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CTMagicUK

2021 NBA Draft Thread

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Here's where it is at as of this morning:

1) Houston 16-54   with two games left, no one is going to "catch" them, they will have the worst record. They play the Clippers and Atlanta. 

2) Detroit 20-50  with two games left, playing Denver and Miami, unlikely they will win another.

3) Oklahoma City 21-49 with two left, playing Indiana and LA Clippers, Indiana still battling for 8th, and a single play-in game instead of 9th/two play-in games, Clippers are still battling for the 3/4 seed, but even if they rest people, I doubt they can out-tank OKC.

4) Orlando 21-48 with three games left, playing Atlanta & Philadelphia (2), both opponents have something to play for. Philly might need both wins to keep #1 in the East and avoid potential matchups with Brooklyn or Milwaukee until the East finals. Definitely the easier path for them. 

5) Cleveland 22-48 with two left, playing Brooklyn and Washington. Brooklyn is still hoping to grab that #1 in the East, but Washington is locked in to #10 and the play-in. I can definitely see them resting players the last game of the season, with the play-in right away.

6) Minnesota 22-47, with three left, playing Denver, Boston & Dallas in that order, at home, with Boston/Dallas as back to back. Denver is fighting for the 3/4 seed with the Clippers so unlikely to rest people, Boston is currently in a battle for 7/8/9 so unlikely they rest people, Dallas is fighting to avoid the play-in, so unless the Lakers lose another game (or two), it is unlikely Dallas will rest people either. 

If all six teams "lose out", we will be tied for the 3/4 and end up with a 13.2% or 13.3% shot at the first pick, depending on the "coin toss".  

 

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5 minutes ago, jmmagicfan said:

Philly might need both wins to keep #1 in the East and avoid potential matchups with Brooklyn or Milwaukee until the East finals

If Philly beats Miami tonight they'll be 2 games ahead with 2 games left. I don't know who holds the tie breaker there but ideally for us Miami win tonight to ensure Philly have reason to field a full strength team in at least 1 of the 2 games. 

5 minutes ago, jmmagicfan said:

Boston is currently in a battle for 7/8/9 so unlikely they rest people

Boston did just lose Jaylen Brown for the season and have racked up some horrible losses (they were the last win OKC got and just lost to the Cavs) so I can see them losing that game to Minnesota.

You're right about every other game though doesn't look like there are many wins for our competitors. Saying that though you never know if one of these teams might want a lower seed to avoid a bad matchup in the playoffs. Particularly in the West.

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52 minutes ago, jmmagicfan said:

If all six teams "lose out", we will be tied for the 3/4 and end up with a 13.2% or 13.3% shot at the first pick, depending on the "coin toss".  

 

87% chance we don’t get the first pick.  I believe it’s very unlikely our draft picks will have a major impact.  We are going to need to figure out how to put together what we have.  

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4 minutes ago, CTMagicUK said:

If Philly beats Miami tonight they'll be 2 games ahead with 2 games left. I don't know who holds the tie breaker there but ideally for us Miami win tonight to ensure Philly have reason to field a full strength team in at least 1 of the 2 games. 

Boston did just lose Jaylen Brown for the season and have racked up some horrible losses (they were the last win OKC got and just lost to the Cavs) so I can see them losing that game to Minnesota.

You're right about every other game though doesn't look like there are many wins for our competitors. Saying that though you never know if one of these teams might want a lower seed to avoid a bad matchup in the playoffs. Particularly in the West.

I do hope that Miami wins tonight (never thought I'd say that!), as that does help keep Philly playing to win. Brooklyn plays their last two at home; they have Chicago on Saturday and end with Cleveland on Sunday. Philly does own the tie-break with Brooklyn, so their fate is in their own hands. On the other hand, because of the play-in games, they will get extra days off before the first round, so less incentive to rest players than usual. 

I agree, Boston might lose to Minnesota, but that doesn't change the fact they still have something to play for. Two losses could drop Boston from 7th or 8th with one play-in to win, down to 9th and needing to win two. 

The West is packed with so many close races, I'm not sure you could really make that happen. Right now the Clippers are up a game on Denver for 3/4, Portland & Dallas are tied, with the Lakers one game back for 5/6/7, and Golden State & Memphis are battling for 8/9. Utah has one less loss than Phoenix and plays @OKC and @Sacramento to end the season. Phoenix plays Portland and has two games at San Antonio to end the season. The only team really close to being "locked in" to a specific position out West is San Antonio in 10th, and they aren't 100% - they are 3 games behind Memphis for #9 (no real incentive to move up), but they are only two games ahead of Sacramento. With games at New York tonight, and then Phoenix coming into San Antonio Saturday and Sunday, even they aren't locked in - three losses could put them out of the play-in. Not likely since Sacramento is at Memphis tonight and tomorrow, and then has Phoenix at home on Sunday, but still possible. My point is, the West has so many seeds up in the air, no one can really control who they will play until possibly the last game. 

