Shot Selection

[Captain Hi-Top 791]

Watching game after game of the team going away from Dwight (particularly in the second half), while continuing to shoot three pointers, I had a thought about a rule of thumb to manage shot attempts that I think would help this team. In short, I think Dwight should average as many shot attempts per game as the rest of the team averages 3 point shots.

 

Currently, the team is averaging 25.8 3 pointers per game, out of a total 79.2 shots per game. That means 32.6% of our shots come from behind the arc. Dwight is averaging 13.6 attempts per game. He is also averaging 11.5 ft attempts per game (no one else on the team averages 3 or more attempts). To account for other teams fouling Dwight and reducing his shot attempts, I will add four attempts to his total (assuming he averages three "and-1" free throws per game), giving him a total of 17.6 attempts per game.

 

That's a difference of 8.2 shot attempts (25.8-17.6). If Dwight were to take those additional 8.2 attempts, they have to come from the rest of the team. If the team is shooting 32.6% of their shots from behind the arc, then the three point attempts would be reduced by 2.6 per game. Meaning Dwight wouldn't actually need to take 25.8 attempts per game, closer to 23.

 

Slightly fewer 3 pointers, more shots for Dwight.

 

Impact:

 

Dwight is taking more shots, and more free throws. Currently, he scores 1.653 points per shot attempt (leads the team). Using his adjusted attempts above (17.6), we see that Dwight gets his shot off 77% of the time. So, 23 attempts per game would likely result in 17.8 attempts per game (77% of 23) and 15 free throws. His fg and ft percentages would likely not change, and we haven't changed his ratio of shots to free throws, so his 1.653 pps would remain unchanged as well. 17.8 attempts, at 1.653 pps would result in a new points per game average for Dwight of 29.4 points per game, an increase of 6.9 points per game.

 

Reduces three pointers:

 

We also reduced the team average for three point attempts by three attempts per game. As a team, we shoot 36.2% from downtown, so that would results in a decrease of 3.2 points per game.

 

Net increase of +3.7 points per game.

 

Other Impacts:

 

When Dwight is utilized more on the offensive end, he tends to also be more productive offensively as well.

 

Teams fouling Dwight more will cause problems for match ups as they try to manage foul trouble.

 

 

 

 

Before you say "We don't want Dwight shooting more free throws, especially in crunch time", keep in mind that Dwight leads the team in points per shot. It isn't even close. Dwight is at 1.653, Hedo is next at 1.349, the rest of our starters and some of our bench range from 1.285 - 1.174. Our lesser used bench guys (Clark, Q, Duhon) are all just over 1, and Gilbert and Malik are bringing up the rear at .955 and .714 respectively.

 

 

 

Thoughts?

[Sir Raven 12]

Id take the chance to give the ball to the FRANCHISE player , when he gets the ball so many Good things can happen. With him having the ball it can lead to :

A Foul ( Since hes hard to guard , its more chances to put the other team in foul trouble) ,

2 Free Throws ( 50/50 Chance with Dwight but better than nothing) , 3 second call on opposing teams ( 1 Free throw) , Double Team ( Chance to get a open 3 but would prefer if we actually had a team that attacked the basket), and Finally him just scoring in the post is just good enough too.

[KillingInTheNameOf 63]

I would be happy if the Magic would simply eliminate every 3 point shot where the ball doesn't first move inside the 3 point line. Ideally, I would say paint, but I'd settle for anything that could be construed as inside-out.

 

I'll add, the D12 fga = 3-pt fga sounds like a very sound philosophy/goal/barometer.

[GhostAnime 50]

I like everything you said.. I'd just like to see the win-loss; and maybe even how good the teams are (below or above 500?)

[MP_20 2]

Something screams system-problem if you change out most of the cast and the new, smarter, better passing guys are doing the exact same thing.

[Franchero MVP 391]

No 3's should ever be attempted unless the ball gets to Dwight FIRST.

[Emory889 353]

You know, I hear the Rockets compared to us when it's brought up that a prolific 3 point shooting team can't win a championship. However, I remember the Rockets dumping the ball into Hakeem on practically every possession and THEN they would take wide open 3 point shots. The shots the Magic are taking are poor, contest jumpers outside of the offense. Dwight barely even touched the ball in the second half last night. That is unacceptable.

[GhostAnime 50]

No 3's should ever be attempted unless the ball gets to Dwight FIRST.

What if it's a zone defense?

[Emory889 353]

What if it's a zone defense?

 

The best way to attack a zone is to get the ball in the paint. It collapses it.

[MP_20 2]

The best way to attack a zone is to get the ball in the paint. It collapses it.

 

 

Isn't one of the purposes of the zone to make it harder to get into the paint? Thus the challenge to knock down shots?

[ThisIsTheYear 241]

Our shot selection was mystifying last night, but it comes down two issues:

 

1. Our inability to get Dwight the ball

2. Dwight's inability to DEMAND the ball

 

Throughout the entire 4th quarter, Dwight only demanded the ball once or twice, max. It looked like 2007-2009 all over again, when he would relegate himself into permanent screen-setter. Despite his numbers, I was disappointed with him last night. Stan can blame himself all he likes for not getting the ball into Dwight, but that's nothing he couldn't have initiated by himself by aggressively telling his teammates to stop chucking and get him the damn ball, but he never did.

 

From perimeter defense, to our 4th quarter 'execution', to Dwight's absurd level of deference, that was just an all-around disappointing performance.

[Captain Hi-Top 791]

Look past last night and look at the big picture. It's not a one time thing, its a philosophy tweak.