jmmagicfan

And that is how you elicit offers from another GM who is set on a specific player in the top three.

I was just commenting on how skinny, and Manute was taller, but probably as skinny. I think this is a fair comparison.

Bol Bol and his father Manute both said hi. (Very impressive in Manute’s case)

Yeah, we get it, you hate the tank. Mostly I don’t like it either, but if you’re in the bottom 2 or 3 of the conference with 12-15 games left, then you might as well.

I both agree and disagree - I agree that drafting a player who is strictly a good shooter will not fix our offense. In point of fact, I think the biggest problem with our offense has been the same for most of the last ten years - inadequate point guard play. Good shooting isn't just about shot making, it is also about shot selection, and getting the ball in the right place and the right time to maximize a shooter's ability. Being able to get his own (good) shot, or set someone else up to take a good shot is the primary criteria by which a point guard should be evaluated. On nights when Cole's shot was falling, he actually did a reasonable job of setting up others; but when it wasn't, it adversely impacted the rest of his play, and those around him. When he was pushing to "fix" his own offense, it frequently meant he was missing the open player, or getting out of position to make those passes. When Fultz came back, the improvement on the other players was immediate and obvious. Remember, for a good deal of the season, RJ Hampton was playing the backup PG minutes - which he hadn't really done before. Our second unit looked better with a "real" point guard, even with the G League points. Getting Fultz, Anthony, and Suggs all healthy and playing together should dramatically improve our team. If we do get adequate PG play, they have to be able to set up and deliver to someone who knows how to get to the open spot, and is a good enough shooter to then make the shot. I will give you an example - JJ Redick came into the league as a really good shooter, but he was awful the first couple years and couldn't get/stay on the floor. Once he got into shape where he could be constantly moving instead of trying to be a stationary shooter, his game took off. Guys having to follow him around all kinds of screens and picks would end up giving him space/time to get set to shoot, and a decent pass brought that aspect of his game (shooting) to the forefront. This is kind of where I disagree - if the guy you draft does all the little things, moving around picks and screens to get himself set to shoot, but can't then hit the shot, it is wasted effort. This is where I bring up Wes Iwundu. Wes always played with good energy, and moved well, getting himself in good shooting space, but (especially the first couple years) he couldn't make the shot. He did get better, but never as good as Redick, because he wasn't a good shooter to begin with. I honestly believe that it is extremely rare to be able to make a poor/mediocre shooter into a really good one. I think this is also where we bring up Terrence Ross. When he is in shape, and playing with his normal athleticism, he is capable of being "The Human Torch"; but as the wear and tear of a season (and age) diminish his athleticism, his shots become more erratic. Some players engage their legs more than others as a "jump" shooter, and I think this is very true of TRoss, and why I think it may be time to move on from him.

I’m not saying he is a barrel to the basket a la those guys; but for a one-on-one guy to workout with and be physical against Chet, he’s probably our best option under contract. I might say Lopez, but he’s a free agent, and I think WCJ is quicker anyway.

I think WCJ would do; he’s big enough and fast enough to really make Chet work and physical enough to run him over a few times.

It's good to have hope - I mean look at Embiid, he was out most of his first couple years in the league as well. Look at Klay Thompson. It's not unheard of for him to come back as well or better. There were questions about whether Paul George would ever play again after his injury. The difference between these guys and others seems to be how recent vs. how far in the past. Hopefully that bodes well for JI. I still think part of him being out the full year had to do with his Covid stance, combined with the injury(s), it just didn't make much sense to bring him back at the end of the season.

I will admit to this - I want us to get the first pick, so we are guaranteed of getting our first choice; and yet, I am nervous about how the front office's board might look. Will their first choice be the same as mine? Right there with you, junkie!

