Wilbur

This years team was always a collection of parts. Some of them are redundant. For example we do not need both Hezonja and Fournier long term. We also do not need both Gordon and Harris long term. Had this team sustained its early season pace and been fighting for a top 5 playoff spot, there would be no need to tinker. But at this point if this rebuild is going to work the higher upside two way players need to get fed minutes whether they are ready or not. That means Fournier and Harris should be moved. If putting Vuc/Payton/Olidipo gets us a significant piece in return do it and don't look back.

18 games into his tenure, Skiles has to be commended for the increased value of the Magic's collection of assets. Fournier, Nicholson and Napier have way more value than they did 18 games ago. For Nicholson and Napier that means they now have some value. The interesting part to me is that this team is just starting to find its footing and discover an identity. By the trade deadline (2/18) this team should have a pretty good idea of what it is and where it is going. That is something that should have happened last year, but coaching got in the way. After playing the 42nd game this year, Rob will have about a month to decide how to rearrange the assets to give the Magic the best chance at sustained success. Hezonja and Gordon are so young there is no reason to worry about their value. Let them battle for minutes, improve in practice and appreciate. I'd be shocked if either were even in discussions at this point. Elfrid and Victor are the core of this team in my mind. I know the argument is that they can't play together. I see it as a learning curve not a problem. In a league that has become more dependent on players that can get their shot and create for others, we have two guys that can do that extremely well. The problem is that neither one has developed the consistency that is the hallmark of a very good player. The upside is that since we have two, it will be a rare night when both are having off nights. The obvious knock is that they both need work on their shot. I've read the argument back and forth on here and I'd agree if we were running an offense that requires them to stand around the perimeter and wait for an open look. What I've seen lately is an effort to move the ball around and find a shot and them put the ball in your playmaker's hands, let him break down the defense and get a good look or find an open teammate. Victor isn't starting now, but watch the offense when he and Payton are both on the floor. The ball doesn't get stuck. Instead of siotting on the wings Payton and Victor when off the ball cut to the rim looking for the pass form the other. Bottom lien for me is that it is way easier to find guys to stand around the perimeter than to find guys that can break down a defense. I do not mean to imply that I expect either player to develop into a top 5 talent in the league. However, I could see both of them being top 25 with their style of play. Th ability to create for others and play defense is what makes them valuable to build a team around; offensive development is a bonus. Fournier, Dedmon and Nicholson are all RFA this offseason. At the beginning of the year I'd have said Dedmon had more value than Nicholson, but Skiles' rotations have changed that perception. Fournier is obviously a valuable asset, but he isn't a number one of this team. Rob went through this ordeal with Tobias last off season. The question is if this team is above .500 does Rob keep the team together and allow these assets to reach RFA or does he convert them into new assets with longer team control. Hezonja and Gordon are theoretically waiting in the wings to pick up the minutes that Fournier and Nicholson currently occupy. Both Hezonja and Gordon have a higher upside than the player they would replace. If Fournier and Nicholson re not quietly shopped I will be very surprised. Tobias and Vuc are young assets already locked up on relatively large, but reasonable, contracts. Both are dynamic offensive players. Neither is a defensive force. Despite being 23 and 25 respectively, both seem pretty close to their ceiling as fringe all-star players. I see them as complimentary pieces on a very good team. They are the type of players that a team might want back if they were going to trade their all-star. Good, young and controllable. No all-stars out there at this point, but if one were available, I certainly assume that dealing Tobias and/or Vuc for the right guy is very doable. Barring a blockbuster, no reason to move them. If we do not get a dominate player out of Payton, Oladipo, Hezonja or Gordon maybe we develop the chemistry of the post Bad Boys Pistons. No rock stars, but a very competent band capable of great things. Frye and Watson: Vet presence that have money attached as filler in a trade. No reason for them to go anywhere. No reason for them stay if the right deal comes along. Napier and Marble: Napier may have some value as a back-up pg, but he and Marble are really in the same spot. Try to develop a game as a role player, hope you do that well enough to get some minutes and turn those minutes into a career. Napier has a path to minutes and so far is doing his part. Marble is buried behind Tobias, Fournier, Gordon and Hezonja. At this point he has to be praying he gets dealt so that he can get a path to some minutes.

