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Odin

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Posts posted by Odin

  1. Posted · Report reply

    17 minutes ago, Mauro Pedrosa said:

    Vucevic + Aminu for Jaylen + Hayward, when our guys are eligible to be traded

    Fixes our timetable issues and fixes the Celtics logjam of ball dominant wings

    Starters: Fultz, Jaylen, Isaac, Gordon, Bamba

    Bench: Augustin, Ross, Fournier, Hayward, Birch

    Would love if that happened. How long would we be stuck with Hayward (if he isn't able to regain prior form)?

    Edit: 2 years, and he would be off the books.

    • Like 1

  2. Posted · Report reply

    11 hours ago, ?4thewin said:

    Multiple. 

    They mention how crazy it is that Gordon wasn't put on team USA, note that he seems like a guy who could have one of those careers where he makes a big leap in his mid 20s. 

    Then they mention later on how we're a dark horse for the 3 seed.

    This is just so crazy to me.

    1) by all accounts Gordon wanted to go

    2) he has been on the select team before, so it isn't like he hasn't been around team USA

    3) He plays a position that they need

    4) he is better than most of the players on the team

     

  4. Posted · Report reply

    9 minutes ago, ?4thewin said:

    No. It's just a projection model based on previous year stats. 

    Two years ago we had a pretty solid team and everyone got hurt. Last year they looked at the numbers from the previous year and Ross looked like he was declining, Isaac projected to be bad based on his gross numbers when he was healthy, Grant was replacing Payton, and it was projecting probably closer to 80 missed games from our top 6 guys vs the 18 they actually missed. 

     And after the first 51 games we were on pace for 32 wins. It had the team pegged exactly. Then we shuffled things around and went on a crazy run. But that model can't project the mid season changes we made. 

    Now that we've returned 86% of the teams minutes and 95% of the teams post all star minutes  we're much easier to project. Normal expected improvements from the young players, normal injury patterns, normal declines from the older players. 42-40 and the 5th seed is pretty much what we should expect as the average outcome next year with every team staying reasonably healthy and nobody tanking. 

    Yeah, don't think that the projection is perfect, but it is trying to get the "average season". While they mess around with their CARMELO ratings every year, their model does do a good job of predicting on average what is going to happen with individual players.

  6. Posted · Report reply

    https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27125793/these-kids-ticking-bombs-threat-youth-basketball

     

    Interesting article that might explain the rise in injuries recently, especially of big injuries with rookies. This goes beyond the "young players are soft" thinking.

    To sum up:

    1. Over-specialization. Kids are getting too much wear and tear on their bodies at a young age by really only playing one sport (in this case basketball). This creates excessive wear on the body from doing similar movements over and over again.

    2. Little down time. One of the examples used was how older players back in the 90s and before didn't do as much off season training as today. This helped protect their bodies from extra wear and tear as well. A lot of youth players and NBA players are going 8 months or more with lots of games.

    3. Lack of focus on basics. Lots of young players focus on being able to pull off highlight type plays (think dunks), but not on everything else around it- for example, how to land.

    4. Too much too soon. Many young players do too much before their bodies have fully developed and are ready to take on more strenuous activity.

  7. Posted · Report reply

    28 minutes ago, TheNameIsOrlando said:

    So why pay a guy who never cracks the rotation barring injury 3 mil a year which causes you to stretch Moz?

    This offseason just seems so short sited.

    Because you still need a 3rd center? We are only paying him about double the vet minimum- which is not that much money. At 3 million a year, he is also very tradeable.

    This is not a short-sighted move at all. It gives us a great insurance back-up for whenever we want to or need to sit either Vuch or Bamba, and keeps us with a very tradeable asset.

    • Upvote 2

  8. Posted · Report reply

    Guys. Very few 2nd year players play all summer league games. Especially if they are high draft picks. In fact, many first year players don't play all summer league games. This isn't about babying. What is the point of playing them more summer league games (besides that the fans want to see them)?

    Don't get yourselves worked up over nothing.

  9. Posted · Report reply

    Everyone does remember that Isaac only played like 2 summer league games last year, right? We saw some good stuff from Bamba, and some stuff that he still needs to improve. We already have a good idea of what he can and cannot do. Why create extra risk of injury if it is not needed? He is just coming back from a leg fracture as a 7 footer.

