Official 2015 Offseason Thread

[Catman 380]

defensive rating=defensive efficiency, the link says it all.

 

LINEUP NOT TEAM.

[Catman 380]

According to the defensive rating stat, our best defensive lineup was Fournier, Frye, Harris, O'Quinn, and Oladipo. Allowing 100.7 points per 100 possessions, good for 105th best lineup in the NBA.

 

Right. There is not one good lineup. It's bad.

 

So do you think these guys are all this bad at defense? I do not.

 

The argument was used that Tobias Harris is a defensive negative for this team (based on lineup analytics) and should not be resigned and is not worth the max..etc.

 

But I believe this is more on the scheme and player usage many times. We will see how it goes in a few months, but I don't like this metric to measure a players output on a team where literally every lineup is bad at defense. Reeks of scheme to me.

[Catman 380]

My main point from all of this is that I think that (and I said this last preseason, albeit prematurely) Harris playing next to Gordon in a proper scheme could be a lot more effective for Harris.

 

Last year he played next to Frye a lot, and as a result had to defend the quicker SF that I think Gordon would be better suited to handle.

 

The Magic should be able to figure out a better matchup each night for Harris this year with Gordon out there.

 

In turn, Harris knows how to score efficiently and we need that. He can shoulder that load especially the nights Gordon struggles.

[Murphy13 185]

[quote name='Catman' timestamp='1437003482' post='1014543'

 

 

 

I don't believe the lineup is always a reflection on the player. I think it is on the role they are being asked to play, which is not always their strength or a good scheme. Too many variables there, which is why I don't hold a lot of credence to lineup based stats.

 

I can appreciate your sentiment regarding the role a player is asked to take on. That being said, when the Magic's top rated 4-man team drops to the low teens when Harris is added as the fifth man is telling regardless of what role suits him best. Other players in that fifth man role all 5 man teams finish much higher in net efficiency rating, though few minutes available in said lineups dilutes that strength of those stats individually. The five man with Harris logged over 200 minutes, therefore is a strong indicator. The best lineups with him in them were not anywhere near our best lineups...which were mostly bad. That makes the lineups he was in terrible. That compilation of various lineups he was in accounts for the 'variability' you mention-by nature of placing him with each combination possible. This just underscores the statistical significance factor of analytics. Regardless of what one views a particular players ability to be, if he can't find a place that benefits the team, his stats are empty (actually negative)...Harris in a nutshell.

[Murphy13 185]

LINEUP NOT TEAM.

 

I addressed that in the edited post above, I earmarked the edit.

[Catman 380]

I addressed that in the edited post above, I earmarked the edit.

 

 

Got it. I loved looking for effective lineups earlier in the season using these advanced stats on NBA.com and I made a post about it mid season. But I started seeing how dramatically scheme effected it, and I just don't like using it to judge players individually.

 

Plus Kerr is one heck of a coach. And that shows in the stat as well. The team DefRtg looks pretty good. Bodes very well for the Bucks next season.

[Murphy13 185]

Right. There is not one good lineup. It's bad.

 

So do you think these guys are all this bad at defense? I do not.

 

The argument was used that Tobias Harris is a defensive negative for this team (based on lineup analytics) and should not be resigned and is not worth the max..etc.

 

But I believe this is more on the scheme and player usage many times. We will see how it goes in a few months, but I don't like this metric to measure a players output on a team where literally every lineup is bad at defense. Reeks of scheme to me.

 

How about offensive efficiency rating? With Harris on the floor our OFF efficiency rating was +2.1, the other teams' OFF efficiency rating was +4.2. So, with Harris on the floor the other team score 2 points for every 1 point we gained with his offensive 'efficiency'.

 

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/ORL/2015/on-off/#on-off::none

 

Just for thoroughness, AG brought a -.7 when on the floor, the opposing team a +.8. NET 1.55 point differential

Oladipo brought a +4, and opponent +4.5, respectively...for reference. NET .5 point differential

[Murphy13 185]

Got it. I loved looking for effective lineups earlier in the season using these advanced stats on NBA.com and I made a post about it mid season. But I started seeing how dramatically scheme effected it, and I just don't like using it to judge players individually.

 

Plus Kerr is one heck of a coach. And that shows in the stat as well. The team DefRtg looks pretty good. Bodes very well for the Bucks next season.

 

The Bucks were actually ranked in the top five last season already. That is why they made the playoffs, but even adjusted for strength of schedule, they were still top 10. In short, they are going to be a really good team.