1) I think the best comp for Smith is Rashard Lewis, with a floor of Ryan Anderson. 2) Jaden Iven - reminds me of Cole right now, but hopefully his ceiling is more Jaylen Brown or Dwayne Wade. 3) Shaeden Sharpe - we haven't seen him against sufficient level competition, so floor to ceiling is very wide - could be anything from Wes Iwundu to Jaylen Brown to Kobe Bryant. Currently the great unknown. 4) Chet Holmgren - could have a similar career to Porzingas with better D (v. talented, but injury-prone), or could be comparable to Kevin Garnett. 5) Paolo Banchero - unfortunately I see a lot of Julius Randle here; which isn't bad - just not the outcome you want in a top-7 pick. Best case might be Jason Tatum, but I don't think he will reach that. 6) AJ Griffin - I'm actually higher on Griffin than this first appears - I see a ton of potential, but I'm concerned that the injuries will prevent him from reaching it. For those of us older folks - Reggie Lewis (80's Celtics) or his dad Adrian Griffin. Current players I would say a ceiling of Andrew Wiggins, Jimmy Butler, or Klay Thompson 7) Keegan Murray - floor of Brandon Bass, probably more Tobias Harris, ceiling of a young Blake Griffin.

There are pros and cons and question marks for all of the top 6-7 guys, so I can probably talk myself into any of them once the front office picks one. Having said that, my list currently looks like this: 1) Jabari Smith - does he have that go-to ability and personality? A better Rashard Lewis? If so, then absolutely. 2) Jaden Ivey - plays a bit out of control at times, BBIQ? Reminds me a bit of Cole. 3) Shaedon Sharpe - no history against the next level of players (college), but looks good on paper/individually. 4) Chet Holmgren - may be a unicorn, but frame/build lead to durability concerns 5) Paolo Banchero - foot speed? defensive dedication? 6) AJ Griffin - injury history? go-to personality? 7) Keegan Murray - tweener? can he play the PF at the NBA level?

I think it's more likely that we try to trade the two 2nds for a late first, maybe with a team that has salary cap issues already. It would give those teams two shots at non-guaranteed players that they may be able to slide into their roster cheaper than a guaranteed first. There are a lot of teams already "locked in" to being over the cap/luxury tax who may want to trade out of a late 1st for that reason. These teams are already over the regular cap before any summer activity: #17 Houston (signing a top-5 puts them over the cap) #19 Minnesota (already over the cap) #21 Denver (already over the luxury cap line) #23 Brooklyn (already over the luxury cap line) #24 Milwaukee (already over the luxury cap line) #26 Dallas (already over the luxury cap line) #27 Miami (already over the cap) #28 Golden State (already over the luxury cap line) Locking in a good player for the (relatively) cheap, guaranteed contract that goes with a late first rounder might be preferable to some of these teams rather than trying to sign cheap free agents. I don't expect that Houston, Minnesota, or Miami would trade their late 1st, as they aren't pushing the luxury tax issue too badly at the moment. For them, locking in a late first might be preferable. Denver, Milwaukee, Dallas, or Golden State may be the most likely to go for that kind of move for current roster reasons. Brooklyn is probably not, since their issues are more injury/continuity based; but who knows - the first round exit may prompt them to make some major changes. I think we go that route only if there is a player we are really high on. I can also see the F.O. holding onto our 2nd round picks for two bites at the apple to find someone who may have slipped out of the first round. At #32 and #35 that isn't really a stretch. You may also see a trade after the fact for "draft rights" once the guys are already picked.

Yeah, the THT one really irritated me as I was very high on him, we managed to grab him in the 2nd (I thought he might go in the 1st), and then we gave him away to, of all teams, the da- - Lakers. I wasn't quite as high on Vanderbilt, but again, he has turned out to be a reasonable player and we had him/gave him away cheap. Hopefully, we do better this year.

