jmmagicfan

I think it will take at least 39 wins for us to make the playoffs. It is conceivable that it will take 40. Detroit is sitting in 6th at 36-34, with 12 games left; 5 home, 7 away. They have away games at Phoenix and New York, and home games against Charlotte and Memphis; so they look to have a pretty clear path to 40. They also have an away/home match-up with Indiana, and we know how hard it is for one team to take both, so that gives them a good shot at 41 wins.They currently lead us in season series 2-1, we meet again in Detroit 3/28. If we win, it ties the season series. At that point the tie-break is conference record, we currently lead on percentage, but they only have five conference games left, we have nine. A tied record might get us in, it might not. I don't think we can catch Detroit. Brooklyn is currently in 7th at 37-36, with 9 games left; 4 home, 5 away. They have a beastly finishing schedule. They only have two games left against sub-.500 teams; at the Lakers this Friday, and home vs. Miami the final game of the season. They have seven games in between all against playoff teams. Their path to 40 is extremely difficult, as they would probably have to upset at Portland, or home versus Boston or Indiana; as well as taking both the LAL and Miami games. They won the season series with us 2-1; so we would need to have a better record, a tie won't do it. We might have a shot to get past Brooklyn, if they get on a losing streak, it could snowball. Miami is currently in 8th at 34-36, with 12 games left; 4 home, 8 away. Their final schedule is tough, but actually not as bad as Brooklyn's. They have five games left against sub-.500 teams (one vs. us). They also have an away/home match-up with Boston. If they lose to us, but take the other four games vs. sub-.500, and manage to take the home game vs. Boston; that still puts them at 39 wins. We lead the season series 2-1, so if we beat them, we take the season series, and a tied record would get us the playoff spot. We currently lead them in both divisional and conference records, so a tied season series might still get us in; but we probably need that win to get to a tie. We are currently in 9th at 33-38, with 11 games left; 5 home, 6 away. We have home games against New Orleans, Memphis, New York, and Atlanta. I think we need to win all four of those games to have a shot at the playoffs. We would then presumably need to win 2 of the 3 away games against Miami, Detroit, and Charlotte. Our remaining games are home vs Philadelphia, away versus Indiana, Toronto and Boston. I think that there is still a path for us to get to the playoffs, as I think 39 wins might do it.

The only way we get to the $16M in cap space that ?4TW was alluding to is if we waive our RFA (Martin/Grant/Birch), and do not resign Vucevic and Ross. Waiving and stretching Mozgov at that point would open up about another $11M. That would leave us with $27-27.5M in cap space, but only ten players under contract (assuming we pick #11/sign pick at 120%). That might be worthwhile doing if we know that we can sign a multi-time, all-star caliber free-agent. But, you have to make your pick beforehand to fill one of your holes, and you have no guarantee of getting that big name free agent. It's a pretty big gamble and swing for the fences. This is what you would be starting with/trying to sell said free agent on the team he is joining, our first round pick, and: Augustin/Briscoe/Fultz(?) Fournier Isaac/Iwundu/Frazier Gordon Bamba I think it more likely that we try to retain Ross, and Birch, (and Vuc??) and try to fill in with the Mid-Level and/or the Bi-Annual Exception. I think the Waive/Stretch provision may be used on Mozgov if it looks like we need to do that to stay under the luxury tax; but I don't have a feel for the "new" ownership group now that Rich DeVos is no longer with us.

That's assuming that WeltHam spoke with Cliff prior to signing him, since Cliff had him in Charlotte last year. I know his numbers were inflated his rookie year by being on a (very) bad Philly team, and I can see him not being able to stick in Houston, when you already have Harden/Paul eating up most of the PG minutes; but I was surprised that Chicago didn't give him a chance earlier this year instead of waiving him after the trade. How poorly must we think of Grant and/or Caupain to bring in MCW on a 10-day tryout? The only other alternative I can think is they don't want to pull Caupain up permanently until the G-League finishes, since he is very important to Lakeland, so they are going to fill with a couple 10-day contracts in the meantime.

I haven't seen much of him in the last few years, but he was a former rookie of the year, so he has to be better than Grant?? I'm also guessing that they aren't convinced Caupain is up to it.

A 6’4” 230+ lb. SG/SF who has a 7’ wingspan, and can play some PG and some small-ball PF. He just strikes me as a very WeltHam kind of player. Super energy, tough-minded, jack of all trades. If there isn’t a clear, starter-level caliber player; then I can see him as a good utility guy.

