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CTMagicUK

2021 NBA Draft Thread

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There is a ~0% chance this FO keeps the 2nd round pick -- hate to say it, but that's how they operate with 2nd rounders.  Add the number of young guys already being developed on this roster and it's a wrap.

Hell, I'm not even convinced they keep the Bulls pick if it does convey this year.

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2 hours ago, ML6 said:

There is a ~0% chance this FO keeps the 2nd round pick -- hate to say it, but that's how they operate with 2nd rounders.  Add the number of young guys already being developed on this roster and it's a wrap.

Hell, I'm not even convinced they keep the Bulls pick if it does convey this year.

I could see them packaging some of the picks to move up depending on how the lottery turns out.  Too early to tell.  

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2 hours ago, ML6 said:

There is a ~0% chance this FO keeps the 2nd round pick -- hate to say it, but that's how they operate with 2nd rounders.  Add the number of young guys already being developed on this roster and it's a wrap.

Hell, I'm not even convinced they keep the Bulls pick if it does convey this year.

The last two picks we had in the 30s this FO used them. 

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48 minutes ago, CTMagicUK said:

The last two picks we had in the 30s this FO used them. 

By my count, WeltHam have made some sort of decision on 11 2nd-round picks during their tenure.  Well, technically 10 2nd rounders + 1 late first (25th pick in 2017).

Of those 11, 9 were traded (5 in draft night deals, 4 in non-draft night deals).

2 were used to select players that the Magic kept: Frazier (awful) & Iwundu (fine for his draft slot) -- yes, both selected in the 30s.

 

I find it highly unlikely that a front office who trades 82% of 2nd round picks at baseline will keep 3 draft picks in a year where they already have 7 players needing significant development on the roster.  Crazier things have happened but I would be very surprised.

 

 

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2 hours ago, ML6 said:

By my count, WeltHam have made some sort of decision on 11 2nd-round picks during their tenure.  Well, technically 10 2nd rounders + 1 late first (25th pick in 2017).

Of those 11, 9 were traded (5 in draft night deals, 4 in non-draft night deals).

2 were used to select players that the Magic kept: Frazier (awful) & Iwundu (fine for his draft slot) -- yes, both selected in the 30s.

 

I find it highly unlikely that a front office who trades 82% of 2nd round picks at baseline will keep 3 draft picks in a year where they already have 7 players needing significant development on the roster.  Crazier things have happened but I would be very surprised.

 

 

We'll find out soon I guess.

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If you look at the guys on our roster next year, 7 are 23 or younger.  2 top 10 picks will make it 9.  We could really use some vet leadership.

Quote
Gary Harris 27 SG Bird $20,482,143 ($20,482,143) $20,482,143 11.35 -
Jonathan Isaac 23 PF Bird $17,400,000 ($17,400,000) $17,400,000 9.64 $52,200,000
Markelle Fultz 23 PG Bird $16,500,000 ($16,500,000) $16,500,000 9.14 $18,500,000
Terrence Ross 30 SG Bird $12,500,000 ($12,500,000) $12,500,000 6.92 $11,500,000
Mohamed Bamba 23 C Rookie $7,568,743 ($7,568,743) $7,568,743 4.19 -
Wendell Carter Jr. 22 C Rookie $6,920,027 ($6,920,027) $6,920,027 3.83 -
Cole Anthony 21 PG Rookie $3,449,400 ($3,449,400) $3,449,400 1.91 -
Michael Carter-Williams 29 PG Early Bird $3,300,000 ($3,300,000) $3,300,000 1.83 -
Chuma Okeke 23 PF Rookie $3,277,080 ($3,277,080) $3,277,080 1.82 -
RJ Hampton 20 PG Rookie $2,303,040 ($2,303,040) $2,303,040 1.28 -
Dwayne Bacon 26 SG Minimum $1,824,003 - $1,824,003 1.01 -

 

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5 hours ago, CTMagicUK said:

We'll find out soon I guess.

The one 2nd rounder to keep was Talen Horton Tucker....unfortunately, traded on draft night. 

This FO has been making good picks....Chuma @ 16 and Cole @ 15 are winners. 

They'll be on the clock soon with 2 more to select. One (1) and eight (8), right?

 

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4 hours ago, Albert Lergier said:

The one 2nd rounder to keep was Talen Horton Tucker....unfortunately, traded on draft night. 

This FO has been making good picks....Chuma @ 16 and Cole @ 15 are winners. 

They'll be on the clock soon with 2 more to select. One (1) and eight (8), right?

 

We don't know where those picks will be but I like your optimism.

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Here's my argument for using #33 this year (I admit it's quite possible the FO will trade it but here's why I wouldn't)

- This is a pretty deep draft in my opinion. Look a few pages back and you'll see a list of like 10 players I'd draft with our 2nd rounder. There might be 40 guys in this draft worthy of a first round pick. To me #33 is an incredibly low risk, high reward shot at finding a contributor. 

