ESPN's stat freak(Hollinger) says draft is strong(frontcourt)weak(wings)Lee a "Bust"

[Miller4Prez64 1]

I'd rather we get depth at big man than waste our time with another bench caliber shooting guard.

[ufballer86 0]

im a gator and continue to think speights would thrive on the magic. he wouldnt thrive on every nba team but our situation is so good for him. dont think hed ever be a 20-10 guy but 15-8 is not out of the question.

[Marc Acres 3:16 418]

quote:

Originally posted by ball junkie:

Do you think Stan could help bring out the best in him? His projected PER is just so doggone "HIGH"! I mean in this entire draft Hollinger has his projected 3-Year PER as the 4th best in the entire draft. Almost as if he's a can't miss prospect!?

 

I don't know, anything is possible. Here is what I do know, when you are in college and playing basketball at a high profile basketball program I would assume your goal is to try and get drafted as high as possible to get the most money. Speights was so concerned about this that the question's about his work ethic and conditioning are enough to take a 6-10 245lb guy with quite a bit of skill and drop him all the way into the 20's. Where do guys like that normally get picked? top 5-10, they are lottery selections, that is how big of a deal this is.

 

How many of these big skilled guys have we seen in the last 20 yrs that only show up during contract years so some idiot GM will give them a big pay day to come to their team because they just need a change of scenary, or they have turned the corner? This guy isn't even working hard when the money IS on the line. How the heck do you not know how to work hard or be in good condition when you saw Horford and Noah doing what it takes to be successful and get drafted high? He does know how, he just doesn't want to be bothered.

 

If we draft him (and I have a terrible feeling we will) I really hope I'm completely wrong about this because he is big and he does have skill, I've just seen way too many players just like him that tease their teams with a few flashes of what they could be then let them down the other 98% of the time.

[SmackDaddy 30]

quote:

Originally posted by ufballer86:

dont think hed ever be a 20-10 guy but 15-8 is not out of the question.

 

I too think he has that kind of potential. Unfortunately for Speights, he was asked to do a little too much at UF as a sophomore after not getting much clock during his freshman season playing behind Horford and Noah.

 

"All in all, we still feel pretty strongly about the fact that if Speights is somehow able to harness all the talent he shows and put it all together over the next few years, he will be looked back at as a player that clearly should have been drafted in the lottery. What we want to know is: how bad could his work ethic be if he went from barely being considered a top-50 high school recruit to one of the most skilled big men in the draft and a potential lottery pick in the span of just two years?"

[SmackDaddy 30]

quote:

Originally posted by Marc Acres 3:16:

I don't know, anything is possible. Here is what I do know, when you are in college and playing basketball at a high profile basketball program I would assume your goal is to try and get drafted as high as possible to get the most money. Speights was so concerned about this that the question's about his work ethic and conditioning are enough to take a 6-10 245lb guy with quite a bit of skill and drop him all the way into the 20's. Where do guys like that normally get picked? top 5-10, they are lottery selections, that is how big of a deal this is.

 

How many of these big skilled guys have we seen in the last 20 yrs that only show up during contract years so some idiot GM will give them a big pay day to come to their team because they just need a change of scenary, or they have turned the corner? This guy isn't even working hard when the money IS on the line. How the heck do you not know how to work hard or be in good condition when you saw Horford and Noah doing what it takes to be successful and get drafted high? He does know how, he just doesn't want to be bothered.

 

If we draft him (and I have a terrible feeling we will) I really hope I'm completely wrong about this because he is big and he does have skill, I've just seen way too many players just like him that tease their teams with a few flashes of what they could be then let them down the other 98% of the time.

 

I tend to think that the entire basketball program was due for a huge letdown after their incredible two year run. That would certainly include their spineless coach, and the remaining players.

 

I also think that Speights probably heard all the chatter about being a lottery pick and figured that he had little left to work for at the college level.

[Marc Acres 3:16 418]

quote:

Originally posted by SmackDaddy:

"All in all, we still feel pretty strongly about the fact that if Speights is somehow able to harness all the talent he shows and put it all together over the next few years, he will be looked back at as a player that clearly should have been drafted in the lottery. What we want to know is: how bad could his work ethic be if he went from barely being considered a top-50 high school recruit to one of the most skilled big men in the draft and a potential lottery pick in the span of just two years?"

 

You know the answer to that Smack, if they have long arms, run fast, have big hands, and can to run down the court without crashing into the goal post and drooling on themselves GM's fawn all over them. Potential is a great thing for players and something to get coach's and GM's fired.

 

GM's are like high school girls, they feel like they are the ones that are going to change the guy with the problems. Oh Mo is such a nyce guy, he just needs someone to care about him then he will work hard. He doesn't seem motivated with a scholorship over his head, how is he going to act when you hand him a couple mill?

[Marc Acres 3:16 418]

quote:

Originally posted by SmackDaddy:

I also think that Speights probably heard all the chatter about being a lottery pick and figured that he had little left to work for at the college level.

 

But isn't that scary for someone that you are going to actually rely on for quality mins? I think I'm in so I'm just going to coast. I would rather have someone with less talent that fights for everything they get, is a guy like that going to fight for mins? Is he going to work to improve?