I understand that. The point is do we want to go back to where we were with a bloated cap and a team that s play-off worthy but isn't a title contender. I read on "NBA Trade whatever" that some expert says that Fournier is a superior player to Oladipo and that is why Oladipo is on the bench now. I loved hearing that. I hope that NBA GM's share that expert's opinion because future picks and salary cap flexibility are worth way more to the future of this franchise than anything I foresee Fournier producing. Its not that he is an insignificant piece. He can be a very good instant offense bench piece in my opinion. But we are not at a plac ein our development where we should pay $10+ million a year for instant offense off teh bench. Especially when Oladipo, Gordon, Payton and Hezonja are going to need contracts in coming years. Those four players, despite the development of players Henny uncovered in trades, have the highest potential on the team. Getting into the play-offs would be great, but not if it comes at the expense of developing these four players. To me the question is does keeping Fournier, Tobias, Frye, etc. on the roster help develop these four players? I see Fournier blocking the development of Hezonja and potentially Oladipo. As such, I'd think Fournier may be priced to move given his pending FA and apparent interest around the league.

That's the dilemma. Do you break the continuity the team is creating and basically commit to this roster or do you move pieces to maintain some flexibility. I really bet Rob wishes there was a disgruntled superstar to deal for right now. That would make the decision clear. Do you give Fournier and Nicholson big contracts to keep them around after this year? Won't that cause cap problems for Victor and Elfrid when their rookie deals are up?

Wade gets the whistle, Vic doesn't.

If Rob's mission this offseason was to add shooters, he's succeeded. Now it is up to Gordon and Mario to have a coming out party, Oladipo and Payton to take the next step and Harris and Vuc to do what they do.

I liked the quoted part enough to click on the article. Then read the first non quoted paragraph where it said one of the reasons he was destined for stardom was that "he will have a more talented team surrounding him, as the starting lineup will be among the East’s best and will allow him to be even more of a force as he can concentrate on being a feared two-way player." I'm a homer, without a doubt. As homerish as I am, I've got to ask, did Victor get traded without me knowing it? I know we have the potential to be among the East's best starting lineup, but is anyone but this guy projecting it to be among the East's best this year? I do think his explanation of Skiles impact should be well taken. Success in the NBA is about knowing your role. None of the Magic players have seemed to have a consistent role. I kind of thought that was part of the tank. I can't imagine that continues this year.

I'm sure someone on here will find a stat that says Harris is better off the ball, but I don't see it. Harris is a mismatch on the offensive end in that he is too quick for most 4s and too big for most 3s (It is the exact opposite on the other end of the floor). As such, he can get a bucket in isolation more often than not. If he needs to get 10-15 shots a game, give him the ball in isolation when the second unit is in and run the offense through him. I'd much prefer his shots come at the expense of backups rather than from Oladipo and Vuc.

A few observations: 1. I don't see Harris in the starting line-up long term. The reason is that he is ball dominant. We have a ball dominant PG. If you take the ball out of Payton's hands, he is a liability on the offensive end until he proves he can consistently hit an open shot. Thus, Harris makes much more sense with Watson and Fournier waiting to bomb away from three on a kick-out. He makes way more sense as the 6th man. In addition to running with the second team, he can spell Payton when we go big with Oladipo at the Point, Hezonja/Fournier at 2g and Gordon at 3. 2. I keep hearing how Oladipo needs to improve his 3P%. Why? will going form 34% to 38% make people run at him any harder, account for him more often? That percentage increase over 5 3PA per game is less than a quarter of a point in any game. Where Oladipo needs to improve is getting some calls on his drives. That is supposed to come with experience. I think it also comes with having a competitive team. If he goes to the line 4 or 5 more times a game this season, he is a lock as a 20-25 ppg scorer. With Oladipo's ability to create off the dribble and play off the ball, he is a great sidekick on a championship roster. 3. Vuc is very good. 20/10 on a consistent basis is very good. Vuc is not great and likely will not develop into a truly dominating presence (Hakeem, Ewing, Robinson, Shaq). He strikes me as a #3 option on a championship roster. 4. If Harris, Oladipo and Vuc aren't the superstar that puts the team on his back, that leaves the hopes of the rebuild resting on Gordon and Hezonja. Both are young and gifted with elite athletic talent. That's a good place to start. They are also almost perfect trade chips for a disgruntled star.

