The Official 2015-2016 Trade Thread

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

Its really difficult to measure this because we have 3 very different players at different levels of their career.

 

 

Here is a list of payton's best games (best defined as objectively as possible by going with Game Score to measure total impact)

 

 

Here's Oladipo

 

 

Here's Russell

 

 

As you can see, Payton's best game is slightly better than oladipo's best game. However Oladipo has a deeper stable of good games as payton reaches his much less frequently. Russell has a few good games and it tails off pretty quickly as Russell has only been in the NBA for a minute.

 

Russell is a bad defender though and oladipo and payton are good. so there's that to consider as well.

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

So here's what we can take from those charts.

 

 

Payton is the best player: Payton has a higher proven ceiling and, given the same number of games as oladipo, might have a more positive collection of games. He also can develop into a better two way player while we're not sure Russell can do that.

 

Oladipo is the best player: Payton's one great game can be viewed as an outlier. if you remove everyone's top games then oladipo has the highest reachable ceiling. Additionally, his first 38 games are superior to Russell's first 38 games.

 

Russell is the best player: In a situation where the lakers refuse to make it easy for him to succeed and he's still already starting to turn a corner. His first 38 games are better than Payton's first 38 games of his career. Rookies often seem to flourish in the second half of their rookie season so we're essentially seeing Russell at his worst. He had the highest hype coming into the draft of the three and no enough has happened to change that.

 

 

 

There's no real definitive way to say who will be better.

[Soul Bro 1,422]

So here's what we can take from those charts.

 

Payton is the best player: Payton has a higher proven ceiling and, given the same number of games as oladipo, might have a more positive collection of games. He also can develop into a better two way player while we're not sure Russell can do that.

 

Oladipo is the best player: Payton's one great game can be viewed as an outlier. if you remove everyone's top games then oladipo has the highest reachable ceiling. Additionally, his first 38 games are superior to Russell's first 38 games.

 

Russell is the best player: In a situation where the lakers refuse to make it easy for him to succeed and he's still already starting to turn a corner. His first 38 games are better than Payton's first 38 games of his career. Rookies often seem to flourish in the second half of their rookie season so we're essentially seeing Russell at his worst. He had the highest hype coming into the draft of the three and no enough has happened to change that.

 

There's no real definitive way to say who will be better.

Who would you personally want the most?

[Soul Bro 1,422]

I don't believe Payton and Dipo will both be on this team in 2 years. I believe one will be traded.

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

Who would you personally want the most?

 

I look at things from more of a game theory standpoint.

 

Its not who is going to be better, its chances of a player being great + chances of a player being good + chances of a player being bad + chances of finding a better player+how a player fits overall+ how a player would fit in a different offense.

 

 

so, based on all of this, I'd take oladipo because he has a really high floor and can, theoretically, play on both ends of the court.

 

So you might be thinking "oladipo is having a subpar year in his third season. why him over payton".

 

Well he had a terrible, awful, completely inefficient first 12 games where he averaged 12.8ppg on 37/26/75 shooting.

 

Since, (22 games) he's averaged 13.2 ppg on 42/37/83 shooting in 28 mpg (that's ~17ish per 36 minutes). And that still includes 8 below average games that would have been masked better had he not sucked so terribly at the beginning of the season.

 

Oladipo plays a position where theres only a handful of decent options (Bradley beal is always injured and stated recently that he's going to probably have to limit his minutes for the rest of his career. Wade is on the tail end of his career. Harden is getting a reputation as a guy you don't want to play with.)

 

Other top shooting guards: derozan, wiggins, jimmy butler, klay Thompson, Batum, JJ (who is 31), and then it falls fast into the Will Barton range.

 

It's not crazy to think oladipo could be a top 5 shooting guard because there's not a ton of guys out there. and again, he has a high floor as a better offense tony allen.

 

 

There's nothing wrong with Payton and I wouldn't dump him or anything like that. But right now he's shown the ability to have a handful of fantastic games and a bunch of average games. He floats through most and picks spots. He gets angry occasionally and it makes special things happen. That's George Hill. Good but not great.

 

Payton had a bad start to the season, then had a stretch where he played 13 good games out of 15. Then he had 4 bad games in a row. Payton is prone to slumps for a variety of reasons.

 

There are also a ridiculous number of solid point guards in the league (so much now that if Jameer was drafted today he'd be a career backup). There's a good chance that this is the most cumulative point guard talent in league history. So a Payton replacement isn't that far away.

 

 

Russell plays limited defense and we don't really know anything about him right now. He could easily be Lou Williams.

 

 

So, gun to my head I choose oladipo. But in reality I'd rather keep them both and continue to collect two way players and become a lock down defensive team.

[Fultz4thewin 2,464]

I don't believe Payton and Dipo will both be on this team in 2 years. I believe one will be traded.

 

that'd be disappointing as I think the "they cant play together" narrative is overblown and coincidental.

[Magicman28 295]

I look at things from more of a game theory standpoint.

 

Its not who is going to be better, its chances of a player being great + chances of a player being good + chances of a player being bad + chances of finding a better player+how a player fits overall+ how a player would fit in a different offense.

 

 

so, based on all of this, I'd take oladipo because he has a really high floor and can, theoretically, play on both ends of the court.

 

So you might be thinking "oladipo is having a subpar year in his third season. why him over payton".

 

Well he had a terrible, awful, completely inefficient first 12 games where he averaged 12.8ppg on 37/26/75 shooting.