Which range is that? If we make the playoffs, then we will most likely be picking in the 15-17 range; if we don't make the playoffs, then we will most likely be picking in the 11-14 range, with an outside chance of picking 1-4. I do have White in the mix with either the 11-14 or 15-17 range, just not sure if he will play himself above that range. I think there are quite a few guys in that range that might be an upgrade to our bench, just not sure there are any starters in that range. Darius Garland will probably go before then. There is some chance that Romeo Langford, Jarrett Culver, Nassir Little, Keldon Johnson or Coby White is still available at 11. I don't see us going for De'Andre Hunter, or any of the frontcourt guys there. If we are below that, I think we will end up picking between Kevin Porter, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Coby White, or KZ Okpala. I think there is an outside chance we go for a Tre Jones or, my personal favorite dark horse, Talen Horton-Tucker.

I haven't seen him play, but one thing that strikes me, and not in a good way. He is .385 from 3PT, but he is only .352 for all FG - which is okay if you are using him as a 3 and D kind of guy; but it makes me wonder how bad his other shot selection/finishing is that he is shooting .328 from inside the arc (2.1/6.4).

That's why I say bring up Caupain for a while - he is already on a 2-way, is familiar with the system, and we don't have to waive anyone to make a space for him in the short-term. If he isn't better than Grant, you send him back down to Lakeland. If he is, then you look at waiving Grant and converting Caupain for the rest of the season. I'm not sure if you can sign anyone to a 10-day contract unless you have a roster space open. We currently don't, so that makes trying out another G-League player a bit more difficult.

I must confess, I am more than a little intrigued with Talen Horton-Tucker - a 6'4", 239lb guy who is primarily a 2/3, but can play some backup pg, and has the muscle/drive to play some small ball PF. Plus, I've heard he has a 7'0" wingspan; so he may be a WeHam kind of guy.

If we don't make the playoffs, then I am talking to trader Danny in Boston about trading that 10-12 pick for their two later first round picks, Clippers/Boston, currently around 18 & 24, or maybe to San Antonio about theirs and the Raptors (19 & 28). I think Boston might be amenable to a deal, if they are re-signing their guys, they may not have room for 3 more guaranteed contracts.

Yeah, I kind of wonder with our shooting woes why someone like this guy hasn't had a shot, instead of an Amile Jefferson.

I think that if Briscoe is out much longer, we need to look at bringing Caupain up from Lakeland and at least give him a shot rather than play Grant.

Who? Adams or Siebert?

Our problems have been the same throughout most of the last seven years. 1) Our backcourt depth is sorely lacking. DJ has been playing close to his ceiling almost all of this year, and the last part of last year; but when he goes to the bench we have problems. Briscoe has been playing well, but with him out, we are stuck with Grant. Hopefully we can get Fultz right, and we should let Grant become a free agent - no qualifying offer. Fournier has not had a good year; but even when he is playing well, he tries to do too much in the 4th quarter. When he plays within the offense, keeps the ball moving, and waits for an opening, he can be very good; but he always tries to force it in the 4th. He may have to go, I just worry about what can we get in his place. TRoss has had an outstanding year, and was just plain off his game last night. Hopefully that late "3" will snap him back out of that rut. I think Iwundu is coming around, and his defense is good. I think we need at least one more quality wing. I'm not sure if Frazier will get there, certainly isn't there yet. 2) We don't have an "ice water in his veins" closer. Vucevic gets the yips in close 4th quarters and seems to miss baskets he was making all game long. Fournier tries to do too much, and Gordon just doesn't seem to have that killer instinct. I'm not sure if Kelle Fultz does either, not much data on the NBA level to assess that with him. TRoss does have that "keep shooting" mentality that is part of it, and I'm beginning to have hope that Isaac may have it. I don't know about "blow up the team"; but I definitely think they are more sweeping changes coming this summer than there have been in the past. Here is what I would like to see: 1) Guarantee Briscoe for next season, I think he's earned the chance. Do not make Grant's qualifying offer, let him become unrestricted, and/or waive him at the right time. 2) Trade Fournier - maybe Denver would go for a Gary Harris/Fournier swap. I might even go for a bad contract, if it comes with a later first-round (20-25ish). 3) Re-sign TRoss. Guarantee Iwundu for next season. 4) Make Birch's qualifying offer so he remains Restricted. Do not make Martin's qualifying offer - I might be interested in re-signing him, but not at $7.25M. If he gets another offer, so be it. 5) I'm on the fence about Vuc - I think you have to at least discuss re-signing him, but I would look for something similar to Gordon's contract at the most. Incentives built in for defensive goals/rebounds. 6) Probably need to Waive/Stretch Mozgov to be able to upgrade the team, and still stay out of the luxury tax.

