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2017 NBA Draft Thread

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Ford's latest mock has us picking 7th and choosing Tatum:

 

"How deep is this draft? Some NBA scouts have Tatum No. 1 on their board. He goes No. 7 here.

 

Tatum is the prototypical NBA wing in both size and skill set. He's athletic and strong, he can score from all over the floor, and he plays defense. His lack of a strong 3-point shot (6-for-20 so far this season) is the biggest weakness of his game and pushes him a little farther down the board for some teams.

 

The Magic don't really need a small forward, especially when Aaron Gordon continues to show so much promise. But at this point, Tatum is the best player on the board and a great pick here."

 

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/18396903/chad-ford-nba-mock-draft-20-picks-philadelphia-76ers-boston-celtics-more

 

man, ford's a dick for projecting us to pick 7th considering we're currently 11 or 12 and would need a pretty big collapse to reach 7th.

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man, ford's a dick for projecting us to pick 7th considering we're currently 11 or 12 and would need a pretty big collapse to reach 7th.

He's going off the BPI (http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page/BPI-Playoff-Odds/espn-nba-basketball-power-index-playoff-odds), and I'm guessing he wrote the article yesterday. Either way, we currently have a 2.5% chance of making the playoffs, which isn't good. I wish we'd tank but doubt we will.

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He's going off the BPI (http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page/BPI-Playoff-Odds/espn-nba-basketball-power-index-playoff-odds), and I'm guessing he wrote the article yesterday. Either way, we currently have a 2.5% chance of making the playoffs, which isn't good. I wish we'd tank but doubt we will.

 

those playoff odds might not be very good. They're using a presumption that we're worse than we actually are because of our margin of victory which is poor because when we lose we lose bad and when we win we win moderately. So the basic idea is we're lucky to win the games we've won. In reality, we're probably just a high variance team which shouldn't have that big of an impact on projections. A similar model was used several years ago to determine that Oregon was going to destroy Auburn in the national championship because they blew out everyone while Auburn beat a bunch of teams by 1 score.

 

basically, we're tied with Detroit in the standings and tied with them head to head but they have a 74% chance to make the playoffs and we have a 2% chance to make the playoffs. That doesn't make sense.

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those playoff odds might not be very good. They're using a presumption that we're worse than we actually are because of our margin of victory which is poor because when we lose we lose bad and when we win we win moderately. So the basic idea is we're lucky to win the games we've won. In reality, we're probably just a high variance team which shouldn't have that big of an impact on projections. A similar model was used several years ago to determine that Oregon was going to destroy Auburn in the national championship because they blew out everyone while Auburn beat a bunch of teams by 1 score.

 

basically, we're tied with Detroit in the standings and tied with them head to head but they have a 74% chance to make the playoffs and we have a 2% chance to make the playoffs. That doesn't make sense.

 

basically they're saying we have 40/1 odds to make the playoffs which is the equivalent of what vegas currently has as the odds for the knicks or Grizzlies making the finals or the current odds for the Houston Texans getting to the superbowl. That's waaaay too low.

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