Logically I don't understand the Exum argument. Assume Henny takes Exum at 4, who does he take at 12 that isn't redundant to a piece already on the roster? He'd have to assume that Gordon, Randle or Vonleh would have been available at 12? Clearly that wasn't going to happen. Was he supposed to take Payne at 12? When you look at last years draft it is hard to imagine how Henny could have gotten more out of that draft without having better lotto luck.

Agreed. Harris, Vuc and Mario doesn't offer much defense in the front court. If (and its a big IF) Gordon is the future of the franchise, he only grows with playing time. Roll him out there and give him the minutes. Best case scenario is that Mario has to force his way into the starting 5. If he doesn't get a starting spot by default, then this team has some major decisions to make. Seems to me that Mario's success would make Fournier a trade deadline asset. Even if he is part of the rotation, it seems as though he needs to be cashed in for an asset sooner rather than later.

You can argue how much lower than $5 million it gets, but surely you aren't saying that $30 million is correct?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2013/04/15/pro-athlete-tax-returns-illustrate-complexities-of-u-s-tax-code/ I don't think so. My point was that the Georgia state income tax doesn't come anywhere close to $30 million number being thrown around. Can we agree that the max it could be is $5.4 million (6% of $90 million)? Can we also agree that the convoluted tax structure identified in the article above likely lowers that 5.4 million and the lower sales tax and property taxes in Georgia will lower it even more? The player did not walk away from $30 million to play for the Hawks/avoid playing for the Magic. That's clearly not wrong.

I haven't run the numbers, but it is not accurate. Orlando Magic players pay state income tax anytime they play in a state with an income tax. The benefit of playing in Orlando is that at least half of your games have no state tax, but you still get hit up for state income tax by the other states when you play their teams. Seems strange but it is true. Looking at the $30 million number, that would be a third of his salary for state tax. The top bracket in Georgia is 6%. On $90 million you are looking at $5.4, but only half the games so the number is probably closer to slightly under $3 million. When you factor in that because Georgia has a state income tax it has lower sales tax rates and property tax rates, the tax issues are pretty insignificant. The choice was ATL where he knows they are a contender and he likes his teammates or ORL where he thinks they can be a contender and he might like his teammates.

I'll bite. How could the Magic not be part of a 3-way trade that includes Nik Vucevic? I understand what Schmitz is trying to say, but a reporter should be more clear... even on social media?

I'd like to see if we could entice Denver and GS into a bigger deal. GS gets: JJ Hickson and Ben Gordon (who it can waive). Denver gets: Frye and Orlando's 5th pick. Orlando gets: Lee, Nelson, Denver's 7th pick, GSW 30th pick and Denver's 57th pick. GS gets a cheaper replacement for Lee and saves luxury tax money. Denver likely gets Mudiay or whoever else is around after NY decides who they want. The price is swapping Hickson for Frye and giving up their 2nd. Orlando gets solid vet presence, fills some holes, still gets a quality player at 7 and banks future trade chips as I see the 30th and 57th either being moved or used on foreign players that come over later.

Help me out with the rules on this. Are the Magic and Harris prohibited from discussing anything related to a contract at this time? Is this like a dead period in recruiting where zero contact is permitted? Assuming it is not, what keeps the Magic from inquiring if Harris would like to spend next season playing with Kobe in LA? Assuming there is interest, the Magic would be free to discuss the possibility of a sign and trade with LA with the understanding that the second pick would be part of the package coming in the sign and trade, right? The Magic are the only team talking to Harris so it cannot be a tampering issue. Harris is not an unrestricted free agent so he is still a member of the Magic, right? Does the NBA tell teams that they cannot talk to their own restricted free agents? Assuming the above is legal, could our fifth be traded to LA in a separate deal?

As this season draws to a close and the offseason is considered, I think Henny should be given his due. When he took over this was an old team going nowhere with an immature star player. Looking at this roster I think an argument can be made that Payton, Oladipo and Vuc are among the best players at their position in the NBA under age 24. I read this board a lot and find the discussions very entertaining. So here is my question. Who are the best players in the NBA at each position under the age of 23? Mine: PG: Irving SG: Oladipo SF: Leonard PF: Davis C: Cousins

What realistic free agent signing(s) would require us to have $32 million in cap room this year?

