2010 Championship Odds

[LeBroncious 0]

Hollinger's stats are good for conversation but outside of that, I don't see them as all that useful in the real world.

 

I'm still trying to figure out what's downgrading Cleveland so much in his math equation.

 

1.) They're (9-1) in their last 10 (#1), have a scoring margin of +7.18 (#1)

2.) 52-15 overall (#1 and 7 games better than ORL in the loss column)

3.) 24-8 against teams above .500

4.) 11-7 against the top 4 teams in each conference

5.) 4-1 against the top 2 (LA, ORL)

 

and they're ranked #3 BEHIND 43-24 Utah? Who's 6-4 in their last 10? All while playing 1 less home game?

 

The only explanation I see is that scoring margin over the last 10 games is weighted very heavily because the only other category Orlando leads Cleveland in is SOS and it's by .004. But even that doesn't make sense since Cleveland trumps Utah in that category?

 

Both teams are fairly even (vs. CLE and ORL) but Cleveland has been the best team over the course of the season. Throw in that they have HC all but locked up through the ECF (and most likely NBA finals) and it would seem to be a coin flip (at best) for Orlando to get by them.

 

I would say the same thing if the roles were revered (i.e. Cleveland having to go on the road). Should be fun to watch it play out.

 

As for Holloinger's system, it seems to be set up to fluctuate a lot, which would make sense, since no one would care if it was always the same.

[Sir Raven 12]

quote:

Originally posted by LeBroncious:

Hollinger's stats are good for conversation but outside of that, I don't see them as all that useful in the real world.

 

I'm still trying to figure out what's downgrading Cleveland so much in his math equation.

 

1.) They're (9-1) in their last 10 (#1), have a scoring margin of +7.18 (#1)

2.) 52-15 overall (#1 and 7 games better than ORL in the loss column)

3.) 24-8 against teams above .500

4.) 11-7 against the top 4 teams in each conference

5.) 4-1 against the top 2 (LA, ORL)

 

and they're ranked #3 BEHIND 43-24 Utah? Who's 6-4 in their last 10? All while playing 1 less home game?

 

The only explanation I see is that scoring margin over the last 10 games is weighted very heavily because the only other category Orlando leads Cleveland in is SOS and it's by .004. But even that doesn't make sense since Cleveland trumps Utah in that category?

 

Both teams are fairly even (vs. CLE and ORL) but Cleveland has been the best team over the course of the season. Throw in that they have HC all but locked up through the ECF (and most likely NBA finals) and it would seem to be a coin flip (at best) for Orlando to get by them.

 

I would say the same thing if the roles were revered (i.e. Cleveland having to go on the road). Should be fun to watch it play out.

 

As for Holloinger's system, it seems to be set up to fluctuate a lot, which would make sense, since no one would care if it was always the same.

Playoffs matter not season wins...did u learn that ?