2016 Off-Season Thread

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

It isn't enough, though his career average is 18.7 PPG so he is a capable scorer. In Dallas he was putting up 19 PPG as their number #2 option behind Dirk in his first season, and was perhaps their number #3 option in his second year behind Dirk and Parsons. But in Dallas he was attempting more shots, so maybe his role in Dallas was more expansive than the role he is being asked to play in Indiana, and that has accounted for the fall in his PPG?

 

From bits I've seen of the Pacers this season I think they are pretty much set at PG (Hill), SG (Ellis), SF (George), and perhaps PF/C (Turner).

 

If I was looking at who their likely targets could be, I would say Al Horford would be a good fit because he's a good two way player and would give them another scoring option, plus he's added the 3 point shot this season. Another option could be Pau Gasol, he's still a very effective player. Then there is always Dwight Howard, who might not be the Dwight Howard he was in Orlando, but he's still a good player and would slot into their front court pretty well. And one final one if he leaves Miami is Hassan Whiteside, he could offer them an excellent shot blocker and rebounder, and the offensive side of his game is improving. If they decide that Turner is better at center, then perhaps they could go after Ryan Anderson to give them a stretch four and another scoring option. But I agree with you, I think they need another big because they have the pieces set at other positions, though Mike Conley would give them a potential upgrade at PG and let them use Hill off the bench. I guess I could see DeRozan slotting in at SG and them moving Ellis to sixth man duty, but I think a big would be a better for them.

 

monta isn't that 18.9 ppg guy anymore. he's actually been in a constant state of decline since 2010-2011. 24.1 ppg to 20.4 to 19.2 to 19 to 18.9 to 13.8.

 

He aint having a revival next year at his age 31 season.

 

but yeah, Anderson might be their top option definitely.

[Justin Jaudon 221]

As for Conley; I love his game, but I worry about the tendonitis. Aside from that he is exactly what this team needs. But I really do worry that when tendonitis starts becoming a problem it seems to stay one.

[HeHateMe 697]

I like Conley, and he would be a huge improvement over Payton. But it's probably gonna take a max offer ($25M/yr) to get him. That would equate to 27% of next year's cap space for a role player at best.

 

Yea Conley much more than a role player. He would be a leader on and off the court for this team. I would be willing to give him that because I really think he would make this team very competitive especially if you throw in a Horford or Batum with him. The tendinitis stuff would for sure need to be cleared before we invest that kind of money in him though. But he's been a pretty rock solid player that doesn't miss a lot of time his entire career.

[Mike1989 68]

monta isn't that 18.9 ppg guy anymore. he's actually been in a constant state of decline since 2010-2011. 24.1 ppg to 20.4 to 19.2 to 19 to 18.9 to 13.8.

 

He aint having a revival next year at his age 31 season.

 

but yeah, Anderson might be their top option definitely.

 

Monta Ellis has always had a reputation of being a chucker, whose game was based on high volume, poor shot selection and average efficiency. He has always been a streaky player through his years in the league. Now I wouldn't expect a revival next season, but there's no reason he cannot continue to perform at the same level he has done this season in Indiana, but I wouldn't be surprised if he could boost his ppg back into the mid to late teens with more shots. When you look at his stats, part of the reason for his decline in ppg is that generally his fga has declined year-to-year:

 

2010-11 - GSW - 20.1 FGA per game and 40.3 minutes, 24.1 ppg

2011-12 - GSW - 19.0 FGA per game and 36.9 minutes, 21.9 ppg

2011-12 - MIL - 16.0 FGA per game and 36.0 minutes, 17.6 ppg

2012-13 - MIL - 17.5 FGA per game and 37.5 minutes, 19.2 ppg

2013-14 - DAL - 15.6 FGA per game and 36.9 minutes, 19.0 ppg

2014-15 - DAL - 16.9 FGA per game and 33.7 minutes, 18.9 ppg

2015-16 - IND - 12.6 FGA per game and 33.8 minutes, 13.8 ppg

 

He goes from heavy usage in Golden State to remaining a fairly high volume shooter in Milwaukee, but he formed a very inefficient back court with his fellow chucker Brandon Jennings. In Dallas he saw his fga take a hit, but his efficiency went up. This season in Indiana his fga has taken a further hit to the second lowest of his career, problem is his efficiency is way down, but that isn't a surprise for a streaky player. Overall, Monta Ellis is still the same player that Monta Ellis has always been - a chucker and a streaky player whose stats have been boosted by high volume usage. This season he's on a team that doesn't give him as many shots, put him on a team that gives him more shots and that ppg column would likely be nearer to his last few seasons, which since leaving Golden State has remained pretty consistent in the late teens.

[fan for too long 2 536]

to adjust for pace/minutes,

 

Stats per 100 posessions:

 

Oladipo: 24.2 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 5.9 apg

 

Payton: 18.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 10.9 apg

 

Fournier: 23.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 4.2 apg

 

Conley: 25.1 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 10.0 apg

So, conley is +7 Pts. -1.3 rpg. -.9 apg. That's not a big difference. If you convert the rebound and assist into points then basically a one possession difference. For 25 million I will pass!

