Otis IS a financially savvy GM!!!!

[SmackDaddy 30]

quote:

Originally posted by KillingInTheNameOf:

How much has this team really benefited from playing in the East, & how does it really stack up against the League? If we were in the West, I think a lot more fans would recognize this comedy of errors.

 

Or, potentially those areas of concern could be exposed during the playoffs???

[brownmagic 0]

To all of you who think this thread is flawed. Here are a couple of things you should consider:

 

1. Next year after all our contracts expire and Otis's extensions kick in our payroll will be $ 58.6 million dollars.

 

How our team will look over the next few years as contracts expire:

 

2008/09: 58.9 M - Dwight, Lewis, Turk, Nelson, Redick, Battie, Cook, Bogans, Foyle and Gortat

2009/10: 59.4 M - Dwight, Lewis, Turk, Nelson, Redick, Battie

2010/11: 43.0 M - Dwight, Lewis, Redick, Nelson

Current Salary Cap and Lux Tax: $55.6 M and 67.9 M

Predicted 2008/09: 58.6 M and 70.9 M

Predicted 2009/10: 61.6 M and 73.9 M

Predicted 2010/11: 64.6 M and 76.9 M

 

These are conservative predictions given that the past 5 year average salary cap increase has been $4.9 M.

 

Takeaway: some of you guys are exaggerating about our problems next year - you guys don't think we will be able to sign a decent bench and one extra starter for (70.9 - 54.9) = 16 M? Also take point 2 into consideration which gives us more room.

 

2. The team that will probably win a championship - Boston will have a payroll of $ 74.9 million next year with nearly all of their core players from this year intact. Another major contender - The Lakers will have a payroll of $75.3 million next year.

 

Takeaway: if you want to win you have to spend more money and take a luxury tax hit. And Otis has said that they are willing to do that for the RIGHT player. So You can't bash Otis for spending to create the massive improvement this year, although I do agree with you that Rashard MIGHT have been had for less. I say MIGHT because no one knows what exactly unfolded in the offseason. But Otis isn't a dumbass- THINK about it, if he could have signed Rashard for less he would have done it! After all he has his reputation at stake to. What is Rashard walked away and we signed the injury prone mess Gerald Wallace you guys would have been lambasting Otis anyway.

 

And the comment about Turk playing so well despite his salary being half of Rashard, well Turk is playing that well because of Rashard playing the PF and being unselfish with the ball. It is the trio of Dwight Rashard and Turk that is causing headaches for defenses - it is not Turk by himself, so while Turk is doing well, you have to keep things in perspective.

 

One more thing, please don't try and tell me how Rashard will be playing at 33/34 years old. Let the future unravel itself. you might be surprised and anything can happen in the NBA as seen by some of the trades this year.

 

 

3. You think Jameer Nelson is overvalued?

 

Lets look at his stats

 

PPG: 10.9

RPG: 3.5

APG: 5.6

MPG: 28.4

His salary: 08/09: 5.56 M, 09/10: 6.14 M, 10/11:6.7 M, 11/12: 7.3 M, 12/13: 7.88 M

 

Lets look at other COMPARABLE guards in the NBA:

 

Guard: MPG,PPG, RPG, APG,Current Salary (meaning it will probably go up in years to come)

 

Nelson: 28.4, 10.9, 3.5, 5.6

Bibby: 32.8, 13.9, 3.3, 6.0, 14.2 M

Miller: 36.8, 17.0, 4.0, 6.9, 9.90 M

Billups: 32.3, 17.0, 2.7, 6.8, 10.0 M

Mo Williams:36.5, 17.2, 3.5, 6.3, 7.8 M

TJ Ford: 23.5, 12.1, 2.0, 6.1, 8.0

 

Given that Jameer doesn't shoot the ball as much as the other guards and has this kind of production with high shooting %'s in limited minutes, he is doing pretty well and his contract is comparably fair don't you think? In fact I think Jameer will get better and continue his marked improvement this season and his contract will look like a steal in years to come. Guys the average NBA salary this year was $ 5.2 M. Jameer is much better than an average NBA player if you ask me regardless of some of his weaknesses.

 

Conclusion

 

1. Otis has done well this year - give him some credit he has given us a 52 win season.

2. If we want to be the best we cannot be constrained by the salary cap and as it seems the luxury tax threshold either.

3. Jameer's contract isn't really overvalued although this is controversial.

4. This team should be able to improve next year and build on this season so have some HOPE.

[SmackDaddy 30]

quote:

Originally posted by brownmagic:

2010/11: 43.0 M - Dwight, Lewis, Redick, Nelson

Current Salary Cap and Lux Tax: $55.6 M and 67.9 M

Predicted 2009/10: 57.6 M and 70.9 M

Predicted 2010/11: 60.6 M and 73.9 M

 

This portion of your post alone, without all the other fluff proves that in three years, (as of right now - not considering the addition of free agents and draft picks), that we will already only be 17 million below the cap and only 30 million below the luxury tax with only four roster spots filled and another 11 spots to go.

 

Now lets assume that this team adds a player with the MLE each year, which they will have available to them being over the cap. That's appx 6 million added each year for three additional roster spots, bringing us to roughly 61 million in salaries, which will surpass the salary cap and leave us only 13 million below the luxury tax with 8 more roster spots to fill.

 

Now lets also assume that we add 3 late first round selections at appx 1.5 million each. That's another 4.5 million in salaries bringing us to only 8.5 million below the luxury tax and with still another 5 roster spots to fill.