Except ESPN still has us down around 19-20

If Indy manages to pull together and play well enough to remain in the 3rd spot without Oladipo, I'm not sure that that is a wise wish. They still have pretty good guard/wing play, with Collison/Joseph/Evans/Matthews/Bogdanovich - so I think I would rather play Boston with their current dysfunction. I'm just not sure that Boston can get to 3rd without curing some of that, and we would still need to pass three teams for us to get 6th and meet them in the first round. We will see.

Port sixers?

Philly beats Miami and we are in a tie with them (ahead on %) and Portland beats Brooklyn we move to 2 1/2 back for 6th. GO TRAIL-SIXERS! Or is it SEVENTY-BLAZERS?

Dark Horse pick - Talen Horton-Tucker - a 6'4" 239 lb. utility man. ESPN ranks him as #6 SF, #21 overall and says this about him. "Pre-Draft Analysis A hefty playmaker who can shift anywhere from floor general to power forward. He's competitive and powerful with an excellent feel for the game, polished handle and developing 3-point stroke. Despite standing 3.5 inches shorter, Horton-Tucker compares favorably by other measurables to Draymond Green, and his ability to slide up to the 4 on defense yet operate as a point guard on offense could make him appealing to outside-the-box front offices." I could see us picking him if Fultz is playing well, and we are in the 16th-17th slot.

I am kind of assuming that we are looking for a PG or a Wing in this draft. So for this draft there are three real possibilities of where we end up drafting in the first round, and one quite unlikely possibility: 1) We make the playoffs - this means that if we have the worst record among playoff teams, we would pick 15th. Odds are good even if we make it as the 6th seed, we would still have a worse record than the Western Conference #8 seed, so in the "make the playoffs" scenario we end up picking between 15th - 17th. Options there may include Nickeil Alexander-Walker, KZ Okpala, Kevin Porter, Coby White, Tre Jones, Ayo Dosunmu. 2) We just miss the playoffs - this means if we don't get lucky in the lottery, we end up picking in the 10th-14th range. Options there may include De'Andre Hunter, Keldon Johnson, and maybe Darius Garland or Jarrett Culver. Also, any of the players listed above as non-lottery. 3) We miss the playoffs, get lucky in the lottery and end up picking in the 2nd-4th range. Our options then will include at least one of RJ Barrett, Ja Morant, Cameron Reddish, and should also include Romeo Langford, Nassir Little, and any players I mentioned above. 4) Unlikely possibility - we miss the playoffs, win the lottery and end up picking Zion Williamson #1. Now, my picks for each scenario depend on some other assumptions, and things we might see. Assumption #1 - we manage to re-sign TRoss to a new contract, and Assumption #2 - we see signs of Fultz becoming 70% or more of what people thought coming out of college. My second pick in each scenario is a Fultz recovery of less than 70%. My third is a Fultz bust (I don't think it likely, but prepare for anything) or BPA. The higher I am picking, the more likely I am to pick BPA regardless of need. 1) Nickeil Alexander-White, Coby White, Tre Jones 2) Jarrett Culver, Darius Garland, Keldon Johnson (if Culver/Garland both gone BPA) 3) Ja Morant, RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish (BPA) 4) Zion Williamson (might trade for assets + top 4 pick this year)

I managed to watch 90% of the game (missed part of the 1st), but I missed most of Clifford's presser at the end. What I caught was at the end of it, and he seemed almost giddy; like he was trying not to gloat at how well they played. I thought his smile might break his face.

As I said, I only caught the end of the game, so I didn't see AD playing at all. Everything I've read about the game, be it this forum, the ESPN game recap, Davis' own comments after the game, seems to indicate that the whole NO team kind of phoned it in this game. I hate myself for saying this, but in all fairness, even during the height of the Dwightmare, I don't remember Dwight ever just phoning it in like that, even when he was playing through the back injury. I gotta say, if this is true, it reflects even more poorly on AD than the original request.

I would hope for a deal similar to Gordon's, possibly with a team option for year 3. Vuc's game isn't really based on athleticism, so it should age fairly well; but it is largely based on effort, so incentives could be key.

I’m just concerned that this is only “contract year” Vucevic. I hope that this isn’t, but I think we will re-sign him, so I guess we will find out. I do hope we can trade/upgrade Fournier.

I only caught the end of the game, HOA meeting. Only odd things I see, looks like DJ and TRoss both had off nights. Everything okay with them?