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Mr13A

Let's discuss our playoff odds

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Except they haven't shown that they can really stop Dwight now, have they? He has really stepped up this season, which is why I said they have bodies to throw at him and keep him on the foul line. They won't double on Dwight, even if he is going off, unless it's late in a close game and they send double teams to fluster and send him to the line because their bigs are in foul trouble.

They don't need to: they've shown they're capable of stopping everyone else. In fact, Boston kind of created the blueprint on "how to beat Orlando:" single up on Dwight, close on the outside shooters. Lately (last five games), our guys have started to get a little more aggressive about driving to the hole and Dwight's been playing lights out.

 

Boston also has about, what? 18 fouls? they can throw at Dwight. Given how often our big guy actually GETS those calls, especially against Boston...

 

I mean, I'm having a hard time remembering a time when anyone in Celtics green fouled out guarding Dwight. Maybe Glenn Davis. Once. And that's when Shaq and Perkins were out.

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They don't need to: they've shown they're capable of stopping everyone else. In fact, Boston kind of created the blueprint on "how to beat Orlando:" single up on Dwight, close on the outside shooters. Lately (last five games), our guys have started to get a little more aggressive about driving to the hole and Dwight's been playing lights out.

 

Boston also has about, what? 18 fouls? they can throw at Dwight. Given how often our big guy actually GETS those calls, especially against Boston...

 

I mean, I'm having a hard time remembering a time when anyone in Celtics green fouled out guarding Dwight. Maybe Glenn Davis. Once. And that's when Shaq and Perkins were out.

 

Now you're just repeating my position back to me. Which was, Boston doesn't need to double team Dwight. They don't care how many points he gets, they can keep fouling him and concentrate on everyone else. That's why it's up to Stan to game plan ways to get Nelson free, and up to Hedo to use his advantages to keep feeding Dwight the ball and bother Pierce.

 

Really, I just said all this a couple of posts ago.

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The Herd picked the Knicks to make it to the ECF VS Boston. Ridiculous. Here I am complaining about the Magic defense and you got radio hosts picking one of the worst defensive teams in the East to get to the ECF. The Knicks are WORSE defensively then they were yesterday and until they get defenders to surround Amare and Melo, they're not going anywhere in a 7-game series. I don't care if they end uo getting Paul too. What makes Miami dangerous is their defense. Wade and Lebron play good defense. Melo and Amare? No. First round and out for the Knicks.

 

I hope that the Magic defense improves dramatically. I believe it can and will.

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Changes have been made, therefore they need to be discussed in this thread :)

 

Obviously the Celtics lost their main big man and it will be interesting to see how this affects future games against teams who still have their dominant centres.

But for us this could be quite a big advantage. Yes they still have Shaq but he is damn slow when defending pick and rolls and defending Dwight's moves down low. On the other hand, Glen Davis can still do all the things Shaq can't, but he is undersized which will give us a great rebounding advantage, especially offensively (even shaq's inability to jump might give us an advantage). Also Shaq picks up fouls against us very quickly.

 

The heat on the other hand, are only able to beat sub .600~ teams right now, usually get beaten in very close games because of their bad coaching and their inability to make plays down the stretch. They rank 29th in assists due to their lack of ball movement and LeBron's ball hogging. Dwade and Bosh have no idea how to move off the ball and the heat rely on isolations and jumpshots. Two very bad factors for a playoff team. Put some good Chicago D on them and watch them burn.

Last game we played against them was a one time thing. We had pretty bad defense by the end of the half and players did not feel energetic what so ever. Lebron had a lucky night and went off on us. We had a lucky ending by cutting the margin down to 3 and sitll having a chance to tie. I'd say the two cancel out and it was still a pretty close game :)

 

I have no comment for Chicago. We aren't likely to face them so they aren't much of a problem.

 

So how does all of this change our playoff odds? Discuss or ban.

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Chances improve against the Celtics. I would say the Heat still have an advantage against the Magic due to their perimeter players' athleticism. I don't think that's a one time thing at all. Their defense wasn't.. anyway.

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Chances improve against the Celtics. I would say the Heat still have an advantage against the Magic due to their perimeter players' athleticism. I don't think that's a one time thing at all. Their defense wasn't.. anyway.

 

Still a lot of basketball left. The top 3 could be in any order and we could be anywhere from 3rd to 5th realistically. The Knicks could also fall to 7th.

 

Its still a few weeks too early to talk about who we might be facing in the 2nd round. Whoever plays the knicks or the hawks in the first round doesn't have an instant ticket punched for the 2nd round.

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There are chances Bulls will be number one in the East, then we play Celtics/Heat winner in ECF, preferably Celtics, they will be tired (games every second day) and we advance to Finals.

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