I agree about Harris. Could he be used as bait for NY or LA to swap picks with us? Disagree about Victor. If this team was winning he would get calls at the rim. Bottom line is that Victor is 22 and is averaging about 18 a game. That is about all I see that he has in common with Harris. Victor makes his teammates better. Is he a #1 on a championship team? Probably not. But given the big step he has taken this year, I wouldn't be shocked if the Payton/Oladipo backcourt becomes the foundation for a consistent playoff run.

The Magic have a history of getting a franchise player in the draft and then screwing it up by over paying for surrounding talent forcing a drastic rebuild. From the looks of things we do not yet have a franchise player. Everyone on this roster is surrounding talent. We likely get a franchise player by trading for a disgruntled star. That takes assets. We can't afford to let one of our major assets walk without a return. Did that once. Didn't repeat the mistake with Howard. Shouldn't repeat the mistake with Harris. Get what you can and focus on developing Payton and Vic in the backcourt, Aaron on the wing and Vuc in the middle.

Vooch is coming very close to a big pay day. He'll likely never have more value than he has now. If you can turn Vooch into Parker I think you have to do it. If you are Cleveland does Vooch, Harris and #12 for Waiters and #1 get your attention? I'd view it as better than Utah's offer. Cleveland would resolve a personality conflict with their current star, have a nice front line rotation of Vooch, Zeller, Bennett and Harris for Irving to feed. They could pick up a shooter like Hood/Stauskus/Harris at 12. It provides cheap replacements that allow Deng and Hawes to walk creating room for the guy from Miami. Besides, Harris/Bennett could be a fall back if they can't convince their former star to come home. We do it because as good as Vooch is, paying him big money doesn't get us where we want to be. He is a nice piece, but he isn't a cornerstone. Parker can be a cornerstone. Like Vooch, Harris is not a cornerstone and will soon get expensive. Besides, Parker makes him redundant. The other reason to make the trade is that it makes 4 a bonus pick. Want to take Embiid, go ahead. If he sits out the whole year, who cares. If you don't want him, there is someone sitting out there in the 6-8 range that may want to take the chance enough to give you something worthwhile while still giving you the opportunity to get the PF/PG you want. You may even be able to move Afflalo to get another pick in the top 8. O'Quinn/Dedmon (Embiid) Parker/Nicholson/Maxiell (Vonleh/Randle/Gordon) Harkless/Parker Waiters/Oladipo Oladipo/Nelson (Exum/Smart) Pick two of the guys in parens. Those two, Parker and Oladipo would be something to get excited about. Harkless, O'Quinn and Waiters are potentially very good supporting pieces. However, unless we are ready to compete when their rookie deals expire, they are potential salary dumps to fill the missing spot through FA... if Henny hasn't already taken care of it in next year's draft. Maxiell and Nelson get one more year to show these guys how to be a professional.

We know he can do that, right? I mean he can play off the ball and drive to the hoop off screens. The question is whether he can be a long term answer at PG. This kid has seen huge improvement in his game over the last three years. The question now is whether the move to PG can help his handle and his court awareness meet that same learning curve. Stated differently, if you thought he'd come in and be a great PG from day one, you weren't paying enough attention to his game. The question is what are we going to see 50 games from now. If he can be the PG of the future, this team takes a huge step forward. If not, he is still a lock down defender at SG that can get to the rim when needed. Think about how badly we needed that 4 years ago. Thus, even if he has to play off the ball, it is still a step in the right direction.

Undoubtedly "You're back." Winston looked good. I hope the game in November has real meaning for both sides. Makes it more fun.

Start of football season got the better of me. moving on. I don't think it is about Baby, Jameer and Aaron. It is about Vic, Nik, Mo and Tobias. There are lots of teams that would like to have that quartet based upon potential. Now they have to go prove their worth. The question is are you a believer or not? Do you think that Tobias and Nik can improve their defense in the post? Do you think Vic and Mo can score enough from the perimeter to keep teams honest? There is basketball talent on this team. The only question in my mind is whether we will see it develop fully this season. Baby, Jameer and Aaron are on this team to make certain the kids have a veteran presence to turn to when they have questions and a role model to look to for guidance on how to handle yourself professionally. They will play, but if we are depending upon them to win games, something has drastically gone wrong with Henny's plan. I wouldn't be surprised to see two of the three gone by the trade deadline.