest guys at the 3, just by using his length. Arenas and Nelson will be better together after a few games. There is a reason Nelson is putting up career highs in assists this year so far. until now, no one else on the team could pass. Once he gets back into the rhythm of playing off the ball, he and Arenas will be fine. I am really starting to love Brandon Bass' offense. Guy is just consistently aggressive. I think with time this team could either be a contender or fall apart completely. We desperately need a back-up Center though. Malik Allen is amazing. How is that guy in the league?

I don't know what the best one has been, but I know the worst: First Round Pick that became Amar'e Stoudemire and Bo Outlaw for a 35-year-old Jud Buschler who never played. That is just epic bad!

This will be a very long post, as I have a lot to say on the subject. Read the whole thing if you want to reply, please. If you cannot read such a long post, I do not blame you. Ok, I will just say that I do not see how this could not make the Magic better. We replace Vince Carter, Mickael Pietrus, Rashard Lewis, and Marcin Gortat with Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu, and Earl Clark. I am going to look at this player by player, then assess it as a whole. In my opinion, Hedo is going to be coming off the bench. It will not shock me if he starts early on, but I think eventually, he does more for Orlando as a sixth man. His energy will be good in with the reserves, where he will have more of an opportunity to handle the ball, which is when he is most effective. As a sixth man, he replaces Pietrus most directly. Pietrus, even last year, has not been as impressive as he was in the playoffs during the finals run. His defense is good most of the time, but he fouls a lot (though less than he used to). Offensively, he is as unreliable as they come. When he is hitting his shots, his crazy fall-away jumpers and ill-timed threes seem fantastic, and we wonder why he is not scoring more every game. Most of the time his shots are not falling, however, and he quickly stops shooting unless he's wide open from long range. He adds nothing to the offense when he is on the floor with other reserves, and he is not getting open threes off of Howard double-teams. Hedo is also inconsistent as a shooter. However, unlike Pietrus, Hedo can drive the basket and make shots for other players. When he is in the game with reserves, he can be the focal point of the offense and allow good spot-up shooters like JJ and Ryan Anderson to get open looks. So even when he is not shooting well, he is an asset on offense. Defensively, Hedo is underrated, if still not great. As long as he is not asked to play power forward, he is smart and long and doesn't generally allow players to get by him to the lane. He allows a lot of jumpers, but his length usually bothers most players not being Paul Pierce. This is where he will struggle most. Not against Lebron, who will shoot jump shots over anyone and either make or miss them depending on how he feels that day. Pierce owns Hedo. But look at the game footage, and you see that Pierce owned Pietrus as well. Peaches always went for that shot fake, and would get in foul trouble faster than you could think. Orlando now has Q Richardson. If they do not trade him, he will see a lot of minutes when they play Boston. Overall I think Hedo is an improvement as a sixth man, mostly because he gives them a playmaker off the bench, which is something they desperately needed. Jason Richardson will play probably start at the SF position, and play good minutes at SG as well. With most of his minutes coming at SF, he is most directly replacing Rashard Lewis. This looks to require less evaluation, as Richardson is averaging close to 20 and Rashard more like 12, but Rashard is more than the sum of his scoring numbers. Rashard can still cause mismatches with most SF, and sometimes when he slides to PF. That being said, his lack of aggression negates those mismatches. When matched up with smaller 3s, he rarely posts up; and when matched up against big slow 4s, he still seems afraid to shoot the three even when he is open. Defensively he is not terrible, but he can cause mismatches for the other team at times. He is not laterally quick enough to guard guys like Lebron or Pierce, and is quickly overmatched by those guys. Against most 4's, he annoys them, slaps at the ball, and generally makes them work hard, if not exactly keeping them under control. He is a good help defender when it comes to playing the passing lanes, but is no threat as a shot-blocker. Overall, he is solid defensively, but he has holes that can be exploited. I say this in all seriousness; Jason Richardson may be the perfect wing man for this system. I have never been his biggest fan in other offenses, I will admit that. He is neither a great ball-handler