The Neighborhood Bully 266 Report post Posted November 28, 2018 Quote As a few people have probably noticed by this point, Nikola Vucevic, who not long ago was considered to have reached his potential, has had some eye-popping advanced stats that push him into the upper tier of the NBA. He’s 15th on ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus ranking, and eighth in BPM among high-minutes players. So he’s been killing it in the box-score and in terms of team impact (by raw on-off numbers, by the way, the Magic have been best with him on the court.) Why is this happening now at 28-years-old? First of all, let’s do a cursory search through his stats to see what’s changed. The only career high he’s setting right now among the primary stats is his assist percentage, but it’s not by much. He’s shooting as much as he’s been in five previous seasons, and his rebounding numbers are excellent, as they’ve always been. Even his steals and blocks are within career norms. The most apparent substantial changes have to do with his shooting numbers: his true-shooting percentage, which factors in free throws and 3-pointers, and has always been near or under league average, is now at 61.5 percent (the league average is 55.6 percent.) Like many modern centers who still have their jobs, Vucevic learned to shoot from outside the arc and first started shooting a significant amount of 3-pointers just last season. He’s actually shooting a smaller portion this year, but he’s hitting nearly 40 percent. Also helpfully, he’s near his career-high for free throws per field goal attempts, and he’s at a career high for free throw percentage with 85 percent. However, the most interesting development is with his field-goal percentage at the rim: he’s at 79 percent, which is a mark even LeBron James has only beaten once in his career. Vucevic has not magically changed. He’s still rarely dunking for a 7-foot center. He’s still being assisted on roughly 64 percent of his 2-point shots. But he’s added enough to his game, and the Magic have increased their ball movement and spacing, to where he’s not a lot more effective. You can see what happens here when there’s movement and the defense has to switch: a smaller man has to cover Vucevic and gets burned. He’s also got a real outside/inside game. You can see him here receiving the ball at the 3-point line, where he can’t be ignored, and driving all the way to the rim. That kind of versatility is difficult to fully cover. Generally, when a player has an anomalously high shooting percentage, especially one in his prime seasons, expect some regression to the mean. That’s not to say Vucevic didn’t improve or that the team didn’t improve; all of the above can be true even with some regression. The team has had a lot more movement this season, and it’s paid dividends for the big man in the middle. Watch that shooting percentage at the rim as the season progresses, but some credit should be given to Vucevic. https://fansided.com/2018/11/28/nylon-calculus-bucks-vucevic-kings-elo-ratings/ Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fultz4thewin 2,464 Report post Posted November 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, The Neighborhood Bully said: https://fansided.com/2018/11/28/nylon-calculus-bucks-vucevic-kings-elo-ratings/ That's kind of how I see it too. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Odin 137 Report post Posted November 28, 2018 It looks like today is "write articles about Vucevic" day: Quote Right now, everything looks as easy as a lay-in for Vucevic. He’s already had four games of 30 points or more this season—two of them against the Lakers and Warriors on back-to-back nights this week. Last season, he finished the year with only three such games. On the season, the center is averaging 20.8 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per contest. He’s getting to the line more than ever, too, and shooting over 80 percent from there. His effective field goal percentage is 58.4 percent—the best of his career. In the East, these are All-Star-level numbers. And while Vucevic will surely be beaten out by Joel Embiid for a starting center spot, he’s on track to earn a place on the roster. Vucevic doesn’t have a shooting coach. In fact, he’ll seem slightly offended if you ask. “My shooting form is good, and my jump shot has always been good, so I don’t need one,” he says. “It’s just about realizing and training your body to find the open spots on the court and taking a few steps back.” Like many bigs around the league, Vucevic is constructing an outside game after years tethered to the paint, but this season he’s put more emphasis on shots closer to the rim. His percentage of shots in the restricted area has increased by 4 percent, and his shots inside of 10 feet, where he’s shooting 66.4 percent, now account for more than half of his attempts. Vucevic is starting