Jazz, Pacers score improbable feats

[BMP 424]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-101110

 

The first, and the one nearly everyone is talking about, is the explosion by Utah's Paul Millsap in the Jazz's shocking comeback win in Miami. Utah had rallied from 22 down to briefly take a fourth-quarter lead, but still trailed by eight with 37 seconds left in regulation.

 

However, the main oddity was the player doing most of the damage. Millsap had made only two 3-pointers in his entire NBA career; he was 2-for-20 in regular-season games and another 0-for-4 in the playoffs.

 

The odds of a (now) 21.7 percent career 3-point shooter hitting three straight are about 1 in 100. The odds of two other modestly talented long-range shooters (Kirilenko and Deron Williams) getting into the fun to make it five straight makes it a 1-in-873 proposition.

 

But my favorite stat from that game comes from the aftermath. Longtime readers will remember previous discussions of the "Hot Hand Theory," and of a study by University of Chicago professor John Huizinga that said, essentially, players tend to go on destructive shooting binges when they perceive themselves as hot.

 

Millsap? He knew not to push his luck. In the five-minute overtime that followed his outburst, he could have tempted fate by seeing whether his newfound 3-point prowess would last. Instead, he took only two shots in OT, and both were within 3 feet of the basket.

 

As amazing as the Jazz-Heat game was, it's only the second-most impressive feat that took place Tuesday night.

 

Top billing goes to the Indiana Pacers. Hosting a good Denver team, they exploded for 54 points in the third quarter -- briefly threatening the record for points in a quarter (58) held by the 1972-73 Buffalo Braves. (A fact, incidentally, that virtually assures a gratuitous Buffalo shout-out in Marc Stein's Weekend Dime).

 

Thus, the Pacers' 54-point explosion came on only 24 possessions ... for an offensive efficiency rating of 225.00. That's more than two points a trip -- so dunks and layups were bringing down the average.

 

Indy's quarter was only the fourth-most in history. But once you adjust for pace between eras, this was the most impressive performance in history. Every other high-scoring quarter happened in the NBA's "live-ball era" prior to 1990, when extra possessions made it easier to put up eye-popping scoring numbers. While the Pacers are a fast-paced team for the current era, they played the third quarter at a fairly casual 96-possession pace.

 

• Of the 20 shots, eight were 3-pointers, including five by Dunleavy. Based on the shooters' career stats, the odds of Indy making eight consecutively were 2,818-to-1. The Dunleavy hot streak alone was hugely unlikely -- his odds of making five straight 3s were 175-to-1.

 

• Dunleavy scored 24 points in the quarter on seven shots and six free throw attempts, for a true shooting percentage of 124.5.

 

• The Pacers could have scored more but they gagged on three free throws. Dunleavy missed one of his six tries, and McRoberts missed both freebies after absorbing a flagrant foul from Al Harrington.

 

• If you take away the third quarter, Indiana still shot 53 percent.

 

• Entering the game, Indiana's 41.7 percent shooting mark ranked 27th in the NBA. This morning they're up to 15th.

 

• According to the Elias Sports Bureau, there have been 396 quarters played this season, and the two teams combined to score fewer than 54 points in 273 of them, or 68.9 percent.

 

Yet all of that pales beside the one jaw-dropping stat that tops them all. The Pacers made 20 straight shots in the third quarter, and I'm not sure people appreciate how remarkably unusual that was.

 

Using Indiana's 45.7 percent mark on the season, the probability of their making 20 straight shots is ... 1-in-6,333,970.

 

Calling it "unlikely" is the understatement of the century. In all probability, you'll never see anything like this again, ever ... and your children, grandchildren and several generations of descendants won't, either.

 

NBA teams play 328 quarters a season, meaning 9,720 quarters leaguewide. So if the league stays at or near a 30-team alignment, you would have to watch every quarter of every game for about 643 years, on average, before again seeing a team rip off 20 straight made shots to start a period. If you were one of the 11,122 people in Conseco Fieldhouse Tuesday night, consider yourself lucky.

[Sabian Jackson 0]

Awesome stats bro

[Progfrog 18]

Cool.