nor a great passer, even for a small forward. Fortunately, he won't have to be. All he really has to do is shoot open threes, which he does extremely well, run on fast breaks, which he does well, shoot the ball coming off screens, which he does very well, play the pick-and-roll with Howard, which he does well enough, and run backdoor streaks to the basket, which he does very well. As long as he does those things like he has done them his entire career, he will put up 18 to 20 points a night in Orlando. Defensively, he is a mystery. At times he shows a lot of skills defensively, and he can get after the ball in the passing lanes. That being said, most of the time, he seems disinterested in defense. Not as bad as Vince Carter, but let us not compare the two. Instead I will just say that Stan Van Gundy has gotten a lot out of players who were not considered great defenders in the past, so I will take a wait and see approach with this. At best, Richardson might be a quite serviceable defensive stopper if not exactly Bruce Bowen. At worst, he will be a guy who loses focus at times and needs to be prodded to keep his head in the defensive game (which Stan will not have a problem doing). While guarding 2s and 3s, I think Orlando will be better off with Richardson than with Lewis. Where they will run into trouble is this: losing Lewis as a sometimes-4 will cause them to rely more on Ryan Anderson. I am not sold on this guy. Offensively, I like him. He is more aggressive as a shooter than Lewis at this point, but his defense is hard to gauge. I think with more playing time his post defense will improve, but he does not have the same pesky hands that Lewis does, nor is he really any stronger. And he might be an even worse shot-blocker. All-in-all, defensively, Anderson is a small downgrade from Lewis at the 4. So the total defensive shift is negligible to me. We get a little better on the perimeter, a little worse underneath. So the overall assessment of the replacement is similar to the last replacement: much better on offense, a little less defensively. So Arenas will play 2G when Jameer is on the floor and PG when Jameer is not. So he will most directly be replacing Vince Carter. Let me preface this by saying that I am not a Vince Carter fan. I never have been. When he came in the league, I thought he unfairly overshadowed the much better Paul Pierce. As he grew up in the league, I thought he was a choke artist. When Orlando traded for him, I fell victim to a curse known as wishful thinking. I suspended all I had learned the previous years and pretended that all Vince's late-game troubles had been because he was unhappy in Toronto, then equally so in NJ. So I thought coming home to Orlando might get the disinterested monkey off his back and turn him into a consistent scoring threat. Foolish, I know. I have learned my lesson. People don't just change without a reason. There was nothing holding Carter back in Toronto or NJ but himself, and Van Gundy never could get him motivated in Orlando. Surprising, I know. Vince, to me was a pariah in this offense from this start. He is not a spot-up shooter, but a rhythm shooter. That would be ok, if he could run a pick-and-roll, but as good a ball handler and passer as he is, he does those things well only when isolated against a defender one-on-one. As a pick-and-roll guy he just never seemed to get it. When he was healthy and interested, he could get to the basket easily enough, but once again only when in isolation. Orlando is not an isolation basketball team. Stan likes pick-and-rolls, pick-and-rolls, and post ups (and more pick-and-rolls). This formula worked well enough to get Orlando to the finals a couple years ago, so I think it is solid thinking. Defensively, Carter was disinterested. He never really committed to the system, and even though the team was great defensively until very recently, I will not give him much credit for that. His defense is the main reason he only plays 30 minutes a game in Orlando instead of his previous career average of 35. In truth, I would rather have JJ Reddick on defense than Carter. At least JJ is trying, and smaller 2s seem to actually be bothered by his consistent nagging. Arenas is actually a very capable defender, especially playing the passing lanes, even against bigger shooting guards. He is very quick, and his defense gets better later in games. Offensively Arenas is interesting. He takes a lot of bad shots, and therein lays his only real problem. He is a great passer for a 2, and a good one as a PG. He is a terrific penetrator, and once he gets inside he is a good finisher and a very good interior passer. He is great running pick-and-rolls, and we know how much he will be doing that. He can play off the ball some, but his strength is when he is controlling the offense. At first I thought that would be a problem