Vucevic now 5th in the league in rebounding

[jjgator 164]

A better question is which is more worthy of praise: making good deals that increase your team's odds of success, or being on the right side of fluke events that no one saw coming?

 

Just because you didn't see it coming doesn't mean Hennigan didn't. I'm not saying he did, but it's not out of the realm of possibility that he did.

[The Neighborhood Bully 266]

You are misrepresenting the original argument and the logic being applied, which is, in turn, allowing you to twist the discussion and make a point which is really not applicable to the conversation. The point I made was that the McGrady S&T was not based "almost purely on potential". Did Houston make a bad deal in signing Harden to a massive contract extension? It's virtually the same scenario as T-Mac, and neither of those deals were done on an analysis with a heavy emphasis on potential.

 

A future draft pick is pure potential. Drafting a player right out of high school is based on a significant portion of potential. Watching a player break from the shadow of "more talented" teammates, and projecting that player to be able to expand his game and take on a starting role and focus on offense, while still dealing with some aspect of potential, is not nearly taking the same level or risk (the larger dependency on potential representing a larger risk being taken).

 

McGrady, in-case you don't remember, was also courted by the Bulls and the Heat. Assuming both of those teams were also willing to pay him a max contract, then Orlando got McGrady for market value at the time, which could not have been construed as a bad deal.

You are confusing two different questions from the overall conversation, two different discussions that are not dependent upon one another. The analysis of the trade, at the time of trade is a basic "what did you give up versus what did you get in return" in terms of market value. The long term analysis, which would track and take into account the development of the talent acquired, the actual draft choices made with the pics, etc. is a separate analysis.

 

It's entirely possible to make a good trade, and end up with bad results through talent that didn't live up to projections, bad drafting, getting good potential draft picks only to end up picking high in a bad draft etc. Conversely, it's also possible to make a bad trade and end up with good results in the long run.

 

The Nets and Rockets were also making offers, and supposedly Rob chose the best offer. Using your logic, the Magic received market value for Howard at the time, which could not have been construed as a bad deal.

[Captain Hi-Top 791]

How do we know that Hennigan didn't see this in him? Do you know for a fact he didnt? He chose him over Lopez, so he must have seen something. Plus we also received AA, a 19 yr old rookie with potential, dumped two contracts, and received future draft picks (which only have future value, but still have to be factored in to some extent)

 

I know I already addressed this post, but I really want to drive this home...

 

This has the potential to be the worst analysis/oversimplification that I have ever read on this forum. I'm saying right now it's horrible, and depending on how this plays out, could be the all time worst case ever presented by a member of this forum, so it's like a bad trade that plays out to be worse than expected. The fact that you boiled down the trades between NJ and what we ultimately got for Dwight as a Lopez or Vucivec trade is simply ridiculous. The inference that Hennigan thought highly enough about Vucivec that he passed on Lopez is laughable and completely ignores the reality of the situation. Lopez was about to get grossly overpaid, and the reported deal with the Nets was atrocious.

[jjgator 164]

By fluke events, are you referring to Grant Hill's demise or Ben Wallace ascension to DPOY? Regardless of what happened to Hill, Detroit was interested in Wallace and were going to attempt to sign him. They had the foresight to see the "hidden value" and made the most of a bad situation, which could have been Grant Hill signing with Orlando and the perception that they got nothing in return for him. Not a whole lot different than our situation, except we didn't even have the leverage to sign any FA's because of Otis Smith's mismanagement. Look, I understand your point...we didn't get equal value for Dwight, but that was inevitable and letting him walk for nothing wasn't an option. We got the players that Henny wanted, not the media, not necessarily us as fans, and its not looking so bad at the moment...at least in terms of our rebuild. Would you agree?

 

Great post, and it's basically the point I was trying to get to in this thread. The trade looks better today than it did when it was made. Whether that was luck or skill on Hennigan's part is up in the air, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

[liamnado 2]

This thread has gotten way off topic... Back to Vucci's rebounding:

 

He is now #4 in the league for rebounding average, and 0.2 rebounds away from being #3 in the league. If he keeps up this pace he can easily finish the season at #2, and even #1 wouldn't be entirely impossible:

 

#1 Dwight Howard 12.5 rpg

#2 Zach Randolph 11.7 rpg

#3 Omer Asik 11.1 rpg

#4 Nikola Vucevic 11.0 rpg

#5 David Lee 10.9 rpg

[magicblue 315]

I know I already addressed this post, but I really want to drive this home...

