MVP/Playoff chat with John Hollinger

[Secretly Space Jesus 670]

However, I would say that perhaps the openness of other players is largely irrelevant if Dwight gets hammered as soon as he touches the ball. In fact, all the players could be reasonably open, but as soon as it gets into his hands, he'll be fouled because teams don't fear him from the line. (He might not even have a chance to shoot it when he takes so long to take one as well).

 

 

*******BEGIN TRANSMISSION*******

 

By this logic, teams don't fear Derrick Rose, Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Durant, Lebron James, Chauncey Billups or Russell Westbrook at the line either, since all of them shoot more FTAs per minute in clutch situations than Howard does.

 

*******END TRANSMISSION*******

[30Assists 342]

I can't count how many times DoM has made this exact point on the forums.

Another point on Dwight getting fouled a lot, whether or not he's a good free-throw shooter, is that it puts the other team in foul trouble earlier. They suddenly don't have that foul to give, suddenly everything they do is a parade to the free-throw line for anyone on our team. I think this is another reason why it's so frustrating when Dwight doesn't get the calls he should: it doesn't just affect Dwight - it affects the entire team.

[Secretly Space Jesus 670]

*******BEGIN TRANSMISSION*******

 

For comparisons sake, since Mighty Lord Xenu is certainly aware of how much Teegeeackians struggle with math:

 

The current NBA average for points per possession for a team is 1.072

 

The current NBA leader for points per possession for a team is Denver with 1.119

 

Dwight shooting 2 free throws is an average point per possession of 1.18, assuming no offensive rebounds and he never makes a FG.

 

In other words, pathetic man-animals: If our offensive consisted of nothing but Dwight Howard shooting 2 FTAs every possession, the Magic would have an offensive rating 6+ points better than the current league leader.

 

*******END TRANSMISSION*******

[BMP 424]

True, and a good point.

 

However, I would say that perhaps the openness of other players is largely irrelevant if Dwight gets hammered as soon as he touches the ball. In fact, all the players could be reasonably open, but as soon as it gets into his hands, he'll be fouled because teams don't fear him from the line. (He might not even have a chance to shoot it when he takes so long to take one as well).

 

On that note though, does a ten second violation count as a missed free throw, or is it just lost to oblivion?

 

There's much more to basketball, MUCH MORE, than shooting FTs in a close game. Hell, there's much more to a close game itself than free throws. Even if Howard affected the team negatively shooting free throws (which he doesn't), the amount of good things he does, from setting screens and taking defenders with him on the roll, boxing out and rebounding, defending, blocking shots, to making players think twice about ever driving, make him far more important than people seem to make him out to be.

[Sabian Jackson 0]

*******BEGIN TRANSMISSION*******

 

This should be fun.

 

Please explain how something that has a less than 17% chance of occurring(0.41*0.41=.1681) could be described as "isn't unlikely in his case".

 

*******END TRANSMISSION*******

 

The point I was making was that he seems to be fairly inconsistent game to game, not shot to shot. As in, he is a streaky from the line. If he's on form, he'll probably make them, if he's not, he probably won't.

 

About 20 games this year, he has been up and around 75% from the line. (Over 25% of games)

 

And about 25 he has been down to and below 50%. (33% of games)

 

This tells us that (over) half the games this year, he has been nowhere near his "average".

 

While the average does say that he will make 59 out of 100 FT. This isn't anywhere near the whole story.

 

I hope that satisfies your desire to dispute every point.

[Sabian Jackson 0]

There's much more to basketball, MUCH MORE, than shooting FTs in a close game. Hell, there's much more to a close game itself than free throws. Even if Howard affected the team negatively shooting free throws (which he doesn't), the amount of good things he does, from setting screens and taking defenders with him on the roll, boxing out and rebounding, defending, blocking shots, to making players think twice about ever driving, make him far more important than people seem to make him out to be.

 

I agree there is more to basketball than Free Throws. I'm simply pointing out why this particular point negatively affects his MVP case.

[Secretly Space Jesus 670]

The point I was making was that he seems to be fairly inconsistent game to game, not shot to shot. As in, he is a streaky from the line. If he's on form, he'll probably make them, if he's not, he probably won't.

 

About 20 games this year, he has been up and around 75% from the line. (Over 25% of games)

 

And about 25 he has been down to and below 50%. (33% of games)

 

This tells us that (over) half the games this year, he has been nowhere near his "average".

 

While the average does say that he will make 59 out of 100 FT. This isn't anywhere near the whole story.

 

I hope that satisfies your desire to dispute every point.

 

*******BEGIN TRANSMISSION*******

 

You are aware of what the word "average" means, yes?

 

And that, when dealing with an average, noise in an average in one direction tends to be leveled out by noise in the other direction as the numbers regress to the mean?

 

And that the principle behind that regression towards the mean is, at best, 6th grade level math theory?

