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Q5Magic

2016 Off-Season Thread

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Updating this with new numbers.

 

Nikola Vucevic ($11,750,000)

•Serge Ibaka ($12,250,000)

•C.J. Watson ($5,000,000)

•Aaron Gordon ($4,351,320)

•Mario Hezonja ($3,909,840)

•Elfrid Payton ($2,613,600)

•Shabazz Napier ($1,350,120)

 

that's $41,224,880 in guaranteed salary

 

plus 2,717,355 in cap holds for the minimum nba salary to get us to 12 roster spots ($543,471 x 5)

 

that brings us to $43,942,235. That's the absolute minimum we can possibly have without making a move.

 

So we have around $50,057,765 in cap room

 

To get to a salary cap of 94 million you we're expecting a BRI of $210,100,000 ish (which calculates out to 93,998,740 which is close enough for me.)

 

the figure max contracts are based off of is 88,536,140 (BRIx .4214)

 

so a 4-6 year player is capped out at $22,134,035 in year one of the deal (i.e. Fournier or Barnes)

a 7-9 year player is capped out at $26,560,842 (Durant or Horford)

and a 10+ player is capped out at $30,987,649 (Dwight)

 

two 7-9 year guys is going to cost us $53,121,684 meaning we need to clear $3,700,000ish.

 

in order to have two max contracts and keep Fournier we need to clear ~9.5 million

 

so in a hypothetical scenario where we trade vucevic, Watson, and Shabazz we want the incoming contracts to be around $7,000,000 (the difference between their salaries and three additional cap holds.

 

or we dump Watson and don't keep Fournier and have the two max guys.

 

or we trade vucevic for someone on a rookie contract and we can keep Fournier and two max guys.

 

Also, none of these things can happen until July 1 when the new cap is set.

 

keep these things in mind when we're coming up with trades.

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That DeAndre was named 1st team stupidly doesn't make Ibaka better than he is.

 

A trade of Oladipo for Ibaka is a step-sideways, trading one problem for a different one. Adding in that we gave up cap flexibility and a draft pick to do it makes this a bad trade on value.

 

 

cap numbers don't look as bad as you'd think

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The only danger with Fournier is him signing an offer sheet with somebody right away which would tie up that money until we made a decision.

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The only danger with Fournier is him signing an offer sheet with somebody right away which would tie up that money until we made a decision.

 

that's what the moratorium is for.

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I am struggling to see how this is anything but a bad move. Hennigan has to make some serious and impressive moves to get my confidence in him back, because right now he traded away a young player who was improving for a player that has been on the decline for the past two years. It is very likely that I overrated Oladipo, colored as I am by Homer-ism, yet I cannot see the positives with this deal.

 

This feels like a win-now move, when we are still not a position to "win-now" and where the player gained will not help us "win-now". The only potential positive that I see in this is that he is off the books next year (although Oladipo would have been as well); however, since we made this move, I would not be surprised to see Hennigan go in for and max out third or fourth tier free agents when he misses on the top free agents, which will hobble us for years.

 

I am probably overreacting here, but I saw Oladipo as a great young player who was the only player who seemed to give a damn in many of our games last year. Was he ever going to be an all-star? Maybe not. But it looked like he would be able to at least provide solid offense and solid defense. Ibaka, on the other hand, we have to hope comes back to where he was a few years ago, something that rarely happens.

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I am struggling to see how this is anything but a bad move. Hennigan has to make some serious and impressive moves to get my confidence in him back, because right now he traded away a young player who was improving for a player that has been on the decline for the past two years. It is very likely that I overrated Oladipo, colored as I am by Homer-ism, yet I cannot see the positives with this deal.

 

This feels like a win-now move, when we are still not a position to "win-now" and where the player gained will not help us "win-now". The only potential positive that I see in this is that he is off the books next year (although Oladipo would have been as well); however, since we made this move, I would not be surprised to see Hennigan go in for and max out third or fourth tier free agents when he misses on the top free agents, which will hobble us for years.

 

I am probably overreacting here, but I saw Oladipo as a great young player who was the only player who seemed to give a damn in many of our games last year. Was he ever going to be an all-star? Maybe not. But it looked like he would be able to at least provide solid offense and solid defense. Ibaka, on the other hand, we have to hope comes back to where he was a few years ago, something that rarely happens.

 

its a ballsy move that could go really well and could go really poorly.

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Bottom line. We needed interior defense and rim protection BADLY. We had a logjam at the wing, and while trading Oladipo wasn't ideal he was going to bring the most in return and we still have Fournier most likely and we have Hezonja who a lot of you are high on. If Mario is as good as people think, this was a great trade. Ibaka will help this team immensely and we still have cap space.

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After sleeping on the trade I think it will be great for us. Sucks to lose Dipo but we needed a low post defender. Ibaka/Vuc will make a great front court together under Vogel.

 

This addition also makes us a lot more attractive in FA since Ibaka is a proven commodity. Pull a Gordon, DeRozan, Waiters, Mayo C Lee in FA as your starter and bring Evan back and we have a solid rotation.

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here's why its very likely that we're going to keep Ibaka:

 

what teams will be able to offer him:

first year salary of $30,972,900

4 years 133 ish million

 

what we can offer him as we own his bird rights:

 

5 years 180ish million

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