    (Am I crazy or something?)

  10. Posted · Report reply

    12 minutes ago, ?4thewin said:

    This is pretty interesting. 

    Seems like it skews to guys who chase a ton of blocks though. 

     Like Mitchell Robinson went after every single shot which teams began to exploit. We went at him every possession and made him vacate the rim and just dumped the ball behind him. So Robinson was a pretty bad defender overall despite historic block numbers (though it's not like that's not correctable in time). 

     Similar situation with Whiteside, McGee, and Noel. 

    Yes, it ignores intelligent positioning.

    Two areas I think it misses most.

    1) incredibly intelligent player who is very good positionally and who, therefore, doesn't get as many shots as expected put up against. For example, think of a Marc Gasol type. His defensive stats are not that amazing, either here or counting stat wise. But he always makes the teams he is with better defensively through his positioning.

    2) the chasers/ out of positioners. These are the guys that gamble for example on blocks or who are often out of position, thus no longer being the closest defender. In these situations, their teammates are "punished" trying to cover for them when defending against a more "open" shot. E.G., Player A jumps out to block a shot (lets say around the free-throw line and gets off his feet. The opposing player either drives around this player or passes to a now open player closer to the basket. Player B is now forced to rotate to the player that is suddenly open. Player B is credited as being the closest defender, even though it is Player A who played the poor defense that allowed the opposing team to get good positioning. 

  12. Posted · Report reply

    55 minutes ago, hootie249 said:

          The trade would have to start with Gordon, both teams are capped out salaries have to be close. Westbrook makes 38 million. The problem with OKC is most teams have used up their cap space and have to match salaries. 

    Then why do it? That would be a bad trade to move most of your young assets for a player that will decline sooner rather than later, who will swallow up any cap space, and who hasn't shown an ability to get his team to a home court advantage or even to the second round as the main guy.

    (I am not saying Gordon is better than Westbrook, but 24 year old Gordon on less than 20 a year is better than 31 year old Westbrook at 40+ per year). 

    • Upvote 5

  14. Posted · Report reply

    6 minutes ago, ?4thewin said:

    I think either Mozgov is that third center or we cut him and sign a guy like ekpe udoh or Salah Mejri for the minimum

    Or that. Even if Mozgov is the third center (or either of those two) though, I don't think they are likely to get many minutes.

  15. Posted · Report reply

    14 minutes ago, ?4thewin said:

    We already resigned MCW.

    We're probably not matching Birch

     

    Birch wants to play and resigning him would probably push us over the cap. Love the guy, but, even if we don't sign anyone else, we have options. Always can use Isaac, Gordon, or Aminu as a 3rd center for small minutes and could resign Amile Jefferson for cheap/on a two-way for that final spot.

  16. Posted · Report reply

    2 minutes ago, fan for too long 2 said:

    Can anyone tell me why we didn’t go after Jeremy lamb instead of aminu. Contracts are almost identical. Smdh. 

    Because we were more looking for a Martin upgrade and replacement. Lamb is more of a 2-3. At least that is how I see it.

  17. Posted · Report reply

    So, my thoughts with the team being basically set going forward. (Not that they are much different than anyone elses)

    1) Ouch that Vuch contract. Not very trade-able if we need to move him. We are paying him almost Jokic money, which makes sense if you look at it through the lens of they are both big Eastern European centers who are offensive specialists who centered playoff teams. But doesn't make sense when one is a generational talent offensively who still potentially has room to grow and brought his team to the 4th best record in the league and almost to the conference finals, while the other has reached his ceiling and was a non-entity in the playoffs.

    2) Like that we brought back Ross. I think the money is fair. I have read a few arguments online that we are overpaying for a contract year performance, but we are basically giving him the same money as he was making before, and he was effective (just not scoring-wise) in the 2018 season before being injured.

    3) Bah on the Aminu signing. Not that big on it, but it is whatever.