I know that we are all sick of losing, but I would like to take this opportunity to remind everyone - we didn't do a good job evaluating what we actually had during the beginning of our last rebuild, and consequently made the mistake of choosing to retain the wrong players (Payton, Fournier, Gordon) and trading others (Oladipo, THarris). I am not a Mo Bamba fan, nor am I a RJ Hampton fan; but I do occasionally wonder if I am rushing to judgement on them. This front office does seem to have a history of letting young players have the time to develop, so I would not be surprised to see us re-sign Mo Bamba and not make any major trades. I think they may try to move TRoss, because he's 31 and doesn't fit the time frame of the rest of the team. I think they will try to keep Gary Harris as the primary veteran, since he is 3 years younger than TRoss and plays more consistent defense. I wouldn't be surprised to see Robin Lopez back, because I think his work ethic, and always being ready is a valuable example to our young players. I think they also have established a level of trust and rapport with him. Obviously, if you have a chance to make a trade for a difference maker, you have to consider it - but let's also remember, many people thought Serge Ibaka would be a difference maker! We gave up Oladipo and the draft rights to Sabonis for him. How did that work out? Chicago gave up WCJ, the pick that became FWagner, and another pick for Vucevic - bet they wish they could get a re-do on that now. We always need to remember, if another team is willing to trade an all-star, there is a reason. (Obviously, if the All-star has requested/demanded a trade, that's a little different)

Ha, ha, ha! Of course, knowing how much this FO seems to value second round picks, you may be right.

I’m of two minds on this. Yes, you can probably get a late first round pick trading 32 & 35, and if there is a specific guy you are really high on, you pull that trigger. But, you are now locked into at least a two-year guaranteed contract. At 32 and 35, you may still grab someone who “slipped”, but now your options are open, and you get two bites at the apple.

I would have to say I agree with most of it actually. Bamba - Last time I looked his Qualifying Offer is about $10.1M and the mid-level exception is about $10.25M, so most teams could potentially make him an offer; the question then becomes - will anyone? Is there another team in this league that thinks he has shown enough to justify that kind of money or more; the answer is, maybe. I think this front office will probably make him the QO, and try to either 1) sign him to a 2-3 year deal with lots of incentives, or 2) let him play the year and punt the decision to next summer. To me, he is our biggest question mark. Mostly agree that he stays. G Harris - I think if you can resign him for around $15M per, you have to do it. A returning veteran, who gives you tough defense and a scoring punch, and decent leadership; I don't think you let that walk away if he wants to stay. Mostly disagree, I think if he wants to and is a reasonable price, he stays. WCJ - He's under what now looks like a brilliant contract, improved almost every facet of his game, and had a great year. Why are we even talking about him? He's not going anywhere. Agree. Ross - I actually agree with this one. A couple more bites at the trade apple - I think one of those bites takes. He may start the season in Orlando, but I doubt he will finish it here - especially if G Harris stays. I agree, T Ross' days are probably numbered - trade deadline at the latest. JI - Nobody is trading for this contract unless he comes back and looks great; in which case, he is under a good contract for another couple of years, why would we trade him? I agree, he probably stays. Lopez - Yes, we may have too many bigs to keep him, especially if we draft Banchero. However, he has already shown he is a great end-of-bench guy, always ready to come in and contribute. As far as I can tell, everyone on the team loves the guy; and he's a reasonably cheap, very professional, veteran presence. Both WCJ and Moe Wagner have shown the ability to play some PF, and either Holmgren or Smith would probably play PF for the first couple of years in the league anyway. I disagree, I think Robin stays. Bonus - I think Moe Wagner's contract gets guaranteed. A young big who can back up both PF/C, has a reasonable outside shot, plays with energy and attitude, already knows your system, contributes to the integration of his brother, and costs you under $2M. To me that's another no-brainer.

