2016-2017 Season Discussion Thread

[Mauro Pedrosa 1,032]

DETROIT AND ATLANTA LOST AT HOME TO WESTERN CONFERENCE TEAMS

 

PLAYOFFS BABY LET'S GO

[Mauro Pedrosa 1,032]

If we were in the western conference, we'd be in the playoffs today! Or, we have the 10th pick in the draft in the east...take your pick.

I'll take the playoffs

[Franchero MVP 391]

I'll take the playoffs

 

Definitely ...we need to look respectable and give our young guys playoff experience

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

No point guard is what he is less than halfway into his third season, not a single one. He's 22. It's fine to have an opinion on where he's at today but to say he is what he is at this point is nothing short of ridiculous. Especially since he's been playing very well of late, 16/7/3 on bench time is not bad at all.

 

If you want to have hope, it's Mike Conley was Payton like in year 3.

 

 

Buuut he was also a good shooter.

 

 

If you want to be skeptical, you point to Rubio who has a few high level parts of his game but a lack of shooting and floating through games made him a flawed player. It's year 6 of rubio and he basically is what he was in year 1 or 2

[Murphy13 185]

Rubio is an interesting case because he started pro ball at 17 I believe and probably did most of his developing before he got to the NBA. I'm not going to lie, I'm disappointed in his trajectory though. Usually someone of his skillset picks up a 3pt shot or something to improve his scoring. Really that's all that is missing from him is a way to score more. He's a career 10/8 guy, which is better than average. If he was a career 15/8 guy he would be looked at in a completely different light.

 

Payton is better than Conley was at his age in everything but shooting. Payton has a lot going for him, IF he improves like most pg's do with age, he will be a very good pg-better than Conley.

[Murphy13 185]

Watching the Sacto game, Cousins is having a bad game but he can play. I like him. I like Gordon Hayward better, that guy is seriously one of the best players in the league.

[Franchero MVP 391]

Aaron Gordon's Ascension Is Short-Circuiting in Orlando

 

As encouraging as all that sounds—and as much credit as Gordon deserves for a complete buy-in to moving from the post to the perimeter—this process isn't what it seems.

 

He is not a small forward; he just plays one for the Magic.

 

.............

 

"If Serge Ibaka wasn't here, Aaron Gordon would be my power forward," Vogel told ESPN.com's Zach Lowe in July. "But Serge is here."

 

.............

 

Hence why you'll see Gordon—as fans did before Orlando's 136-130 double-overtime win over the Miami Heat on Tuesday—racing through a crash course on playing NBA wing. Rather than capitalizing on the talents that got him to the league, he's trying to hone new ones for a foreign role.

 

His stat sheet paints a grim picture of the transformation.

 

While a few counting categories are up because of a personal best in playing time, his efficiency numbers are falling across the board.

 

.............

 

His player efficiency rating jumped from below average (11.4) to well above it (17.0). He tied for 62nd in win shares per 48 minutes (.139) among the 274 players to log at least 1,000 minutes.

 

But this year, he's back below mediocrity in PER (12.3). And he's only 170th in win shares per 48 minutes (career-worst .048) among 208 qualified players (minimum 500 minutes).

 

He's in the bottom 50th percentile of finishers as an isolation player (0.79 points per possession, 41.4 percentile) and pick-and-roll ball-handler (0.38, 4.0). His field-goal percentage plummets from 47.9 to 34.2 when he possesses the ball for at least two seconds.

..............

 

The roster requires restructuring to put him back at his best position: He's a power forward by trade, and the Magic should treat him as such. Assuming he moves back to his natural post at some point, a lot of what he's struggling to learn now might be discarded later on.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2683146-aaron-gordons-ascension-is-short-circuiting-in-orlando

[Justin Jaudon 221]

No point guard is what he is less than halfway into his third season, not a single one. He's 22. It's fine to have an opinion on where he's at today but to say he is what he is at this point is nothing short of ridiculous. Especially since he's been playing very well of late, 16/7/3 on bench time is not bad at all.

 

I think you missed my point. He will improve the way most guys do. But most guys don't suddenly start playing with consistent effort. It's not really a learned skill. If he were 20 years old, I'd say maybe he's just learning the game and he's not comfortable going all out. He's in season 3 in the league, and he's nearly 23 years old. That's too old for that excuse.

 

And Payton is nowhere near the player Conley was the season he turned 23. Conley was waaaaay more consistent, for one. Hell, he was a statistically better player in almost every way. But go back a year, with Conley nearly a year younger, and I agree their numbers hold some consistency. But Conley was still more consistent. And he could shoot. For Payton to ever be a better player than Mike Conley he would have to develop a consistent jump shot, and suddenly start playing with consistent effort. I don't hold our much hope for either of those things, with good reason.

 

Those are the two things that make Payton a backup PG, and since I don't expect either of those things to change as drastically as they would need to, I think we can confidently say that Payton is a backup PG. Not just right now, but perpetually. Is there an outside chance he develops a jumpshot and starts bringing it every night? Sure. But I think it's waaaay more likely that Payton is what he is, a backup PG, albeit a good one.

