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MightyMouse

ESPN insider article on All-Decline Team

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The NBA is something of a zero-sum game: For some players to improve, it means that an equal number of players must get worse. So it only follows that in the wake of my All-Breakout Team earlier this week, we have to bring up the more unpleasant topic of which players are likely to see their output decline.

 

Thanks to injuries, a couple of examples are really obvious: Yao Ming and Leon Powe spring to mind, for instance. That's not quite what we're after here, however. I'm going to introduce you to 16 players who were active on opening day, but nonetheless are extremely likely to see their numbers drop a notch or two from a season ago.

 

The envelopes please:

 

 

Group I: The Fluke Rule players

 

In a good season, I can build half my All-Decline Team from this group alone. Alas, this season there are only two players the Fluke Rule applies to, instead of the usual six or seven. For those who don't know, the Fluke Rule applies to any player 28 or older whose PER jumps by more than three points in a single season. On average, his PER drops by nearly three points the following season, with more than 90 percent of such players seeing a drop of some kind.

 

 

 

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Basically on LeBron it says that he had one of the best statistical seasons ever, so a decline is likely. Doesn't mean he wouldn't put up the best numbers in the league.

 

For Jameer it says he shot so well last year, he's unlikely to repeat. Shot 56% on 2's away from the basket, a category nobody else even broke 50% in. So he's likely to shoot worse, and his numbers will tick down. He does think Meer's got a bright future ahead of him.

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