We need guys who can shoot, score, and sufficiently physical to stay healthy/on the floor. I have no doubts about Holmgren's abilities to shoot, score, and defend on the college level - obviously he has shown he can do that at an extremely high level. His college numbers are, quite frankly, a little mind-blowing. My concern is, can he do all that while playing in an NBA season (70+ games), against men that he will be giving up 30-40 pounds (or more) to on a regular basis? I don't know where, if, and whom he has been working out with since his season ended. His body type does make me wonder if he can put on additional muscle, and, if so, how will it impact his game. I'm not saying don't draft him, I'm not saying he won't be a great NBA player - I'm saying that there is cause to wonder/be concerned about it. If he comes into the combine with an extra 25-30 pounds of muscle, and looks as good in workouts as he did in college, I will be the first one to say draft him. If he comes in and measures out an inch or two shorter than listed, still weighing 195 pounds; that to me might be a red flag that he either a) can't add weight/muscle, or b) he didn't put in the work to address that concern. I honestly hope he comes to the combine (at least to do the measurements/testing) and has put on 15-20 pounds of muscle. I don't expect that he would be able to add 25-30 pounds that quickly, but 15-20 would be a big step in the right direction and alleviate some doubts and concerns.

I will never, ever, ever pull for the Heat - that's just wrong! In point of fact, I always root for whoever is playing against the Heat! My underdog is New Orleans, but I also have a soft spot for Boston, having grown up in New England.

As we go into this draft, we should definitely remember that our ultimate goal is to win a championship. Having said that, as bad as we have been the last 10 years, let's try to remember and put things in perspective. There are 11 teams in the league that have never won even one championship, and 6 of those have never even made the finals. We have, twice. I'm not saying rest on our laurels, there haven't been many for the last 10+ years, but we have gotten as far as the Pacers, Nets, Suns, and Jazz, all of whom have been in the league 15-22 years longer than we have. https://basketballnoise.com/how-many-nba-teams-have-not-won-a-nba-championship/#:~:text=There are 11 active NBA,Nuggets Magic and the Timberwolves. Team First Year in NBA Best Finish In History Indiana Pacers 1967 NBA Finals Runner Up Brooklyn Nets 1967 NBA Finals Runner Up Denver Nuggets 1967 Western Conference Finals Runner Up Phoenix Suns 1968 NBA FInals Runner Up Utah Jazz 1974 NBA FInals Runner Up LA Clippers 1984 Playoffs Charlotte Hornets 1988 Playoffs Minnesota Timberwolves 1989 Western Conference Finals Runner Up Orlando Magic 1989 NBA Finals Runner Up Memphis Grizzlies 1995 Playoffs New Orleans Pelicans 2002* Playoffs *Originally The Hornets, changed name to Pelicans in 2013 when Hornets returned to Charlotte (I might personally have reversed the Hornets and Pelicans - I know that technically the team history was "returned" to Charlotte, but please; for continuity's sake, the staff, players, et al weren't returned. The Hornets were really a whole new team at that point.)

I agree it is very difficult to rank a guy who hasn’t played a game beyond the high school level. Sharpe has some other things to work with, but you definitely have to bring him in and work him out, preferably with and against other players. Remember we traded back for Hardaway based on workouts, and Shaq’s word.

