2017 Official Offseason Thread

[Optimist Prime 197]

sure, remind me what players in year 4 suddenly turned it on after their first three seasons. Except for the rare exceptions like Jimmy Butler who is one in a million, unless you believe Gordon is that player lol. I'll take the under on that 99.99999 times out of 100.

But he doesn't need to become a superstar. We aren't talking about astronomical anomalies. Just that there is considerable room for growth.

[magicblue 315]

Define considerably.

 

It's Ibn's to define, that was the point of my post.

[Ibn Battuta 127]

It's Ibn's to define, that was the point of my post.

why are you punting to me? Pretty sure I made my post very clear. You're the one who said considerable improvement. Pretty sure in an earlier post I said small steps, that doesn't mean considerable improvement.

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

sure, remind me what players in year 4 suddenly turned it on after their first three seasons. Except for the rare exceptions like Jimmy Butler who is one in a million, unless you believe Gordon is that player lol. I'll take the under on that 99.99999 times out of 100.

 

Isaiah Thomas was a 20 and 6 player in his year 3 season, 29 and 6 in his year 7 season

Demar Derozan was a 17ppg player in his year 3 season, 28 ppg his year 8 season

Kawhi was a 12.8 ppg player in his year 3 season, 26 ppg his year 6 season

curry had an injured season year 3, but year 2 was at 18 ppg, year 4 22, year 7 30

Kemba walker 17.7 ppg year 3, 23.2 year 6

Bradley beal 15.3 ppg year 3, 23ppg year 5

Kyle lowry 7.6 ppg year 3, 14 ppg year 5, 21 ppg year 10

Gordon Hayward 14 ppg year 3, 19 ppg year 5, 22 ppg year 7

Goran Dragic 7.5 ppg year 3, 15 ppg year 5, 20 ppg year 6

Paul Millsap 13.5 ppg year 3, 17ppg year 5

Avery Bradley 9ppg year 3, 15ppg year 4

Jrue Holiday 13.5 and 4.5 year 3, 17.7 and 8 year 4

Khris Middleton 13.4 ppg year 3, 18 ppg year 4

Rudy Gobert, 9 and 11 year 3, 14 and 13 year 4

Derrick Favors 9 and 7 year 3, 16 and 8 year 5

Al Jefferson 16 and 11 year 3, 23 and 11 year 5

 

should I keep going? I only went through active players.

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

here's clips of Mack defending http://www.nba.com/magic/news/film-room-shelvin-mack-dependable-defender-cohen-20170709

 

he's not some lock down defender or anything but he's solid. good clips. some good stats.

[Ibn Battuta 127]

that's wonderful! 16 players out of a possible 450 players in a season that made a jump. so about 3.5% of players who made a noticeable jump and not specifically the next season, but sometime thereafter. Like I said, those are some great odds. Where I do take the under on this?

 

You're also not doing a fair comparison by adding players that broke out much later in their careers. If you want to do a fair analysis you have to look at all players in year 3 going to year 4, and how many made any kind of noticeable jump. That percentage is going to go down as the years go on, because it makes sense that it's even rarer for a player 5 years or more in the league to suddenly break out and become an all star.

[TheNameIsOrlando 310]

Gordon is 21.

 

I believe in Gordon but what's the difference between a 21 year old 3 year NBA player and a 21 year old coming out of college? Wouldn't the narrative about the college kid be "He's older limited ceiling"?

[magicdoc1 261]

No way I put us on par with Miami and Milwaukee.

Miami and Milwaukee are teams that you dont know r what to expect from them. I will also add Detroit to that list. They can be all good as well as very bad. It happened last year with Miami beating all expectation and Milwaukee under performing. I can see us splitting games with those three team but I agree. They will end up ahead of us in my opinion.

That is the reason why i see us ending in that 9-10 position in the East. but will not be surprised if somehow we end up above those two teams.

[magicdoc1 261]

I believe in Gordon but what's the difference between a 21 year old 3 year NBA player and a 21 year old coming out of college? Wouldn't the narrative about the college kid be "He's older limited ceiling"?

Very different. Place Gordon on any college team now and see him play against college kids. You will be amazed.

[magicblue 315]

why are you punting to me? Pretty sure I made my post very clear. You're the one who said considerable improvement. Pretty sure in an earlier post I said small steps, that doesn't mean considerable improvement.

 

Oh yeah, crystal clear. So the over/under is Jimmy Butler who plays a completely different position, is that what you're saying? What does that look like in a guy that plays PF? I'd suspect there's better than a one in a million chance he becomes an all-star, if that's how we're defining considerable improvement

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

I believe in Gordon but what's the difference between a 21 year old 3 year NBA player and a 21 year old coming out of college? Wouldn't the narrative about the college kid be "He's older limited ceiling"?

 

a third year player gets to spend 3 years in a professional program. there's a difference. it's not an equal difference. a third year 21 year old and a third year 23 year old aren't on the same development curve, but a 21 year old 3 year pro isn't the same as a 21 year old 0 year pro.

[HeHateMe 697]

All I know is if AG doesn't have this "considerably better" year, people need to start giving him legitimate criticism as he gets such a pass on here by most everyone.