Magic Going All In For Chris Paul's Backup?

[Skywise316 211]

How can Magic fans, who witnessed first hand how JJ Redick improved his game season after season, and reduced his flaws to more manageable levels, NOT think that Nicholson can improve as well? That a rookie in the NBA cannot grow, that's what we're trying to say? Man, we shouldda dumped JJ years ago then. That dude could only shoot 3s. Couldn't defend a cardboard cutout. What a bum.

 

Which is what 95 percent (or more) of what fans on this forum were saying. Boy were they wrong. Not to mention the standard he was held to from early on- he was the 11th pick in what almost all of us thought was a weak draft, but he was treated around here like he was a top five pick or something. As in, he better basically be Ray Allen right away or he was a bust.

 

I love when people say that players under 25 "are what they are" and "can't improve." Back in my day *breaks out his cane* NBA playersstayed all four years in college and most rookies were 22, 23 years old. None of those guys got better after their first year or two, huh?

 

I am not really sure why everyone is so gung-ho for Eric Bledsoe. I admit I haven't seen a lot of him...

 

I admit I didn't read a lot after that. How else can you judge a bench player other than watch him? And for the record, thanks to being a mega Chris Paul fan, I've seen more than my fair share of Clipper games the last couple of years, especially last year.

 

Bhnole I don't know about easily a top ten PG, that's probably his absolute ceiling, but better and younger than Jameer at this point? Hells to the yeah.

[magicblue 315]

If you put any stock into Hollinger stats (which I do) Bledsoe was the 15th ranked PG with a 17.6 PER. Higher than Nash, Holliday, Lillard, George Hill, Brandon Jennings among many others.

 

Jameer and Beno had PER's in the 14 range.

 

Given he is young and will improve he could easily be a top 10 PG in this league.

 

I guarantee you Henny knows this. I don't know much about "per"...is it influenced by minutes played or lack thereof? In other words if Bledsoe's production per minute stayed exactly at his averages, would his per rise with his per game averages as his minutes increase or would it stay the same? Example: if a player scores 2pts, records 1 rebound, 1 steal and 1 block in one extremely hectic minute played, would his per be artificially inflated?

[Tom Servo 7]

Surely that's a sign he's not moving.

 

Tbh a guy with his character, intelligence and offensive game isn't someone I want to trade when he's only a year into his career.

+1

[Drain-O 369]

Numbers LOL. This team won 20 games last year. Stats are not really relevant. And I do like Nicholson but lets not pretend Rob could not find someone who has a similar skill set. It would not be giving up. It would be giving up something to get something. I would definitely not include a pick but if we have to throw in AN I would not be heartbroken.

[jmmagicfan 302]

Just looking at the numbers isn't the best way to analyze the trade (if it indeed happens) in my opinion. PG is a position of need for this team moving forward and Bledsoe is primed to break out this season. The guy is not a natural PG and is probably never going to average more than 6-7apg, but he's played behind one of the best PG's in the league and under a PG (hopefully two soon!) so I think that will serve him well also. My question still is...does he start or continue to play a reserve role? In LA with Chris Paul it was a no-brainer, but in Orlando I think you could make the argument this guy deserves a shot for starters minutes. Regardless, I see his offensive production being on par with the per 36 numbers you provided (albeit adjusted to less minutes because he won't play 36 per). Earlier someone mentioned Jrue Holiday and I think that may be a fair comparison (only Bledsoe is much more explosive) at least in terms of offensive impact.

 

Where Bledsoe really excels though is defensively. The guy is a freak athlete and, in my opinion, has the skills to be highly disruptive on the defensive end. I guess ultimately the way I see it is this...by the time we're ready to compete, Afflalo is going to be pushing 30 and exiting his prime, while Bledsoe will be right in his prime.

 

I agree that PG is a position of need moving forward, I was just saying that, as a PG he doesn't exactly blow me away with his numbers. The 5.4 assists and 3.2 turnovers per 36 minutes scare me for a primary ball-handler. To put that into perspective, JJ Redick was averaging 5.0 assists and 2.4 turnovers per 36 minutes for us before he was traded. Jameer was averaging 7.4 assists and 2.2 turnovers in 35.3 minutes. Bledsoe is more athletic and a better defender than either, no question - but his PG skills are not top 10 yet, and may not ever be.