 

Since, (22 games) he's averaged 13.2 ppg on 42/37/83 shooting in 28 mpg (that's ~17ish per 36 minutes). And that still includes 8 below average games that would have been masked better had he not sucked so terribly at the beginning of the season.

 

Oladipo plays a position where theres only a handful of decent options (Bradley beal is always injured and stated recently that he's going to probably have to limit his minutes for the rest of his career. Wade is on the tail end of his career. Harden is getting a reputation as a guy you don't want to play with.)

 

Other top shooting guards: derozan, wiggins, jimmy butler, klay Thompson, Batum, JJ (who is 31), and then it falls fast into the Will Barton range.

 

It's not crazy to think oladipo could be a top 5 shooting guard because there's not a ton of guys out there. and again, he has a high floor as a better offense tony allen.

 

 

There's nothing wrong with Payton and I wouldn't dump him or anything like that. But right now he's shown the ability to have a handful of fantastic games and a bunch of average games. He floats through most and picks spots. He gets angry occasionally and it makes special things happen. That's George Hill. Good but not great.

 

Payton had a bad start to the season, then had a stretch where he played 13 good games out of 15. Then he had 4 bad games in a row. Payton is prone to slumps for a variety of reasons.

 

There are also a ridiculous number of solid point guards in the league (so much now that if Jameer was drafted today he'd be a career backup). There's a good chance that this is the most cumulative point guard talent in league history. So a Payton replacement isn't that far away.

 

 

Russell plays limited defense and we don't really know anything about him right now. He could easily be Lou Williams.

 

 

So, gun to my head I choose oladipo. But in reality I'd rather keep them both and continue to collect two way players and become a lock down defensive team.

 

 

Yeah I'd take Dipo as well. He has more upper tier games to his resume. Add an off season of strengthening and continuous work on his shot and he might put himself as an legit all star.

 

I still don't know if Payton is gonna be good, or Brevin Knight.

 

Btw, just got don't watching old clips of Nick Van Exel. My favorite player of all time. Only Laker jersey I ever owned.

[fan for too long 2 535]

Payton because his feel for the game is so natural. Oladipo has a chance but his finishing off the glass has got to improve exponentially. Have not seen Russell play much in NBA. Seen him more in college I got the feel like he plays better off the ball. So, he is not a good enough defender right now. Big ? With him.

[Soul Bro 1,422]

So, gun to my head I choose oladipo. But in reality I'd rather keep them both and continue to collect two way players and become a lock down defensive team.

Great response. It's a very hard call. As you pointed out, both have struggled mightily with consistency. We also need to keep in mind both have had three coaches in their short NBA careers.

[Soul Bro 1,422]

I personally think the best of the three in 2-3 years will be Payton. He's just a natural PG and has the "it" factor. Moreover, he's still very young and makes those around him better.

 

I like and respect Dipo. He's probably a better all around player than Payton right now. The challenge is I just don't feel the game comes easy for him, and I'm not sure he knows his limitations.

 

And lastly, I feel bad for Russell. The Lakers are so dysfunctional and don't seem to have a plan.

[matthi32 4]

Some players who could be available:

 

Joe Johnson:

Low risk high reward? He is a UFA at the end of the season. He is a veteran who could be our starting SG. Depends what the plan is with Fournier.

 

Brandon Jennings:

If CJ Watson is out for the season we should take a gamble on Jennings. He could be a good backup PG who also could play some starting PG. His shooting would definitely help us.

 

Kevin Martin + Gorgui Dieng:

Depends what the plan is with Fournier. Martin would bring us scoring and Dieng defense in the paint. Two things we need!

 

Ryan Anderson + Eric Gordon:

Uprades for Frye and Fournier. Would love to have Anderson back in Orlando.

 

Markieff Morris:

I haven’t follow Morris. So I am not sure if he fits in our team.

 

Gerald Henderson:

Also a UFA at the end of the season. If we take a gamble on Fournier and at the end he is to expensive for us, Henderson could be a cheap alternative (Start Dipo, bring Henderson of the bench).

 

Darren Collison:

If CJ Watson is out for the season Collison could be a good offensive backup PG.

 

Boris Diaw:

Would love to have him instead of Frye. But I am not sure if the Spurs are willing to trade him.

[Magicman28 295]

Some players who could be available:

 

Joe Johnson:

Low risk high reward? He is a UFA at the end of the season. He is a veteran who could be our starting SG. Depends what the plan is with Fournier.

 

Brandon Jennings:

If CJ Watson is out for the season we should take a gamble on Jennings. He could be a good backup PG who also could play some starting PG. His shooting would definitely help us.

 

Kevin Martin + Gorgui Dieng:

Depends what the plan is with Fournier. Martin would bring us scoring and Dieng defense in the paint. Two things we need!

 

Ryan Anderson + Eric Gordon:

Uprades for Frye and Fournier. Would love to have Anderson back in Orlando.

 

Markieff Morris:

I haven’t follow Morris. So I am not sure if he fits in our team.

 

Gerald Henderson:

Also a UFA at the end of the season. If we take a gamble on Fournier and at the end he is to expensive for us, Henderson could be a cheap alternative (Start Dipo, bring Henderson of the bench).

 

Darren Collison:

If CJ Watson is out for the season Collison could be a good offensive backup PG.

 

Boris Diaw:

Would love to have him instead of Frye. But I am not sure if the Spurs are willing to trade him.

 

 

I would be alright with Collison if Cousins or WCS is also part of the deal.