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6 minutes ago, JJZFL said:

87% chance we don’t get the first pick.  I believe it’s very unlikely our draft picks will have a major impact.  We are going to need to figure out how to put together what we have.  

True, if we end up tied for 3/4, we would still only have about 50/50 odds on a top 4 pick, but it also means we can't fall any farther than 7th or 8th.

Best case scenario would be we win the lottery, Chicago loses the rest of their games/Toronto wins theirs, and Chicago winds up with the 7th pick, so we get #1 and #7.   

Worst case scenario is we win a couple of games and end up with the 6th odds, Chicago and other teams behind us jump into the top 4, and we end up dropping to the 10th pick only. The odds on the worst case are really slim, but not yet impossible. Can you blame us for wanting to make them zero?

Most likely odds are that we end up with #6 and Chicago's pick is #8 or #9 based on the current standings. 

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48 minutes ago, JJZFL said:

87% chance we don’t get the first pick.  I believe it’s very unlikely our draft picks will have a major impact.  We are going to need to figure out how to put together what we have.  

It's not so much getting the 1st pick (it would be nice) that is so important, it's eliminating the possibility of falling all the way to #10. That would really suck! 

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2 hours ago, jmmagicfan said:

Here's where it is at as of this morning:

1) Houston 16-54   with two games left, no one is going to "catch" them, they will have the worst record. They play the Clippers and Atlanta. 

2) Detroit 20-50  with two games left, playing Denver and Miami, unlikely they will win another.

3) Oklahoma City 21-49 with two left, playing Indiana and LA Clippers, Indiana still battling for 8th, and a single play-in game instead of 9th/two play-in games, Clippers are still battling for the 3/4 seed, but even if they rest people, I doubt they can out-tank OKC.

4) Orlando 21-48 with three games left, playing Atlanta & Philadelphia (2), both opponents have something to play for. Philly might need both wins to keep #1 in the East and avoid potential matchups with Brooklyn or Milwaukee until the East finals. Definitely the easier path for them. 

5) Cleveland 22-48 with two left, playing Brooklyn and Washington. Brooklyn is still hoping to grab that #1 in the East, but Washington is locked in to #10 and the play-in. I can definitely see them resting players the last game of the season, with the play-in right away.

6) Minnesota 22-47, with three left, playing Denver, Boston & Dallas in that order, at home, with Boston/Dallas as back to back. Denver is fighting for the 3/4 seed with the Clippers so unlikely to rest people, Boston is currently in a battle for 7/8/9 so unlikely they rest people, Dallas is fighting to avoid the play-in, so unless the Lakers lose another game (or two), it is unlikely Dallas will rest people either. 

If all six teams "lose out", we will be tied for the 3/4 and end up with a 13.2% or 13.3% shot at the first pick, depending on the "coin toss".  

 

This is exactly the best we can have at this time. We take it. As important our pick is, the Bulls pick is big too. Good luck buddies.

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My ideal scenario is we get Cade and Moody as they fit PERFECTLY.

Fun fact: they were roommates at Montverde academy.

Basketball gods please make this happen!

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4 hours ago, Jay Magic said:

My ideal scenario is we get Cade and Moody as they fit PERFECTLY.

Fun fact: they were roommates at Montverde academy.

Basketball gods please make this happen!

That’s some good intel. Wow

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7 hours ago, ROCK LEGENDS PHOTOGRAPHERS said:

It's not so much getting the 1st pick (it would be nice) that is so important, it's eliminating the possibility of falling all the way to #10. That would really suck! 

It’s the same old discussion as to whether it’s worth teaching your young players not to play too hard at the end of the year in order to pick 7th instead of 10th.  Since I believe that the focus should always be on competing as hard as possible, and that’s the best way to develop your players, I don’t think the trade-off is worth it.  We will just disagree on this.  

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2 hours ago, JJZFL said:

It’s the same old discussion as to whether it’s worth teaching your young players not to play too hard at the end of the year in order to pick 7th instead of 10th.  Since I believe that the focus should always be on competing as hard as possible, and that’s the best way to develop your players, I don’t think the trade-off is worth it.  We will just disagree on this.  

I totally agree. We don't have the firepower suited up to win unless we play a team that is throwing the game. The the young ones get all the burn and play as hard as they can!

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