 

I do look at Bledsoe as more of a combo guard, and I can see a Nelson/Bledsoe backcourt in some situations. I also think that he can help take some of the minutes off Nelson and extend his career. My point though, is that for the next year it is kind of a sideways move. Talent wise, it isn't really much of an upgrade. Say what you want about AA, but he has improved every single year, he is extremely driven as a player, and he hates to lose. Bledsoe had a down 2nd season, but rebounded/improved in his third. I don't remember if that was due to injury, but from the number of games played, I think it might have been. I think depending on what you are giving up it could be a reasonable move for both teams. When you start throwing in any 1st round draft pick from the Magic, I think the loss begins to outweigh the gains.

 

You do make a very good point about the age lining up better with our "competing" window, but forgot that he only has a year left before becoming a restricted free agent. If he does have a "breakout" year as you hope, we probably won't get as high a draft pick as we want in 2014; and we might not be able to afford to keep him either.

 

Having said all that, I still think Bledsoe/Butler for AA/Jones, Lamb, or Nicholson is a reasonable move; I just draw the line at including a 1st round draft pick.

[jmmagicfan 302]

I admit I didn't read a lot after that. How else can you judge a bench player other than watch him? And for the record, thanks to being a mega Chris Paul fan, I've seen more than my fair share of Clipper games the last couple of years, especially last year.

 

Bhnole I don't know about easily a top ten PG, that's probably his absolute ceiling, but better and younger than Jameer at this point? Hells to the yeah.

 

I probably only saw 5-6 Clippers games during the regular season and a couple of the playoffs - I don't consider that enough to judge him fully; which is why I referred to the numbers. What I saw is a good, young guard who plays good defense, works hard on the glass, and has decent shot mechanics. What I also saw was a kid who probably played more SG in college, and is "converting" to play more PG in the pros. He seems to take some chances on defense, and doesn't have the best handle. When I went to look at his stats, they seem to bear out what I was seeing in limited time.

 

14.9 points per 36 min, 44.5% FG, 39.7% 3P, 79.1% FT - decent shot mechanics

5.2 Rebounds, 1.3 blocks, 2.5 steals (all per 36 min) - good defense, works hard on the glass, takes some chances on defense

3.2 turnovers per 36 min - doesn't have the best handle.

 

Again, I am not against this move; I just don't think we should give up too much - and including a 1st round pick in 2014 or 2015 is too much in my opinion.

[TreyMachine 399]

He adjusted Bledsoe's numbers to 36 per averages

 

Saw that after I posted. Nonetheless, then we start talking about "roles." Afflalo was supposed to be a scorer and was looked at until Tobias Harris came along as the 1st or at least 2nd scoring option. Bledsoe, on the other hand, was supposed to play facilitator naturally on a team that had a plethora of bench talent (Jamal Crawford, Caron Butler, etc).

 

You cannot by any means make this a numbers game. It's like saying Jamal Crawford scores more than Shane Battier and therefore is better. In reality, I would take Battier any day of the week over Crawford because he brings things to the table that stats cannot quantify. Not only that, but we do not know how he would respond should he be put in a leadership role under a PG coach with a humble, hard-working PG ahead of him in Jameer Nelson.

[magicblue 315]

I agree that PG is a position of need moving forward, I was just saying that, as a PG he doesn't exactly blow me away with his numbers. The 5.4 assists and 3.2 turnovers per 36 minutes scare me for a primary ball-handler. To put that into perspective, JJ Redick was averaging 5.0 assists and 2.4 turnovers per 36 minutes for us before he was traded.

 

I do look at Bledsoe as more of a combo guard, and I can see a Nelson/Bledsoe backcourt in some situations. I also think that he can help take some of the minutes off Nelson and extend his career. My point though, is that for the next year it is kind of a sideways move. Talent wise, it isn't really much of an upgrade. Say what you want about AA, but he has improved every single year, he is extremely driven as a player, and he hates to lose. Bledsoe had a down 2nd season, but rebounded/improved in his third. I don't remember if that was due to injury, but from the number of games played, I think it might have been. I think depending on what you are giving up it could be a reasonable move for both teams. When you start throwing in any 1st round draft pick from the Magic, I think the loss begins to outweigh the gains.