 

Considering that we'll certainly retain a few of our own free agents along the way, I think it's safe to say that we'll be over the luxury tax, hoping that a couple late first round picks are diamonds in the rough, and that a couple MLE players play above their heads.

 

No matter how you look at it, this team will be cap strapped with fingers crossed that a few miracles land in their lap.

[magicfreak#1 0]

That's worth it to me if we compete real hard here for the next few years, and isn't the cap going to keep rising every year.

[SmackDaddy 30]

quote:

Originally posted by magicfreak#1:

That's worth it to me if we compete real hard here for the next few years, and isn't the cap going to keep rising every year.

 

Those figures include escalation predictions.

[EnFuego 1]

quote:

Originally posted by KillingInTheNameOf:

quote:

Originally posted by SmackDaddy:

 

But seriously. What other industry do you find relative imbeciles running 9 figure corporations? Could you imagine if the CEO's of fortune 500 companies had as little formal business schooling as some of the GM's in professional sports? It's no wonder that professional sports organizations complain about profit losses every year. You hand the reigns to a mule, and the cart doesn't go very far.

 

He11, I even pointed out twice this year where Otis was quoted as saying something that clearly identified how little he understood about the very complex CBA. Those instances were reported in the media. Now imagine how many times a day he sits around his office scratching his head in private wondering how in the world he should go about doing his job.

 

Excellent Point!

 

There's a lot of justification going around because of what this team accomplished this season. But, as I highlighted in another thread, how much has this team really benefited from playing in the East, & how does it really stack up against the League? If we were in the West, I think a lot more fans would recognize this comedy of errors.

 

I don't think that Otis is a cap savvy GM. But comparing NBA teams to other businesses doesn't always work for me. To many owners, High-profile teams are toys. Only the uber rich can afford them, but that's what they are. Cuban couldn't care less if lost money every year. Dolan cannot be explained.

 

If there's a fault in RDV is that didn't enjoy the game enough to spend the money. His son-in-law fits the owner profile better. GMs are GMs for their talent knowledge. Otis cannot spend the money without authorization from the team president. Otis thought Rashard was worth the money, but Vanderweide had to ok it.

 

Teams lose money but rarely lose value so they are still a good investment for those that can afford it. Complaining about loses is mostly bargaining strategy whne collective bargaining time comes.

[magicfreak#1 0]

oh, ... mmm... good job!!! that's pretty tight work.

[KillingInTheNameOf 63]

My head hurts.

 

You make all these projections but ignore countless regarding our payroll. How could anybody watch Hedo this year and believe he isn't automatically opting out of his deal after next year?

 

Now, for the record, I couldn't care less if our payroll is 100M.

 

It's about building a championship caliber team! Once you've accomplished that, you can afford to be cap strapped to the point ownership will bare.

 

My problem, we are cap strapped, & we don't yet have a championship caliber team. See the problem?

 

So, now we must rely on a GM who has proven rather incompetent to value mine the NBA & college ranks to put us over the top. See that problem?

 

As optimistic as I am about the prospects of the upcoming draft, I am reminded that Otis has drafted the following players, Redick, Diener, Augustine. I am reminded that he has squandered 1 1st & 3 2nds outside these waisted picks.

 

When I can sit there on opening day and boldly predict Otis will allow all 3 expirings to expire on this roster, there comes a point when it's obvious he's incompetent.

[magicfreak#1 0]

Are you still going to call mr. Smith incompetent when we win the championship?

[The Solution 0]

quote:

Originally posted by brownmagic:

To all of you who think this thread is flawed. Here are a couple of things you should consider:

 

1. Next year after all our contracts expire and Otis's extensions kick in our payroll will be $ 54.9 (start with 54.8m, see my earlier post, + 2.1m Redick + 1.3m Foyle +0.7m Gortat -.8m contrib by NBA for Foyle's vet min = total of 58.1m not 54.9m.....I stopped reading after that.)

[brownmagic 0]

quote:

Originally posted by The Solution:

quote:

Originally posted by brownmagic:

To all of you who think this thread is flawed. Here are a couple of things you should consider:

 

1. Next year after all our contracts expire and Otis's extensions kick in our payroll will be $ 54.9 (start with 54.8m, see my earlier post, + 2.1m Redick + 1.3m Foyle +0.7m Gortat -.8m contrib by NBA for Foyle's vet min = total of 58.1m not 54.9m.....I stopped reading after that.)

 

Thanks for pointing it out. I was working of HoopsHype which tabulated the total incorrectly. I made the correction. You may read it now if you wish.

[The Solution 0]

quote:

Originally posted by brownmagic:

These are conservative predictions given that the past 5 year average salary cap increase has been $4.9 M.

 

Estimate luxury tax level has not increased that much...see:

http://www.sportscity.com/NBA/Salary-Cap#history

 

quote - Luxury Tax

08-09 70.0m (est)......2.1m

07-08 67.9m increase 2.5m

06-07 65.4m increase 3.7m

05-06 61.7m

 

Takeaway: some of you guys are exaggerating about our problems next year - you guys don't think we will be able to sign a decent bench and one extra starter for (70.9 - 54.9) = 16 M?

 

MY NUMBERS:

(70.0m - 58.1m) = 11.9m to fill 5 playing spots.

 

It works in 08-09 but the following years with the 3 contracts of Lewis, Howard, and Nelson, escalating +3.5m a yr., plus the other player escalators, you can see that the projected increase in the luxury tax will not be enough.

 

Also, Turkoglu extention will eat up any savings in Batties' contract when it expires.

 

Dwight should attract talent to this team for less money than they will receive elsewhere.. so we should get some help, but....

 

It didn't need to be this difficult.