[Catman 380]

How about offensive efficiency rating? With Harris on the floor our OFF efficiency rating was +2.1, the other teams' OFF efficiency rating was +4.2. So, with Harris on the floor the other team score 2 points for every 1 point we gained with his offensive 'efficiency'.

 

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/ORL/2015/on-off/#on-off::none

 

Just for thoroughness, AG brought a -.7 when on the floor, the opposing team a +.8. NET 1.55 point differential

Oladipo brought a +4, and opponent +4.5, respectively...for reference. NET .5 point differential

 

Again, our coach was Jacque Vaughn who struggled with lineups and schemes. You are going off of lineup stats and I am not. I already explained why that's a bad idea.

 

There are plenty of articles that explain why Tobias Harris IS an efficient player and why he was hampered by the scheme he was in. This is the easiest one as it shows everything I am saying - http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2015/05/06/the-nbas-most-underrated-player/

 

An easy stat to counter everything you just said and one I used earlier in the season was Player Impact Estimate. Vuc was #1 and Harris #2. Nobody else was really that close except KOQ, who played limited minutes.

 

Harris was also rated 18th in player efficiency for the entire NBA.

"Four years, $53 million for a guy who ranked 14th in the league last season in estimated wins added (13.9) and who also had a player efficiency rating of 21.6 (good for 18th in the league)."

 

http://hoopshabit.com/2015/07/04/orlando-magic-locking-tobias-harris-right-move/

 

So when you put that word in quotes it just doesn't make any sense.

[Jay Magic 1,251]

I think we can all pretty much guarantee that our DEFENSE is going to be a whole lot better due to Skiles alone.

[Trey Time 186]

The Bucks were actually ranked in the top five last season already. That is why they made the playoffs, but even adjusted for strength of schedule, they were still top 10. In short, they are going to be a really good team.

 

Of course they will be, the shortest guy in their starting five is 6'6 lol. They're going to be an NBA version of last year's Kentucky team. Can't shoot over them, can't pass around them, they're just too damn big.

[Murphy13 185]

Again, our coach was Jacque Vaughn who struggled with lineups and schemes. You are going off of lineup stats and I am not. I already explained why that's a bad idea.

 

There are plenty of articles that explain why Tobias Harris IS an efficient player and why he was hampered by the scheme he was in. This is the easiest one as it shows everything I am saying - http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2015/05/06/the-nbas-most-underrated-player/

 

An easy stat to counter everything you just said and one I used earlier in the season was Player Impact Estimate. Vuc was #1 and Harris #2. Nobody else was really that close except KOQ, who played limited minutes.

 

Harris was also rated 18th in player efficiency for the entire NBA.

"Four years, $53 million for a guy who ranked 14th in the league last season in estimated wins added (13.9) and who also had a player efficiency rating of 21.6 (good for 18th in the league)."

 

http://hoopshabit.com/2015/07/04/orlando-magic-locking-tobias-harris-right-move/

 

So when you put that word in quotes it just doesn't make any sense.

 

First of all, that stuff in bold is actually in reference to Nikola Vucevic, not Harris. Harris was nowhere near either of those numbers. Further, that author doesn't fact check his assertions (or he makes things up): by no measure is Harris 4th in ppg at any position, especially at forward: http://stats.nba.com/league/player/?ls=iref:nba:gnav#!/?Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PlayerPosition=F&sort=PTS&dir=1. And FWIW I can find no source that confirms Nik's win shares were near 13.7 or whatever he said, the only # I found was 7. That is enough to completely disregard that article, even if he was right in theory...which he wasn't. When the other team scores more than yours particularly more when player X is on the floor then you cannot call him efficient in good conscience.

 

Now, that bballanalyticbook article IS interesting, and basically paints something Harris could be. I am an optimist, I hope he achieves his ceiling. We don't have access to the stats that author used, so there is no way to confirm the accuracy of his statements...which is important considering that writers WILL fudge numbers to make a point where there is none (see hoopshabit article above). Bottom line, there has always been some reason to believe Harris will break through. 15/6 35% is very decent numbers in this league, not worth what he's getting paid-but very decent. I hope he can make that happen! Just don't get all bent when people bring data that shows otherwise, because frankly, there is A LOT MORE data indicating that Harris just isn't that good. Doesn't mean he is a bad player, but it means that he will ultimately be somewhere between Leon Powe and Glen Davis...which basketball reference keenly likens him to.

 

One last thing in reference to your first bolded sentence: Again, I never go off of just one stat, I compound my data to make sure it passes a cross check. Always. Besides, the data I presented in the post you responded to wasn't lineup data anyway.