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

Monta Ellis has always had a reputation of being a chucker, whose game was based on high volume, poor shot selection and average efficiency. He has always been a streaky player through his years in the league. Now I wouldn't expect a revival next season, but there's no reason he cannot continue to perform at the same level he has done this season in Indiana, but I wouldn't be surprised if he could boost his ppg back into the mid to late teens with more shots. When you look at his stats, part of the reason for his decline in ppg is that generally his fga has declined year-to-year:

 

2010-11 - GSW - 20.1 FGA per game and 40.3 minutes, 24.1 ppg

2011-12 - GSW - 19.0 FGA per game and 36.9 minutes, 21.9 ppg

2011-12 - MIL - 16.0 FGA per game and 36.0 minutes, 17.6 ppg

2012-13 - MIL - 17.5 FGA per game and 37.5 minutes, 19.2 ppg

2013-14 - DAL - 15.6 FGA per game and 36.9 minutes, 19.0 ppg

2014-15 - DAL - 16.9 FGA per game and 33.7 minutes, 18.9 ppg

2015-16 - IND - 12.6 FGA per game and 33.8 minutes, 13.8 ppg

 

He goes from heavy usage in Golden State to remaining a fairly high volume shooter in Milwaukee, but he formed a very inefficient back court with his fellow chucker Brandon Jennings. In Dallas he saw his fga take a hit, but his efficiency went up. This season in Indiana his fga has taken a further hit to the second lowest of his career, problem is his efficiency is way down, but that isn't a surprise for a streaky player. Overall, Monta Ellis is still the same player that Monta Ellis has always been - a chucker and a streaky player whose stats have been boosted by high volume usage. This season he's on a team that doesn't give him as many shots, put him on a team that gives him more shots and that ppg column would likely be nearer to his last few seasons, which since leaving Golden State has remained pretty consistent in the late teens.

 

 

He's also become less efficient over time too.

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

So, conley is +7 Pts. -1.3 rpg. -.9 apg. That's not a big difference. If you convert the rebound and assist into points then basically a one possession difference. For 25 million I will pass!

 

7 points per 100 possessions. Rebounds don't get converted into points. I'll give you the 1.8 points from the .9 of an assist per 100 possessions.

 

So Conley is 5.2 points per 100 possessions better.

 

That's like 264 points-ish over the course of a season

[HeHateMe 697]

So, conley is +7 Pts. -1.3 rpg. -.9 apg. That's not a big difference. If you convert the rebound and assist into points then basically a one possession difference. For 25 million I will pass!

 

+7 points is a lot. How many games this year did we lose by 7 points or less? Probably close to 15.

 

This is a circumstance where you have to look further than the numbers alone. For example, let's bring floor spacing into account here with Conley. How much better does Conley make those around him vs Payton, just off the simple fact that he doesn't have a broken shot? That alone is going to account for more positive offensive possessions. Creating driving lanes for Dipo and Fournier is important and the lane is clogged with Payton.

 

Let's not so soon forget that before CJ Watson got hurt earlier in the year, he was taking a lot of minutes from Payton and some even thought he could take his starting spot before he got hurt. You cannot underestimate how much harder it is to be a successful team when you have a PG who cannot space the floor in today's NBA.

 

Also, like PFW pointed out earlier, you know what your getting with Conley. You are getting consistently good play. You aren't going to have the lowest of the lows like you do with Payton. 29 games scoring 8 points or less from a starting NBA PG is just unacceptable.

 

The other nice thing about bringing in Conley is it in no way means your giving up on Payton. First of all, every team needs a goo backup PG and there would still be minutes to go around for Payton as a backup. But also, and more importantly it gives Payton time time to develop his game. Then, when Payton's rookie deal is up in 3 years (I think?) we could than be able to make a decision on keeping him or not. Either way, it's gaining an asset that could help us out at that time.

[Air Gordon 156]

If we get Conley, what do we do with Elfrid?

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

If we get Conley, what do we do with Elfrid?

 

We do a review of our goals and how Elfrid fits into them. Is he worth more to us as a trade chip or a backup with starting experience.

[Franchero MVP 391]

Report: Mike Conley expected to leave Grizzlies in free agency http://dlvr.it/L5C31J

 

Strap in everybody!

[Mike1989 68]

He's also become less efficient over time too.

 

Like I said, his efficiency has always been fairly streaky. But his first season in Dallas actually saw his efficiency go up to the level it was at when he scored 24 ppg in 2010-11, the joint third highest of his career. It fell marginally in his second season by .006, but that was still better than his years in Milwaukee and his final half season in Golden State. So in Dallas he had managed to find some more efficiency and better looks, but even there he was a streaky player whose stats got boosted by the most usage he got. He's not getting that in Indiana, if he was his stats would probably be slightly higher, though his inefficiency would remain like it generally has through his career. It's generally been the reason why I didn't want him to sign for us.