A little food for thought from Hollinger......

[ball junkie 277]

Over the past three years, Orlando, Boston and Los Angeles are 5-5 against each other in playoff series and 21-1 against everyone else.

 

Nobody is particularly high on the way these three teams are playing at the moment, but it's worth nothing that over the past three years they've lost only to each other (with the exception of the 2008 Orlando-Detroit series) and have crushed the other 27 teams.

 

The Lakers aren't going to be overlooked, obviously -- they're virtually everybody's pick to come out of the West -- but I do wonder if we're prematurely dismissing the possibility of an Orlando-Boston conference finals rematch in the East. Chicago and Miami were better in the regular season; no argument here. But Boston played much better when it had the Big Leprechaun in the lineup and may have him back by the time it's playing games that matter, while the Magic are a classic matchup nightmare because of how Dwight Howard can screw up opposing defenses.

 

I'm not saying you should bet on any of these three teams; past performance does not guarantee future results, as they say in the stock fund prospectus. But this does stop and make you think, doesn't it?

 

The first-round 4-5 series seems immune to home-court advantage.

 

Since 1983-84, the 4-5 series is 27-27; by individual games, the No. 5 seeds have actually won two more. Take heed, Hawks and Nuggets fans. There's a good chance that one of you will be celebrating a trip to the second round.

 

As for the others, their odds are longer. No. 1 seeds win 94.4 percent of the time, and No. 2s win 90.7 percent. Memphis, Indiana, New Orleans and Philadelphia, your postseason stays are likely to be short-lived.

 

No. 6 seeds at least have a reasonable shot, winning 27.8 percent of the time. That would produce a 3-6 upset about once every two years; our last No. 6 winner was two years ago, when Dallas beat San Antonio, so we're right on schedule this year.

 

I like the first one better....we all know the Noggets will win and the Magic.

 

GO MAGIC !!!

 

BEAT THE HAWKS !!!

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-110414

[Rahzel 27]

I didn't realize that those 3 teams have only beaten each other in the last 3 post seasons. (excluding '08 when the Pistons beat the Magic) That's very interesting and I like looking at the past for things like that.

[Mr13A 93]

Well I don't know about the "noggets" but I'm sure the Magic will at LEAST come close to sweeping the Hawks.

[jacklj13 16]

most have already written the magic off. however i think we can make it to the ecf. i just do not think chicago can beat us in a series. i would love to face miami and kick their butt back to south beach with their tail between their legs.

[Butterfly 3]

Today, I got a chance to watch ESPN, and last night before the game, I watched NBA TV. I think alot of the experts think that if there is going to an upset, it will be with the Hawks and the Magic. Even Charles Barkley said the series is the only first round that will be competitive. The guys on NBA TV made some good points to think about. Hawks do not need Collins to score, only to harass Dwight and throw him off his game. Will Dwight be mature enough to handle this, and the Hawks will have tha ZA ZA guy to bother Dwight. The Hawks are 4th in the league in defending the 3's and the 6th in ft shooting. The magic are dead last. To be honest, I am still uneasy about this series.

[ball junkie 277]

Suheal (Tracy, California)

John do you think that the Orlando Magic can upset the Chicago Bulls in the second round?

 

John Hollinger (2:38 PM)

That's a sneaky-good series to me, I'll talk more about it tomorrow but the Magic match up pretty well against Chicago ... if they can get past the Hawks. It pretty much sums up the Magic's bizarreness that a match-up against the Hawks worries them nearly as much as one with the Bulls.

 

 

GO MAGIC !!!!!

[VCplusD12 91]

ECF: Boston vs Orlando

 

It's written in the stars

 

THIS IS OUR YEARRRRRRRRRRRRR

[ball junkie 277]

Austin Link of TeamRankings.com dived into historical postseason data to identify teams in the 2011 NBA playoffs that are more likely to outperform or underperform expectations based on their regular-season performance.

 

In the end, two factors stood out: pace of play and production from the center position. Drawing from the statistical relationships he uncovered, Link created the OP score (overperformance score) for each of this season's playoff teams. Using OP scores and other inferences from his data analysis, the following three myth-busting predictions for the NBA playoffs came to light.

 

EASTERN CONFERENCE |

 

The Orlando Magic can win the East

 

If past trends in playoff performance hold, no team stands to benefit more than the Orlando Magic. The Magic figure to gain some from the negative OP scores of their three main opponents for the Eastern crown (the Bulls, Celtics and Heat rank 11th, 13th and 15th, respectively, in OP score among all playoff teams), but the main reason for their bright playoff forecast wears No. 12.

 

Being the best center in the NBA serves Dwight Howard well during the regular season, but his impact becomes magnified in the playoffs. In the past three seasons, Howard's extra influence has paid off powerfully, as the Magic have played 3.2, 3.3 and 2.7 points per game better than average. Even if they improve by only the 1.9 points that the OP score predicts for this postseason, Orlando would vault to the top of TeamRankings' power ratings and become a legitimate NBA title contender as well as the favorite to win the East.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2011/insider/news/story?id=6361329

 

Will post Team Rankings later...

 

GO MAGIC !!!

[JRam027 26]

We have had the most playoff success since '08 other than Boston and LA. We can beat the Bulls. If the Hawks upset us I'll jump out a window. It would suck to not even get the opportunity to take down Chicago.

[Sebi 8]

Nice find junkie.

 

Looking at the past three seasons (2009, 2010, 2011) I can't help but feel like this is the 'worst' (most unpredictable) team we've had. Though at the same time I think we've never had a better chance of reaching the finals than we do this year. I my opinion Miami and Chicago are not quite there yet and Boston should definitely be beatable without Perk in the middle. Will it be easy? - No, but we're having a great opportunity in front of us.

[Mr13A 93]

I can't help but feel like this is the 'worst' (most unpredictable) team we've had.

 

Well I understand the most unpredictable part, but this team is by far the best we've had. Just the fact that our team was still trying to gel during the season, made them look a little shaky but these players collected are the best bunch of individuals we've had. It's just the "team" part I believe needed to be developed. I think it has and it will show during the playoffs.

[Give Me Redick All Day 109]

Well I understand the most unpredictable part, but this team is by far the best we've had. Just the fact that our team was still trying to gel during the season, made them look a little shaky but these players collected are the best bunch of individuals we've had. It's just the "team" part I believe needed to be developed. I think it has and it will show during the playoffs.

 

I really do love your optimism. I wish I felt the same. But, we'll see how the boys do. I hope for the best, prepare for the worst.