We currently have three picks in this draft: unknown between 1-6, #32, and #35. I don't see us using/signing all three of these picks; if for no other reason than we are ridiculously young already. We currently have nine guys under contract for next year, (ten if we guarantee M Wagner soon). Of those ten players, only TRoss (31) will be over 26 by the start of the season. We have a couple of guys we need to make a decision on Qualifying Offers if they are to remain Restricted Free Agents (Bamba/Bol). We also need to think about which (if any) of our Unrestricted Free Agents we may want to try and re-sign. Gary Harris - 28 years old - Free Agent - I think he is worth resigning if we can get him at a decent price ($13-18M per), otherwise maybe help him and us with a sign & trade for assets? Tough defender and his offense was finally coming back after a long time out with injury. We might be able to keep him for closer to the mid-level, but I doubt it. Robin Lopez - 34 years old - Free Agent - I think he is worth resigning if we can get him for about the same price as this year ($5M). Decent vet who is always ready, comes in and plays hard, and is probably a decent locker-room/practice court guy. If he can help get some of our other bigs as consistent on hook shots, that alone may be worh it. Moe Wagner - 25 years old - currently non-guaranteed, but we can retain for about $1.8M next year. To me this is a no-brainer, a young backup big (PF-C) who plays tough, gets under opposing teams skin, can occasionally have a big night, and has contributed to his younger brother's transition to the NBA. I'm not sure why you wouldn't keep him. Bol Bol - 22 years old - another injury prone string bean. This guy makes Bamba look overweight, and even Chet looks wider. His Qualifying Offer is only about $2.7M, but I'm not sure he's worth that much risk. I think I would have to punt, but for some reason, they kept him when they waived PJ Dozier who I actually thought they might keep. Mo Bamba - 24 years old - this to me is the biggest question mark on the summer. Do you make him the Qualifying Offer ($10.1M) to keep his Restricted status, or do you just make him an Unrestricted Free Agent and potentially have him walk away for nothing? You could potentially still keep him at a lower salary, or help someone else do a sign & trade to get a few assets for him. Cannady, Brazdeikis, Schofield all strike me as end of bench or 2-Way players, but I might want those two, 2-way contracts for my draft picks. I think if we wind up with a top-3 pick in the lottery, we don't make the QO to either Bol or Bamba; but if we get pick 4-6, we might try to retain Bamba. I think Bol is gone, unless they have seen a lot that they like on the rehab/practive court. I don't think we make QO to both in any scenario. So, with the nine under contract, guaranteeing Moe Wagner, re-signing Harris and Lopez, and signing our top-6 pick puts us at 13 players under contract; which leaves two "full" roster spots and two "2-way" spots to fill, and leaves us about 5-7M under the cap. We could potentially sign another vet in that space, and then use the mid-level exception of $10.26M for the final roster spot, and use the 2-ways for either or both of our 2nd round picks. I'm just not sure who we could get here for those amounts. Most of the guys available for the 5-7M slot might be more inclined to take a vet-minimum to sign with a contender. I think it's going to be a busy summer for the Front Office.

I believe that I posted this earlier, but it bears repeating - Kevin Durant was listed at 6'10" and 215lbs vs. Holmgren at 7"0 and 195. The problem is, you could look at KD and see from his frame that he would be able to put on an extra 20-30 pounds - you don't see that looking at Holmgren. He reminds me more of Manute Bol - 7'7" and 201 out of college. Even Shawn Bradley looked more substantial (7"6"/235). Holmgren's shoulders don't look promising for his ability to gain weight and strength. Mo Bamba was 6'11" (no shoes) and 226 coming out of college and he still looks thin. Is Holmgren talented, absolutely; does he play with energy, absolutely; can his bodily physically take the contact, wear and tear of the NBA, that is the elephant of a question in the room. (Or the giraffe!)

Murray currently plays the PF role in college - he is the proto-typical tweener on the NBA-level and will probably play a lot of SF in the NBA. That's not a knock on him, just that he is more of a mid-range, offensive-minded player. The question becomes, is he more Charles Barkley, Tobias Harris, Jeff Green, Obi Toppin, or Pascal Siakim? Any of those is possible, and none of those outcomes is awful, but you wouldn't necessarily want to use a top-5 pick on three of those projections. He could also be Anthony Bennett (I don't think so, but who knows). Personally I think he is more Tobias Harris, and I would be okay with him if we fell into the 5-6 range.

The QO for Mo is $10.096M, the MLE is $10.264M. Quite frankly I think either is too much, considering how little consistency he has shown; but is it worth losing an asset? Nothing to say you have to offer anything close to that as a multi year deal. Would I hate him taking a one-year QO deal, and having to prove he can be consistent now he is finally healthy? I might take a flyer on that, or do a sign & trade if an offer comes along.