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Manu Ginobili

No room for upsets

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The top 4 spots in each conference seem to be already written:

 

Chi, Bos, Mia, Orl

 

Sas, Lal, Dal, Okc

 

It appears to me that there is not any chance of beating any of those 4 teams in their 1st round matchups. Atl, Nyk, Ind (or Cha/Mil) and Phi on the East and Mem, Den, Noh and Portland on the East are vastly inferior to those on the upper echelon.

 

Those 8 teams don't seem capable to me of pulling any upset. Which is weird because there always used to be 1 or 2 upsets minimum in the 1st round. But I think the balance of power is very well established in the League now, and these 4 teams are going straight to 2nd round without major problems.

 

I think the only one that has a chance would be the Blazers, healthy as ever and with Batum and Aldridge in a superb level. However, i think none of them is going to pull it off.

 

I believe 2nd round will be open for surprises, as fight between n2 and n3 in the East, and the young Thunder Vs. old Spurs in a probable matchup are going to be real wars.

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Double posting for attention.

(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (8) Indiana Pacers

 

I expect Rose to have a good series. Only way Pacers win this is if Granger/Hibbert/Psycho-T/Collison or some two combination of these guys have career nights for four games. Not happening. Bulls in five.

 

(2) Miami Heat vs. (7) Philadelphia Sixers

 

Holiday and Williams could make this an interesting series and the Sixers can certainly defend the Heat at times.. but can they score? Brand/Bosh will be amusing only because Bosh is a softie. Heat won't have any trouble though. In five.

 

(3) Boston Celtics vs. (6) New York Knicks

 

You people need to stop hyping this match-up. The Knicks play no defense whatsoever. Only possible way this is even competitive is if Stoudemire plays out of his mind which he tends to do against Garnett. The Celtics have trouble with athletic big men who can roll pretty quick, but the Knicks aren't going to make many shots to capitalize that, so.. Celtics in five.

 

(4) Orlando Magic vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks

 

Toughest first-round match-up in my view. On one hand, Magic have averaged around the lower 80s, Howard's FG% is 43, and the Magic have shot abysmally from three. On the other hand, it's the *****ing Hawks.

 

I think the people who look at this match-up as an easy Magic win should reconsider with the following facts:

 


  •  
  • Dwight has no true back-up. That means if he's ever in significant foul trouble, the Magic lose.
  • Hawks have improved defensively at the 1 with Hinrich compared to Bibby, although they may lose a tiny bit of offense.
  • Jason Collins.. has actually been the reason why Howard and the Magic in general have struggled offensively.

 

You get the idea. Small changes in important areas that can tip this either way. This solely depends on the Magic's perimeter players to make some shots (notably the fours) vs. The Hawks... not to act retarded (notably Smith). What's more likely to happen?

 

Who knows. Flip a coin. Magic have the intangibles, so they win in seven despite the Hawks having some statistical advantages.

 

As for the rest of the conference:Bulls > Magic in 6

 

Celtics > Heat in 6

 

Celtics > Bulls in 6

 

 

 

(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (8) Memphis Grizzlies

 

With the news on Ginobili, the Spurs might be here for a while. The last time Ginobili couldn't play, they lost to the Mavs. Yes, the LOL MAVS.

 

Even without Ginobili, the Spurs actually have a deeper roster this time around. I think Richard Jefferson just needs to make his shots.. it's not like they're any less talented than Conley or Mayo.

 

Their only true worry is the Grizzlies' frontline. Gasol/Randolph are going to bully the paint, but without good enough three point shooting, I can't see them taking advantage of that. Spurs have been the top three-point shooters in the league, so they'll not be as troubled by double-teams. Assuming Spurs have Ginobili back by at least game 3, Spurs in six.

 

(2) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (7) New Orleans Hornets

 

Belinelli can't guard anybody. Carl Landry, as much as he bothers the Lakers sometimes, is going to be overwhelmed. Nobody can handle the ball or create offense outside of Paul. Trevor Ariza is still perfecting the art of the brick. Get the broomsticks.

(3) LOL MAVS vs. (6) Portland Trailblazers

 

Well, it's that time again. To champion the Blazers to get another upset. It may have burned me the first two years, but this year I'm sure!

 

This is essentially 2007 Warriors (Only in terms of how they're going to guard the Dirk/Terry pick and roll). The Blazers have flashes of forwards and guards who can easily guard multiple positions, have crazy athleticism, and shoot threes.

 

The problem I have with the Mavericks is that it's Dirk and a bunch of short ass jump shooters. They are still weak to defensive switches. Since the Blazers have a lot of like-sized guys, the Mavericks will be forced to do nothing but go to Dirk (who will likely be defended by Wallace) or hope Terry and Kidd don't become liabilities.

 

Caron Butler could really change this series as could Tyson Chandler, but if Wallace is up to his crazy foul antics, it won't even matter. Those are the only guys I see changing this series in the lol Mavs favor. Blazers in six.

 

(4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (5) Denver Nuggets

 

This will be the Thunder's test to see if they're truly up for the playoff pressure. I'm not convinced in the hype of these guys because they still have a couple of flaws to address, but I don't think they'll show up for this series as much. Westbrook is superior to Lawson and even if they were equal, Thunder at least have shot blockers. This match-up will most likely come to the guards. Only way I see Denver winning this is if Nene actually takes advantage of his match-up, because Perkins hates quick, athletic centers. Just ask Blatche. Thunder in six.

 

As for the rest of the conference:

 

Spurs > OKC in six

 

Lakers > Blazers in six

 

 

Lakers > Spurs in six

 

 

Lakers > Celtics in six

 

Man, I love the number six.

 

Let's see how wrong I am! Flame me for every pick!

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Well, actually Manu was injured after i make this predictions...but i still believe there will be no upsets.

 

I don't either. I was just just givin Memphis some props for their gutsy win today and makin things interesting. :D

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