 

You do make a very good point about the age lining up better with our "competing" window, but forgot that he only has a year left before becoming a restricted free agent. If he does have a "breakout" year as you hope, we probably won't get as high a draft pick as we want in 2014; and we might not be able to afford to keep him either.

 

Having said all that, I still think Bledsoe/Butler for AA/Jones, Lamb, or Nicholson is a reasonable move; I just draw the line at including a 1st round draft pick.

 

We'll definitely be able to afford him (whether we opt to extend or re-sign him is another question) with AA gone and Turk/Al expiring or at least partially coming off the books. In order to break out he's going to need minutes and I agree this is probably a way to extend Jameer's career, which is not really a high priority, but accurate nonetheless. Regardless of whether he breaks out or not we're still going to struggle next year, so I wouldn't worry too much about 2014 draft implications. I agree, it may be a lateral move in terms of losing AA's production and gaining Bledsoe's but, in my opinion, its the way he fits in beyond this season that is important, not next season in particular.

[Skywise316 211]

The end result is I agree.. one of our young players outside of Harkless/Harris/Vujacic is one thing, but once picks start getting involved is another and definitely more weary of that.

 

Nicholson? Fine.

 

A protected pick or maybe the Philly pick? Fine.

 

Jones or Lamb PLUS a pick? Ehhhhh fine.

 

Nicholson plus a pick? Not feeling that.

 

All this pick stuff, I hope, is just smoke and b.s. from the Clips side of things.

[TreyMachine 399]

I probably only saw 5-6 Clippers games during the regular season and a couple of the playoffs - I don't consider that enough to judge him fully; which is why I referred to the numbers. What I saw is a good, young guard who plays good defense, works hard on the glass, and has decent shot mechanics. What I also saw was a kid who probably played more SG in college, and is "converting" to play more PG in the pros. He seems to take some chances on defense, and doesn't have the best handle. When I went to look at his stats, they seem to bear out what I was seeing in limited time.

 

14.9 points per 36 min, 44.5% FG, 39.7% 3P, 79.1% FT - decent shot mechanics

5.2 Rebounds, 1.3 blocks, 2.5 steals (all per 36 min) - good defense, works hard on the glass, takes some chances on defense

3.2 turnovers per 36 min - doesn't have the best handle.

 

Again, I am not against this move; I just don't think we should give up too much - and including a 1st round pick in 2014 or 2015 is too much in my opinion.

 

This in particular if we're going to not be making the playoffs the next two seasons. Notice how the Thunder and Spurs hardly ever trade draft picks. If anything, they trade away proven players who want too much money. I think the 1st round pick will ultimately be too much for the Clippers to ask for.

[ILoveOrlandoMagic 12]

Andrew and Aaron for Drew and Carson is more than a fair trade to me

 

Giving up a future first is too much and I hope the Magic will not go for it

[magicblue 315]

I probably only saw 5-6 Clippers games during the regular season and a couple of the playoffs - I don't consider that enough to judge him fully; which is why I referred to the numbers. What I saw is a good, young guard who plays good defense, works hard on the glass, and has decent shot mechanics. What I also saw was a kid who probably played more SG in college, and is "converting" to play more PG in the pros. He seems to take some chances on defense, and doesn't have the best handle. When I went to look at his stats, they seem to bear out what I was seeing in limited time.

 

14.9 points per 36 min, 44.5% FG, 39.7% 3P, 79.1% FT - decent shot mechanics

5.2 Rebounds, 1.3 blocks, 2.5 steals (all per 36 min) - good defense, works hard on the glass, takes some chances on defense

3.2 turnovers per 36 min - doesn't have the best handle.

 

Again, I am not against this move; I just don't think we should give up too much - and including a 1st round pick in 2014 or 2015 is too much in my opinion.

 

I don't think anyone disagrees with this at all. Nicholson is about as far as I'd go, except for maybe a heavily protected 2015 pick. Its been mentioned before, LA needs to make this deal more than we do. When Henny calls them up on draft day and says its AA/Nicholson or we're trading down and taking Burke, I'm fairly confident LA will bite. I'm a little surprised there's not more interest in Bledsoe, lets hope that lasts another 48hrs