 

This has the potential to be the worst analysis/oversimplification that I have ever read on this forum. I'm saying right now it's horrible, and depending on how this plays out, could be the all time worst case ever presented by a member of this forum, so it's like a bad trade that plays out to be worse than expected. The fact that you boiled down the trades between NJ and what we ultimately got for Dwight as a Lopez or Vucivec trade is simply ridiculous. The inference that Hennigan thought highly enough about Vucivec that he passed on Lopez is laughable and completely ignores the reality of the situation. Lopez was about to get grossly overpaid, and the reported deal with the Nets was atrocious.

 

Your over-dramatization doesn't make it so, but it certainly is entertaining. Sorry, I'll quit my job and/or cancel meetings next time I post to be sure I cover all aspects of the point I'm trying to make. :wacko:

[Captain Hi-Top 791]

The Nets and Rockets were also making offers, and supposedly Rob chose the best offer. Using your logic, the Magic received market value for Howard at the time, which could not have been construed as a bad deal.

 

Incorrect.

 

The rumored deal with Houston was, in my opinion, better than what ended up with, and I really think there was a directive from ownership to trade Dwight to the Lakers. I think Hennigan was ready to go the distance with Dwight and dare him to walk away from a max contract that surpassed what everyone else could offer, but he was given a directive to send Dwight to his preferred destination (since the nets took themselves out of the running). I have nothing to substantiate this, so no point in arguing.

 

That being said, if you look at the value of Dwight and other top tier player trades in comparison, I feel we didn't get an appropriate return, even taking into account the whole "you never get equal value" cliche. McGrady, on the other hand, is a cut and dry analysis. He had multiple max contract deals thus setting his market value accordingly.

 

I think you guys are seriously undervaluing what Dwight brought to this team and how difficult it is to replace that in one player.

 

 

This is only the fourth time since blocks became an official stat in 1973 that a player averaging at least 20 points, 10 rebounds and two blocks per game has changed teams after that season.

 

In 2004, the Lakers traded Shaquille O’Neal to the Heat. It took the Lakers four seasons to win a playoff series and get back to the NBA Finals. In 1996, Shaq left the Magic to sign with the Lakers. The Magic didn’t win another playoff series for 12 years. The Bucks traded Kareem Abdul-Jabbar to the Lakers in 1975 after reaching the 1974 NBA Finals and haven’t returned to the Finals since.

 

Popular Opinion at the time (link)

 

You can google a vast number of sports writers to see what they thought of the trade as well, but Simmons is my favorite (and since this doesn't involve Boston, it's pretty un-biased).

 

LOSER: Orlando I knew the pupu platter was coming. You knew it was coming. Even Orlando's fans knew it was coming. But when it actually happens and you're staring at those lukewarm spareribs? Man … there's nothing worse.

 

What Orlando sent out: Howard and nearly $30 million of cap-clogging contracts belonging to Jason Richardson, Chris Duhon and Earl Clark.

 

What Orlando got back: Arron Afflalo, Nik Vucevic, Al Harrington, Mo Harkless, three protected first-rounders, cap space next summer, three soggy fried shrimp, six half-cooked egg rolls and four sweet-and-sour chicken skewers to be named later. Hey, at least there isn't a storied history of NBA teams giving away superstars for 50 cents on the dollar, then totally regretting it after the fact … well, except for the two Wilt trades, the Kareem trade, the Dr. J trade, the T-Mac/Rockets trade, the Moses/Philly trade and the Barkley/Phoenix trade.

 

Was it a bad sign for Orlando that they got significantly less for the league's only dominant center than the Hornets got for Chris Paul and the Nuggets got for Carmelo Anthony? I'm going out on a limb and saying "yes." Had I been running the Magic, there would have been a zero percent chance — repeat: zero percent chance — that I was trading Howard unless I was getting Bynum back AND dumping Turkoglu's contract. Without those two things, I'm just keeping Howard, letting the soap opera drag on and on for a few more months, then hoping I could do better in February.