[SmackDaddy 30]

Listen, I'm not a huge Speights fan. BUt if it were between him and Lee or CDR at #22, I'd take Speights 100% of the time.

 

IMO, we need to select a big man in the draft. The draft is loaded with em. And Speights is touted as one of the best among those big men.

He had desire issues playing at UF for a coach who wasn't even certain he wanted to be there. That doesn't mean that he was a complete waste. It just raises questions. IMO, those questions can be answered rather quickly when you look at how Speights could fare playing on a veteran, contending team.

Also, with the emergence of Gortat and the return of Battie, the magic aren't in a position where they are forced to give Speights minutes.

[ball junkie 277]

Man, I would really like to get a big man as talented as Speights. The fact that he is rated so high with his PER and that he could possibly still be on the board when the Magic select gets me excited!

 

Unfortunately, since I know Marc Acres basketball opinion's so well his opinion's on this thread are driving me nuts! He is a bigtime Gator fan and follows the team fervently. For him to raise this kind of argument makes me think twice when what I really want to do is jump on the Speight's bandwagon and start giving anybody close to me a high-five!(lol)

[Marc Acres 3:16 418]

I understand what you guys are saying, I was just really hoping to get that blue color fighting type 4 that teams need to win. Horace Grant, Udonis Haslem, someone like that.

 

ESPN has a very interesting article up right now on what it takes to be an elite athelet-

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-32-343/Being-an-E...-But-It-s-War--.html

 

Here are some excerpts-

 

Teams are completing their assessments, in preparation for Thursday's NBA draft. They are having players show how well they use ball screens, shot fakes, and jab steps. They are measuring just about everything.

 

And yet many will pick poorly, which surprises me none, because one of the most important things to measure is still largely unmeasurable: the ability to keep caring, day after day, in what is a true test of endurance....

 

...Just about every top player faces punishment from opponents (some bigger, some stronger, some younger, some smarter), injuries, complicated relationships with coaches and teammates, family and friends competing for time and money, media pressure to be everything all the time, stretches when playing time is hard to come by, and all kinds of times when -- ask Amare Stoudemire -- you can't show the world the best of what you can do. Succeeding as an NBA player means dispensing with these obstacles one way or another. Getting stuck on any one of them, in such a competitive environment, only creates opportunities for others to pass you by.

 

So, in these final days before the draft, as teams perform their final workouts, and take their final measurements, the challenge is to go far beyond assessing a player's reach, charisma, or sprinting speed. The success of the pick will ultimately rest onhow well a player's will holds up over the course of a tough decade.

 

Is he going to sulk on the bench behind Battie and Gortat or try and beat them out with every bit of energy he has? If he does beat them out and he get's benched how will he react?

[Soul Bro 1,422]

First off, before stating my opinion, anyone else notice how wrong Hollinger's projected stats were/are for players already in the league? I am not sure this supposed system is even close to accurate. Here are some examples:

 

Hollinger's Projected 3-year PER vs. Actual 3-Year PER

1. Josh Howard: 14.31 vs. 19.37

2. Tashaun Prince: 12.52 vs. 16.22

3. Raymond Felton: 16.29 v. 13.85

 

Those numbers aren't just slightly off, they are millions off.

 

Anyway, as to the argument of Speights vs. CDR or Lee, I am on an island. I still favor CDR over both Speights and Lee. Having watched lots of Memphis games last year, CDR was the go-to guy on the most productive and competitive team last year. Moreover, he tore up the NCAA tourney on both ends of the floor. He finishes well with both hands and is a crafty master at creating his own shot. For the Magic, he could play the 2 or the 3. My personal hope is that Otis and Dave don't get lost with the work-out warriors. What matters most is what happens (happened) in real games. If it were my money, I'd be investing it in CDR ... the best two-way SG in college ball last year.

[ball junkie 277]

quote:

Originally posted by Soul Bro:

First off, before stating my opinion, anyone else notice how wrong Hollinger's projected stats were/are for players already in the league? I am not sure this supposed system is even close to accurate. Here are some examples:

 

Hollinger's Projected 3-year PER vs. Actual 3-Year PER

1. Josh Howard: 14.31 vs. 19.37

2. Tashaun Prince: 12.52 vs. 16.22

3. Raymond Felton: 16.29 v. 13.85

 

Those numbers aren't just slightly off, they are millions off.

 

Anyway, as to the argument of Speights vs. CDR or Lee, I am on an island. I still favor CDR over both Speights and Lee. Having watched lots of Memphis games last year, CDR was the go-to guy on the most productive and competitive team last year. Moreover, he tore up the NCAA tourney on both ends of the floor. He finishes well with both hands and is a crafty master at creating his own shot. For the Magic, he could play the 2 or the 3. My personal hope is that Otis and Dave don't get lost with the work-out warriors. What matters most is what happens (happened) in real games. If it were my money, I'd be investing it in CDR ... the best two-way SG in college ball last year.

 

 

First off, way to cast doubt on Hollinger's system to pump up the guy you have been wanting since day one.

 

Secondly, John didn't say his system was infallible and you were lucky enough to find three players that were off base.

 

But, I think if you analyze his list a little closer you will see he has/had tremendous success in evaluating college players. Most of the guys he had pegged with high PER's in college are the same guys that are playing good/great in the league "Right Now".

 

Call me later.