considering he and nelson would be on the floor for 20 minutes or so per game together. Then I listened to Stan's presser and he said that Nelson had wanted some plays off the ball anyway. So I thought about that, and I remembered that in college Nelson played with Delonte West. I am a U of R fan, so I saw these guys a few times when they played the Spiders. West would sometimes handle the ball and let Nelson run off back screens and get open looks. Nelson has been at other times accustomed to playing off the ball, actually. When Hedo would take the reins late in games, Nelson did much the same as he did in college with West. So Nelson and Arenas should not have too much trouble making it work. People say Arenas could not play the 2 with John Wall, but Jameer is not John Wall. Wall needs to have the ball in his hands all the time to be effective, Jameer does not. So what is the true effect of Arenas on offense? I cannot be sure, in terms of how much he will score. I doubt it will be less than 16 per, but he could come in and put up 25 a night. It is hard to really know what Arenas we will get as a scorer. What we know we will get is a penetrator who will improve our offensive aggressiveness significantly. And that is paramount. Orlando has been the last year-and-a-half one of the worst teams in the league as far as shot attempts and fast break points. Even when you are shooting well, if you are not aggressive, you will have trouble pulling away; and you will never win a 7 game series against a good team if you do not put them down when you have the chance. Good teams fight back, even if you shoot well all night. So Orlando will sacrifice a little offensive efficiency for a lot more tempo, and will lose a disinterested defender to gain a tough one. So the defense will probably not suffer much overall from his bad shots, because he will make up for it by giving them more forced turnovers and less easy drives to the lanes from opposing 2Gs. When he is in the game as a PG, his defense will really be an asset, as he is big while still being quick and gritty. So I think this is possibly the biggest upgrade, but at worst it makes them better offensively if just because Arenas can play the pick-and-roll so much better than Carter. And then we have Earl Clark, 'replacing' Marcin Gortat. Clark will not play. He is a project, and I doubt he will see more than 7 or 8 minutes a game. Marcin Gortat was the best back-up center in the league. That being said, when you have the best starting center in the league, a great back-up is actually not all that necessary. Look at Shaquille O'Neal. Who was his back-up in L.A.? Oh yea, it was Marc Mad Dog Madsen. Gritty guy, but a solid option he was not. Shaq was nearly as prone to foul trouble as Dwight, but the Lakers weathered their minutes without him when they needed to. Orlando will have to do the same. Now that they have so many good perimeter players, they actually have the game to do that. They just need a serviceable back-up who does at least some of the same things defensively. They do not currently have that guy. Right now, when Howard comes out, they have nothing to replace him. Malik Allen is useless on defense, and Daniel Orton is not going to be ready for a long while. My hope is that Orlando will trade JJ and Chris Duhon for a solid backup center. I would love to see them send those guys to Sacramento for Samuel Dalembert. Trade makes sense for Kings as Cousins is starting to impress and Duhon could compete for big minutes on that team with Beno Udrih. JJ would be good for them as well, as they could use a good back-up at 2. That might be asking too much, I know, but someone like that is what they need. There are a lot of guys in the league with that skill set, as long as you don't need them to be a threat offensively. So overall, we're looking at a loss defensively, but only the loss of a guy who played 15 minutes a game. If they pick up even a decent back-up via trade, the loss will actually not be that much. As a whole, each piece that was changed showed a little of the same trend. They gave up a little defense to gain a lot of offense. They fix their biggest problem, which is that they were a team with no energy and no tempo. They gained a smaller problem. They now lack depth at center. If they fix that problem, they really lost nothing and gained a lot. I think their perimeter defense will actually be better, because I think Arenas and Richardson will put more pressure on the passing lanes than Pietrus and Carter. And I think as long as Howard is in the game, we are better defensively down low, because Bass will see more minutes. Our problem will be our bench defense; and as Otis said, they will look to make deals to improve their as well. By the way, when JJ Reddick is struggling does anyone else have the urge to chant, "I do believe in fairies"?