    4) Tradeable contracts. Besides Vuch, I think just about every one of our contracts are pretty trade-able at this time- and I am talking more about the non-rookie contracts here (rookie contracts are basically always tradeable). Ross at 13.5 per year for four years is perfect for his type of player, and the contract will only get better as time goes on. Aminu at 9 per year is digestible for any team needing a "3" and D type of player close to the deadline, which there always are. Gordon's contract has always been trade-able if needed- I think that there are very few teams that he wouldn't fit into as well. DJ for one more year at 9 is perfect for a back up sweet shooting point guard- in fact he might have the most tradeable contract if not for him being expiring after this year. Fournier's contract is not that onerous anymore, with 2 years left at 17 million (After this off-season, I think it will barely be a top 100 contract in money per year.). Mozgov is pretty tradeable for anyone looking to get rid of money next year. I assume MCW and Birch (if brought back) will not have contracts that are that big. Basically, the only "bad" contract we will have on the books is Vuch's.

    • Upvote 2

  18. Posted · Report reply

    I pray this doesn’t go through. Would be a terrible decision. If we couldn’t trade Vuch on a 12 per year contract, he is never going anywhere on a 20+ year contract. He slows the team down and keeps the team from playing the way every other player on our team suggests we should play. And, his production is replaceable.

    of all of his comparables, none are making big contracts. That should tell everyone something.

  19. Posted · Report reply

    No one is saying much of anything different, but from Fivethirtyeight.com

    (Interesting Fits)

    Chuma Okeke, No. 16, Orlando Magic
    Our model: 17th-highest upside

    Okeke won’t contribute much next year as he recovers from a torn ACL. But Kevin Pelton’s No. 2 overall prospect in the class is a strong perimeter shooter, having scorched the nets on at least 38 percent of his 3-point attempts in both of his college seasons at Auburn. His passing ability is well above average, and he knows when to attack the rim with or without the ball.

    Should the Magic deal Aaron Gordon or disassemble the frontcourt logjam in place, Okeke can subsidize Orlando on both ends of the floor.

  20. Posted · Report reply

    Just now, fan for too long 2 said:

    So, a guy that we could stick on Lakeland isn’t worth it. But in a few years maybe we could do the same dam thing. Got it.

    I would rather stockpile talent and keep the ones you like and maybe they are better than your think tank thought. 

    It isn’t about the player, it is about the idea of the player. You can only have so many players on your team. Plus, draft picks are kind of non-depreciate-able assets. A second round pick is basically always worth a second round pick (at least until set in stone. The 60th pick is unlikely to get much). However, a player in the second round has much less value- especially initially. With an extra 2nd rounder, you can always use it as a throw in for a trade where you just need a little more, for another second rounder, or, of course, actually use it if you see a player you like.

  21. Posted · Report reply

    https://www.theringer.com/nba-draft/2019/6/20/18693649/2019-nba-draft-grades-zion-williamson

     

    16. Orlando Magic: Chuma Okeke, F, Auburn

    Okeke, who could miss his entire rookie season after tearing his ACL in the NCAA tournament, is an interesting value pick for the Magic. He has a great combination of size (6-foot-8, 230 pounds), athleticism, and 3-point shooting ability, as well as one of the highest basketball IQs in this draft. Orlando has needed 3-point shooting for years. Okeke, who shot 38.7 percent from 3 on 3.7 attempts per game this season, can help fill that role—whenever he returns from injury.

    Grade: B

  23. Posted · Report reply

    23 minutes ago, ?4thewin said:

    I don't necessarily think he'll get the full amount. That's just what we can offer. 

    But who would be an upgrade?

    He was the 9th best spot up guy in the NBA last year. 

    If you expand that list to the top 50 spot up guys this year, guys who can score double figures regularly, and guys who happen to be free agents this year you get Ross, Danny Green, brogdon, bojan bogdanovic. 

    Brogdon is a RFA. bogdanovic is probably going to stay in Indiana. 

    Is Danny Green going to come here and play off of the bench?

    Are we going to be happy saving money by getting Nick stauskas but also getting a quarter of the production?

    I think the lowest we can go is probably 4/50- and that seems unlikely.

  25. Posted · Report reply

    Just now, J-Mac said:

    I can't believe I'm saying this but maybe we need to do more of a Fournier and Vuch pick in roll to get these guys going. Correct me if I'm wrong because I wasn't able to sit down and watch the game, just seeing plays here and there but DJ was getting doubled off the pick n roll every opportunity Toronto could and sense he's a small guard it was hard for him to hit Vuch over Gasol and green.

    Fournier and Vuch did try to run some pick and roll- it basically was terrible every time.

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