to shy away from the midrange, too, even if the Magic aren’t. Assuming he plays all 82 games this season, he’s set to take 281 midrange shots. Two seasons ago, when he played in only 75 games, he shot a remarkable 449 times from the same area. “I was so used to getting shots in the midrange that now it’s about getting my feel for the 3s and finding those spots to see where I can get easier shots,” he says. https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/11/28/18116202/nikola-vucevic-orlando-magic-improvement Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Soul Bro 1,419 Report post Posted November 28, 2018 14 minutes ago, Odin said: It looks like today is "write articles about Vucevic" day: https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/11/28/18116202/nikola-vucevic-orlando-magic-improvement Great article. The author concludes that we might want to trade Vooch right now, as he’s in a contract year and his value will never be higher. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TheImmortalPatBurke! 28 Report post Posted November 28, 2018 31 minutes ago, Soul Bro said: Great article. The author concludes that we might want to trade Vooch right now, as he’s in a contract year and his value will never be higher. I agree with the author on trading him. We should be focusing on the future and building a team that can compete at the top of the Eastern Conference for years to come. As well as Vooch is playing I don't see our ceiling ever being high enough with him to ever be a serious threat. The same goes with T Ross, trade him for assets while his value is high. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Okethree 76 Report post Posted November 28, 2018 1 hour ago, Soul Bro said: Great article. The author concludes that we might want to trade Vooch right now, as he’s in a contract year and his value will never be higher. Problem with trading vuc right now is we probably won’t make the playoffs and I know our team is starving for a playoff burger. But I get what he means getting a package of something like Ball and Zubiac from the lakers would be awesome for a player that we probably won’t resign... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fultz4thewin 2,464 Report post Posted November 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, TheImmortalPatBurke! said: I agree with the author on trading him. We should be focusing on the future and building a team that can compete at the top of the Eastern Conference for years to come. As well as Vooch is playing I don't see our ceiling ever being high enough with him to ever be a serious threat. The same goes with T Ross, trade him for assets while his value is high. I wouldn't trade Ross. You don't need every player sitting in the same age window. There's a limited number of real two way players in this league. I'm hoarding every one I can find. Basically it's more difficult to find a guy like Ross to play 20-30 minutes off your bench than a backup center to play 12-20 mpg (under the assumption that Bamba is worth starting). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Okethree 76 Report post Posted November 28, 2018 10 minutes ago, TheImmortalPatBurke! said: I agree with the author on trading him. We should be focusing on the future and building a team that can compete at the top of the Eastern Conference for years to come. As well as Vooch is playing I don't see our ceiling ever being high enough with him to ever be a serious threat. The same goes with T Ross, trade him for assets while his value is high. My personal asking price for Ross is way too high most likely. Ross is the leader of our team and I really think he is going to resign with us so he is a nice piece to keep. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
All Eyes On Me 1,210 Report post Posted November 28, 2018 Ross is the best two-way player we have. We should be talking extension, not trade. Vucevic is gone by next year’s opener regardless of what happens this season. I think keeping him or dealing him strictly depends on our record at the deadline. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Neighborhood Bully 266 Report post Posted November 28, 2018 Curious what everyone thinks it would take to resign Ross. Ariza got 1/$15M T Evans got 1/$12.4M Smart got 4/$52M JJ got 1/$12.25M KCP got 1/$12M Barton got 4/$50M Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fultz4thewin 2,464 Report post Posted November 28, 2018 Just now, The Neighborhood Bully said: Curious what everyone thinks it would take to resign Ross. Ariza got 1/$15M T Evans got 1/$12.4M Smart got 4/$52M JJ got 1/$12.25M KCP got 1/$12M Barton got 4/$50M 4/48 is what I figured Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fultz4thewin 2,464 Report post Posted November 28, 2018 What about Augustin and our pick for dsj? 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