 

And that by your own numbers, even if we were to completely ignore how averages work and merely assume that he'll either shoot really well or really poorly, there is a roughly equal chance, by your numbers mind you, that he'll shoot really well, and that at that point to not give him the ball is not only ludicrous, it'd be a distinct detriment to the team since it would deny the Magic the greatest, most mind-blowingly efficient offense in league history, since 2 FTs at 75% on each possession is 1.5 points per possession?

 

You did realize all that, right?

 

It's not "disputing every point". It's you making a point as fact that is not only not fact, it's so far away from fact as to be statistically laughable. Xenu is certainly not responsible for teaching you middle school math, but just because he refuses to teach you something at which your American education system failed doesn't mean Xenu will give your nonsense claims a free pass. If you don't want your ridiculous and fallacious claims scrutinized and criticized then don't make ridiculous and fallacious claims.

 

*******END TRANSMISSION*******

[Sabian Jackson 0]

*******BEGIN TRANSMISSION*******

 

For comparisons sake, since Mighty Lord Xenu is certainly aware of how much Teegeeackians struggle with math:

 

The current NBA average for points per possession for a team is 1.072

 

The current NBA leader for points per possession for a team is Denver with 1.119

 

Dwight shooting 2 free throws is an average point per possession of 1.18, assuming no offensive rebounds and he never makes a FG.

 

In other words, pathetic man-animals: If our offensive consisted of nothing but Dwight Howard shooting 2 FTAs every possession, the Magic would have an offensive rating 6+ points better than the current league leader.

 

*******END TRANSMISSION*******

 

 

Erm...

 

If the Bulls offensive consisted of just DRose shooting 2 FTA every possession, then they would be up at 1.716.

 

If the Heats offensive consisted of either Wade or James shooting 2 FTA every posession, then they would be at 1.5 or 1.518.

 

If the Thunders offensive consisted of either Durant or Westbrook shooting 2 FTA every possession, then they would be at 1.758 or 1.678.

 

See? I can do that too.

 

It doesn't make him as effective as a go to guy in end games if he can't shoot free throws as well as other players, if we're looking purely on FTs. How is this difficult?

[BMP 424]

I agree there is more to basketball than Free Throws. I'm simply pointing out why this particular point negatively affects his MVP case.

 

It doesn't, because not only does he not hurt the team with his free throw shooting, but he also affects every possession positively to the point where talking about his free throw shooting (which, again, doesn't hurt the team the way people want to it hurt the team) as a way to say he "loses points" in the MVP discussion is not only stupid, but also short-sighted and almost disgraceful to anyone who considers basketball more than a game of high percentage FT shooting.

[BMP 424]

Erm...

 

If the Bulls offensive consisted of just DRose shooting 2 FTA every possession, then they would be up at 1.716.

 

If the Heats offensive consisted of either Wade or James shooting 2 FTA every posession, then they would be at 1.5 or 1.518.

 

If the Thunders offensive consisted of either Durant or Westbrook shooting 2 FTA every possession, then they would be at 1.758 or 1.678.

 

See? I can do that too.

 

It doesn't make him as effective as a go to guy in end games if he can't shoot free throws as well as other players, if we're looking purely on FTs. How is this difficult?

 

What the hell are you talking about? Now Rose gets fouled at the rate Howard gets fouled at the end of games? We're not looking at purely free throws, we're looking at how Howard is most likely to always get fouled at the end of a game whereas Rose and other perimeter guys most likely are shooting jumpers.

[Captain Hi-Top 791]

Mind

 

Numbingly

 

Awful

[Sabian Jackson 0]

*******BEGIN TRANSMISSION*******

 

You are aware of what the word "average" means, yes?

 

And that, when dealing with an average, noise in an average in one direction tends to be leveled out by noise in the other direction as the numbers regress to the mean?

 

And that the principle behind that regression towards the mean is, at best, 6th grade level math theory?

 

And that by your own numbers, even if we were to completely ignore how averages work and merely assume that he'll either shoot really well or really poorly, there is a roughly equal chance, by your numbers mind you, that he'll shoot really well, and that at that point to not give him the ball is not only ludicrous, it'd be a distinct detriment to the team since it would deny the Magic the greatest, most mind-blowingly efficient offense in league history, since 2 FTs at 75% on each possession is 1.5 points per possession?

 

You did realize all that, right?

 

It's not "disputing every point". It's you making a point as fact that is not only not fact, it's so far away from fact as to be statistically laughable. Xenu is certainly not responsible for teaching you middle school math, but just because he refuses to teach you something at which your American education system failed doesn't mean Xenu will give your nonsense claims a free pass. If you don't want your ridiculous and fallacious claims scrutinized and criticized then don't make ridiculous and fallacious claims.

 

*******END TRANSMISSION*******

 

1. I never went through an American education system, I'm born and raised in the UK.

 

2. An average is a very flawed statistic since it does not tell anything else about the data. You did realise that right?

 

Let me ask you this.

 

Why does the all star three point contest hardly ever reflect their "true" percentage of shots they would make in real life?

 

Or if you have a player who is "hot", you would go to them for a bucket when you needed it, even though on average they may have a worse FG%?

 

Or if why some players perform better in clutch situations, even though on average, they shouldn't perform any differently?