[Murphy13 185]

I think you missed my point. He will improve the way most guys do. But most guys don't suddenly start playing with consistent effort. It's not really a learned skill. If he were 20 years old, I'd say maybe he's just learning the game and he's not comfortable going all out. He's in season 3 in the league, and he's nearly 23 years old. That's too old for that excuse.

 

And Payton is nowhere near the player Conley was the season he turned 23. Conley was waaaaay more consistent, for one. Hell, he was a statistically better player in almost every way. But go back a year, with Conley nearly a year younger, and I agree their numbers hold some consistency. But Conley was still more consistent. And he could shoot. For Payton to ever be a better player than Mike Conley he would have to develop a consistent jump shot, and suddenly start playing with consistent effort. I don't hold our much hope for either of those things, with good reason.

 

Those are the two things that make Payton a backup PG, and since I don't expect either of those things to change as drastically as they would need to, I think we can confidently say that Payton is a backup PG. Not just right now, but perpetually. Is there an outside chance he develops a jumpshot and starts bringing it every night? Sure. But I think it's waaaay more likely that Payton is what he is, a backup PG, albeit a good one.

 

Payton is 8 months older than Conley in their respective years, meaningless difference. I personally don't see Payton's lack of a 'consistent effort' nearly as much as a few vocal members do here, I think he fits right in with the psyche of the team most of the time. Further, if he does become disengaged for a time, that means absolutely nothing in how he will be as a player down the line nor does it have any bearing on whether he is a starter or not. Watch any of the best players and they each get into funks/look disengaged. It's kind of a poor excuse when you are looking for a reason to dog on a guy when there is little tangible evidence to dog on him with. Last thing about this whole age/consistency/effort stuff, at PG specifically, you have a lot to learn at 22-maybe not QUITE as much as at 20, but still pretty similar. PG's don't peak until their mid-late 20's assuming the typical pro-ball trajectory.

 

I don't know what stats you're looking at or what you remember from Conley in his early years, but Payton is by far the better player compared to Conley in their respective third seasons-it's not even close. Literally, the only thing Conley did better was shoot 3's. We get it, Payton can't shoot threes. If he could, he might be an all star already. Payton is doing what he's doing in nearly 5mpg less than what Conley did too. You're opinion is fine, I'm good with it, your rationale is what doesn't fly.

[Odin 137]

I think you missed my point. He will improve the way most guys do. But most guys don't suddenly start playing with consistent effort. It's not really a learned skill. If he were 20 years old, I'd say maybe he's just learning the game and he's not comfortable going all out. He's in season 3 in the league, and he's nearly 23 years old. That's too old for that excuse.

 

And Payton is nowhere near the player Conley was the season he turned 23. Conley was waaaaay more consistent, for one. Hell, he was a statistically better player in almost every way. But go back a year, with Conley nearly a year younger, and I agree their numbers hold some consistency. But Conley was still more consistent. And he could shoot. For Payton to ever be a better player than Mike Conley he would have to develop a consistent jump shot, and suddenly start playing with consistent effort. I don't hold our much hope for either of those things, with good reason.

 

Those are the two things that make Payton a backup PG, and since I don't expect either of those things to change as drastically as they would need to, I think we can confidently say that Payton is a backup PG. Not just right now, but perpetually. Is there an outside chance he develops a jumpshot and starts bringing it every night? Sure. But I think it's waaaay more likely that Payton is what he is, a backup PG, albeit a good one.

 

Only that Conley wasn't statistically better in every way than Payton in year 3. Payton beats him in pretty much every statistical category except scoring efficiency.

 

Advanced stats

 

PER WS/48 BPM VORP

 

Payton 15.8 .080 .3 .5

Conley 13.9 .074 -.7 .8

 

So, out of the advanced stats as well, 3 out of the 4 point to 3rd year Payton as being better than 3rd year Conley.

 

As for consistency, Payton is definitely less consistent, but in being less consistent, he is more likely to have a good game than 3rd year Conley, but he is also more likely to have a bad game.

 

Not saying Payton is going to end up being any good, but Conley was certainly not "a statistically better player in almost every way". I think you are forgetting how forgettable third year Conley was and are allowing your frustration with Payton to cloud your ability to look at him objectively.

[Justin Jaudon 221]

Only that Conley wasn't statistically better in every way than Payton in year 3. Payton beats him in pretty much every statistical category except scoring efficiency.

 

Advanced stats

 

PER WS/48 BPM VORP

 

Payton 15.8 .080 .3 .5

Conley 13.9 .074 -.7 .8

 

So, out of the advanced stats as well, 3 out of the 4 point to 3rd year Payton as being better than 3rd year Conley.

 

As for consistency, Payton is definitely less consistent, but in being less consistent, he is more likely to have a good game than 3rd year Conley, but he is also more likely to have a bad game.

 

Not saying Payton is going to end up being any good, but Conley was certainly not "a statistically better player in almost every way". I think you are forgetting how forgettable third year Conley was and are allowing your frustration with Payton to cloud your ability to look at him objectively.

 

Didn't say third year Conley was better. I specifically said they were very similar except that Conley could shoot and was more consistent. What I said, and what people seem to forget, is that 3rd year Conley was nearly a year younger than Elfrid Payton. I said Conley was considerably better the season he turned 23. I mentioned both seasons specifically because their ages line up oddly.

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

everybody makes good points.