- We're not really in a position to pass on talent. We have a lot of guys to develop sure but we also don't have a lot of guys that you say "Yes. This player is absolutely going to be here when we're winning playoff series" so I say keep taking swings at guys and hoping you hit. 

- Kind of in line with the last point, what's one more guy? Will adding one more guy, one who'll probably spend serious time in the G League, really add much more development burden to the coaching staff? 

- When we traded away 2nds in the past it was often to avoid adding too much youth to a team that was trying to win via collective experience and continuity. That's not really where we are now. 

- On top of that the 2nds we traded away in the past were middling to low 2nds mostly. If you trade pick 45 away for a future 2nd you've basically got a coin flip that the future 2nd you receive will be better than the one you sent out. And given the hit rate of 2nds it kind of makes sense value wise to trade those picks away because a future 2nd can get you James Ennis at the deadline to help you push for the playoffs but the random guy you selected with a 2nd rounder probably cant. Pick 33 is different, if you trade it for just a single future 2nd (+ cash probably) there's a very good chance that the 2nd you eventually get back will be of worse value. Thus the best use of it as an asset is to either trade it for multiple future 2nds (could happen if a team really likes somebody there), or select a player you believe has 1st round value. 

- Finally there's the 'we need vets not another young guy' argument. I go back and forth on this personally because I do think we need solid veteran guys to help guide our younger players but I also think that the kind of vets this team is going to attract aren't worth sacrificing development opportunities for. Because any good veteran player is going to a contender or would only come to us for a significant pay rise (above the vet min). I'm not overly interested in giving random vets who might be out of the league otherwise a random pay day (see: Ben Gordon, Ronnie Price, Jason Maxiell, Willie Green. Does anybody look back on those signings and say 'boy they really helped our young guys develop'?) Any vet we sign I want to be someone who actually helps us win basketball games or someone who's essentially going to be an extra coach and who we plan to add to the coaching staff once they retire. Otherwise I don't see the point personally.

 

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1 hour ago, CTMagicUK said:

Here's my argument for using #33 this year (I admit it's quite possible the FO will trade it but here's why I wouldn't)

- This is a pretty deep draft in my opinion. Look a few pages back and you'll see a list of like 10 players I'd draft with our 2nd rounder. There might be 40 guys in this draft worthy of a first round pick. To me #33 is an incredibly low risk, high reward shot at finding a contributor. 

- We're not really in a position to pass on talent. We have a lot of guys to develop sure but we also don't have a lot of guys that you say "Yes. This player is absolutely going to be here when we're winning playoff series" so I say keep taking swings at guys and hoping you hit. 

- Kind of in line with the last point, what's one more guy? Will adding one more guy, one who'll probably spend serious time in the G League, really add much more development burden to the coaching staff? 

- When we traded away 2nds in the past it was often to avoid adding too much youth to a team that was trying to win via collective experience and continuity. That's not really where we are now. 

- On top of that the 2nds we traded away in the past were middling to low 2nds mostly. If you trade pick 45 away for a future 2nd you've basically got a coin flip that the future 2nd you receive will be better than the one you sent out. And given the hit rate of 2nds it kind of makes sense value wise to trade those picks away because a future 2nd can get you James Ennis at the deadline to help you push for the playoffs but the random guy you selected with a 2nd rounder probably cant. Pick 33 is different, if you trade it for just a single future 2nd (+ cash probably) there's a very good chance that the 2nd you eventually get back will be of worse value. Thus the best use of it as an asset is to either trade it for multiple future 2nds (could happen if a team really likes somebody there), or select a player you believe has 1st round value. 

- Finally there's the 'we need vets not another young guy' argument. I go back and forth on this personally because I do think we need solid veteran guys to help guide our younger players but I also think that the kind of vets this team is going to attract aren't worth sacrificing development opportunities for. Because any good veteran player is going to a contender or would only come to us for a significant pay rise (above the vet min). I'm not overly interested in giving random vets who might be out of the league otherwise a random pay day (see: Ben Gordon, Ronnie Price, Jason Maxiell, Willie Green. Does anybody look back on those signings and say 'boy they really helped our young guys develop'?) Any vet we sign I want to be someone who actually helps us win basketball games or someone who's essentially going to be an extra coach and who we plan to add to the coaching staff once they retire. Otherwise I don't see the point personally.

 

Well put. That is why I might try to re-sign James Ennis, because he plays with the kind of controlled energy, and generally within the team concept. Our young guys can learn from that. Bacon on the other hand, doesn't play with that control, or within a team concept. Is Bacon young enough to learn better? Maybe, but I don't think he's shown the BBIQ it takes. He's like a young gambler, who doesn't yet "know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away ..." I'm on the fence with Wagner and Brazdeikis - they both seem to be more controlled energy (ala Ennis), but I'm not sure if there is sufficient upside on either. I do prefer both of them to Bacon, though. 

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