 

And guess what? I'm pretty sure that, six months from now, Philly, Denver and the Lakers would all still want to do a four-team trade in which all of them made out great and the Magic made out like crap. I hate how Orlando handled this saga; I hate that they caved; and I hate this trade for them.

 

Now, I disagree with him on one point. I didn't want Bynum then, and still don't, but that doesn't change the underlying point.

[jjgator 164]

Hi-Top: Hennigan did basically say the rumored Houston deal didn't actually exist in the press conference. There were sources saying the Houston deal was cap relief OR talent OR draft picks(or some combination of the 3, but absolutely not the rumored deal). But you're correct, I guess we won't ever truly know what was offered. I will still give Hennigan the benefit of the doubt when he said the trade offer from Houston wasn't as good as was initially reported.

[TheREALBrooksThompson 157]

Just because you didn't see it coming doesn't mean Hennigan didn't.

 

No GM, no matter how skilled, knows what any one player is going to do. They work with probabilities. It's the only way to make rational decisions with so many uncertain variables.

 

There is risk involved with all players, and especially with young players. If Hennigan didn't take this risk into account, he's not doing his job properly. Even if he thought Vucevic was going to be All-NBA, the smart thing to do is to downplay that when talking to the Sixers and highlight the uncertainty involved with him to lower his value. That's how you extract as much value as possible in a trade.

 

Keep in mind, a player's trade value and his actual value to any given team are two different things.

[magicblue 315]

Incorrect.

 

The rumored deal with Houston was, in my opinion, better than what ended up with, and I really think there was a directive from ownership to trade Dwight to the Lakers. I think Hennigan was ready to go the distance with Dwight and dare him to walk away from a max contract that surpassed what everyone else could offer, but he was given a directive to send Dwight to his preferred destination (since the nets took themselves out of the running). I have nothing to substantiate this, so no point in arguing.

 

That being said, if you look at the value of Dwight and other top tier player trades in comparison, I feel we didn't get an appropriate return, even taking into account the whole "you never get equal value" cliche. McGrady, on the other hand, is a cut and dry analysis. He had multiple max contract deals thus setting his market value accordingly.

 

I think you guys are seriously undervaluing what Dwight brought to this team and how difficult it is to replace that in one player.

 

 

 

 

Popular Opinion at the time (link)

 

You can google a vast number of sports writers to see what they thought of the trade as well, but Simmons is my favorite (and since this doesn't involve Boston, it's pretty un-biased).

 

 

 

Now, I disagree with him on one point. I didn't want Bynum then, and still don't, but that doesn't change the underlying point.

 

Two things: Everything in the first paragraph is a guess on your part and not worthy of mentioning...in my opinion this is the worst piece of speculative crap I've come across, and maybe ever will come across, on this board. ;) Secondly, popular opinion doesn't mean squat. Having said this, I'm done fighting this battle. Thankfully, looking back, we did a bit better than we thought. Hopefully we can all agree on that

[jjgator 164]

No GM, no matter how skilled, knows what any one player is going to do. They work with probabilities. It's the only way to make rational decisions with so many uncertain variables.

 

There is risk involved with all players, and especially with young players. If Hennigan didn't take this risk into account, he's not doing his job properly. Even if he thought Vucevic was going to be All-NBA, the smart thing to do is to downplay that when talking to the Sixers and highlight the uncertainty involved with him to lower his value. That's how you extract as much value as possible in a trade.

 

Keep in mind, a player's trade value and his actual value to any given team are two different things.

 

Agree completely. I guess it was a poor choice of words to say he would KNOW Vuc would be this type of player. Still, I'm starting to really trust this GM's logic, something I couldn't say in the previous regime.

[DanA_TBDP 12]

I don't think we're taking into account what Dwight's back did to his trade value especially after seeing guys like Amar'e lose a ton of athleticism from similar injuries. Kind of like a degenerative knee that has already sapped some power and puts a expiration date on a player. Dwight isn't what he once was and for all we know, his back will only give him ore problems down the road.